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Things are about to get worse for generative AI

garymarcus.substack.com

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Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is that those are really trivial or extreme examples. What we should take from this: 1. Generative AI systems are fully capable of producing materials that infringe on copyright. 2. They do not inform users when they do so. So potentially any output could be infringing copyright source material, even from some obscure but still protected corner of the web, and anyone using that output could be exposed to la…

Why isn't the solution a strong disclaimer when the user generates images along the lines of "beware that the images produced may not comply with copyright laws in your country" etc etc? Any artist can privately draw a picture of Mario, what's so different about having an LLM generate that image?

> what's so different about having an LLM generate that image?

You don't have to pay 20 bucks a month for a private company to reproduce Mario manually at home for a start... you also can't reproduce Mario in many poses at an industrial scale solo. The list can go on, and we have seen OpenAI change their license agreement, so the risk can change over time.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#102
post #40

We need clearer laws that only apply to Generative AI. Too many comparisons and parallels are being drawn to actual people. "Like what if someone learned how to draw by watching trademarked material, and then accidentally produced it" But these models aren't people and they exist in a category of their own. I do think it's somewhat trademark infringement by these models, also that it should be allowed and that ultima…

That's where I'm at. Dall+E spitting out C3PO should be entirely ok, unless I'm making money with the output, Disney should pound sand.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#103
post #71

Maybe the way to go is to do pre-training on copyrighted data, then to thoroughly shake things up so that hopefully only some useful abstract structure of world knowledge remains and then train that on carefully selected licensed data.

If the models weren't just doing massively complicated interpolation then this would probably work.

Honestly the only way to deal with this is to change the training data and retrain everything (probably at the cost of performance).

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#104
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do. If the incentive to actually create is gone.

If making money is the only reason to create maybe it’s good if they stop.

Oh yeah, I forgot artists are spiritual creatures who don't have to eat. It certainly isn't the only reason to create but a necessary condition to actually be a professional artist, no ?

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#105
post #6

I imagine the argument might be like this: I hire a session musician to play on my new single, paying him $100. I record the whole session. I ask him to play the opening to "Stairway to Heaven" and he does so. "Well, I can't use that as a sample without paying" "Ok play something like Jimmy Page" "Hmm, still sounds like Stairway to Heaven" "Ok, try and sound less like Stairway to Heaven but in that style" "Great, I'l…

But it's not like that. Examples of clearly infringing prompts in TFA were as vague as "animated plumber". Asking your session musician for something "melancholy" and having them pass off Stairway to Heaven as original would be unreasonable.

If you ask a human to draw "videogame plumber" they will correctly infer that you mean Mario and draw that.

The model isn't doing anything deliberately evil. It's doing exactly what it has been asked.

The problem is people are expecting it to have detailed knowledge of trademark law and avoid infringing trademarks, which it hasn't been even asked to do.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#106
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developing AGI is a matter of national security. "Content" isn't.

US media is a huge cultural influence. It takes a ridiculous amount of mindspace globaly. However, with youtube&tiktok this seems to be changing - the most important influence is not from Hollywood but ”random” youtubers. So, ”content” is waning in influence for sure, unlike hardcore national security things like US dollar, the carrier fleet or ballistic nukes. Or AI.

but then no one can stop national intelligence agencies to get these "random" influencers narratives under their control, am I right?

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#107
An argument I've seen made in pro of AI in past threads about this is that "scraping is legal."

Yeah, downloading the content of a webpage may be legal, but redistributing it isn't.

I wish people stopped trying to make these things seem more important than they really are just because IT people call them "technologies". Blockchain isn't a technology. HTML isn't a technology. React isn't a technology. And AI is now not a technology.

When I see ChatGPT or OpenAI, I don't think of "technology". I think of a program. Software. Because that's what it is. You don't say "none of the laws that exist in this world apply to this" every time you release new software.

I bet many people can't tell the difference between a quick answer from Google and a text generated by ChatGPT on Bing. They just see the output.

All that amazing capability of generative AI? That got old fast. It was groundbreaking for one instant. Now it's just an app that generates images. Just another piece of software. Nothing special about it.

Torrenting and other p2p file transfer protocols didn't get a pass for inventing groundbreaking ways to break the law. I don't think OpenAI will get a pass for doing the same.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#108
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

creation competition. I agree with your premise but the chess analogy falls flat. We might, legitimately, see an enormous dropoff in people creating original works of literary, musical, and visual art (without AI).

This is an centuries old argument. Most people don’t create to make money, they create because they __have__ to. If those motivated purely by money stop creating little of value will be lost

Most people who create for a living aren't motivated purely by money, but are driven by the necessities of capitalism to do so. You're presenting a false dichotomy, pretending to care about the quality of art, but really like everyone, you just want other people's work for free.

Great art - especially in modern times when that art involves expensive education (which if you're American must be paid for with interest) and the incorporation of technology and equipment - takes time and effort. If that time and effort cannot be paid for, then no matter how passionate an artist may be, unless they have sufficient personal wealth, that art must suffer.

Even the great artists of old needed patrons, because they needed to eat like anyone else. Michaelangelo didn't paint the Sistene Chapel ceiling for the love of the game, nor would he have.

I guarantee you that the working artists who have already lost commissions and work due to AI care about their craft.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#109
post #12

Or... things are about to get worse for copyright holders. I don't see any developped country pressing the brake on AGI in the near future to protect a few copyright holders from getting "stolen" in hypothetic scenarios.

I think in more simpler terms, I think we're looking at the dip after the hype. This is the peak for this generation of proto-AGI and there's not much to lose from over-regulatuon(put quotes around "over").

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can easily see it happening. "Content" is at least as big business as "tech", and the people in it are politically better connected.

Developing AGI is a matter of national security. "Content" isn't.

Two questions:

(1) Do you think "developing AGI" a realistic, achievable goal? If so, what evidence do you see that we're making progress on the problem of "general" intelligence? Specifically, what does any of that have to do with Large Language Models?

(2) Are there any "national security" applications of Large Language Models that you're aware of?

It seems to me that it would be a very difficult case to make that the national security impact from allowing the rule of law to erode would be somehow outmatched by the (speculative) wager that somehow LLMs have some relevance to the national security. It would be an even harder case to make that any of this has something to do with "general" intelligence.

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