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Google's True Moonshot

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Re: Google's True Moonshot

#101

Post by Mattasher »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #95
rdsubhas wrote: post #86

Big companies drag themselves down – not because they can't innovate – but because they can't go "all in" into innovations which compete against their real cash cow. An AI assistant fundamentally hits at Google's gut: Search ad revenue. Yeah, Google can make dozens of AI demos. Are they truly ready to put Gemini as the default interaction model, pitting it against their search? Can they give super accurate answers to…

Their ad revenue is a local optimum. They could reach new highs with alternate business models but only at the cost of short term reduction in revenue from ads. And this is of course risky. So, they keep on dancing around the topic without ever committing to anything. An additional problem they have is that running AI at scale is super expensive. Even for Google. Add to that legal risks, pressure from regulators in d…

> They could reach new highs with alternate business models but only at the cost of short term reduction in revenue from ads.

Yes. Long term, if you control peoples attention and their flow of information, you will almost certainly figure out a way to control their pocketbooks.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#102

Post by broast »

terryf wrote: post #34

Is it possible that google will build the next great AI? Of course. But right now they really really seem to be failing at it. Maybe the core tech in gemini is great. But it's nowhere. Just as an anecdote, I tried to actually pay google for an AI product they claimed to have launched - the image generation, Imagen 2. And apparently, I can't. Even after tens of e-mails and a call with an account manager, the response…

They're behind in selling for now but ahead in research - who is to say that selling access to your AI is really where value and growth will be in the future?

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#103

Post by ddol »

bambax wrote: post #77
terryf wrote: post #34

Is it possible that google will build the next great AI? Of course. But right now they really really seem to be failing at it. Maybe the core tech in gemini is great. But it's nowhere. Just as an anecdote, I tried to actually pay google for an AI product they claimed to have launched - the image generation, Imagen 2. And apparently, I can't. Even after tens of e-mails and a call with an account manager, the response…

Does anyone remember Google Video? It was a horrible experience. The upload process was a pain, and I think some approval was needed at some point, or you had to be sponsored by someone already on the service. Then Google bought Youtube. In the AI space it's unclear what/who they could buy -- OpenAI being obviously out of reach -- but it's possible they could find a good match.

> In the AI space it's unclear what/who they could buy

They bought the most promising AI startup in the world for $650m and failed to integrate it or make use of it until ChatGPT was released.

That was DeepMind, nine years ago.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#104

Post by thomashop »

hef19898 wrote: post #98
gwicks56 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will be more like: "Pixie, reply to that email for me" "Pixie, book that car service for me and remind them they promised a free brake fluid replacement" "Pixie order all the ingredients I need to make my wife her favourite dish" "Pixel, buy everyone in my family birthday presents" I will 100% pay for that capability, and as someone that uses GPT4 to basically do my job for me, it really does not seem that…

I won't let any AI read my e-mails, let alone reply to them. I discuss car services when I drop of the car at the workshop, and the workshop confirms the details. I don't want an AI to know anyones favorite dish, and delivery services suck for fresh ingredients anyway. And I think about presents before buying them, that is a crucial bit of gifting things to people, especially if you care about them. By the way, if I…

I think you'll find yourself in the minority soon.

My grandma said, "I won't send any email through a computer, I prefer to write it by hand and have it delivered by a human being".

Although maybe it will be even weirder with AI assistants sending birthday greetings to other people's AI assistants and then your AI assistant summarizing who sent you birthday greetings.

The fact is the next generation moves on and uses new tools. I don't think AI will replace our jobs but people who are good at their jobs can, with the help of AI, outcompete people who are just good at their jobs but don't use AI.

The parent you were replying to may currently be able to automate what they are doing with the help of AI but I don't think that will last long as jobs end up requiring a mix of human and AI capabilities.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#105

Post by acdha »

benjijay wrote: post #83
willvarfar wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm expecting: * Microsoft to do it for business users * Google pixie does it first for personal use. Android phones might even momentarily be more desirable than iphone * Apple eventually get there, for their walled garden * Amazon etc fall totally behind * And, years later, users of google docs are still waiting for basic AI help writing docs whilst google completely doesn't try in that space

Just to be that picky guy; > Android phones might even momentarily be more desirable than iphone Most of the world is already there, and it's not momentary. iPhones only dominate the market in North America - Android has the majority basically everywhere else As for docs, I can see them pushing for more Gemini integration depending on how M$ Copilot goes when it reaches saturation

Android is there because it’s what the cheapest devices use and most of the world does not want to pay even iPhone SE pricing. That’s relevant because the play described of making the Pixel lineup more compelling will hit the same problem if it’s tied to more capable hardware which is outside of the budget for many people.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#106

Post by acdha »

nextworddev wrote: post #17
fumar wrote: post #13

The lengthy post boils down to this quote " Google could build the AI to win it all" but it is not guaranteed. I appreciate the context as someone who hasn't kept a close eye on Google's AI efforts, but Ben doesn't cover why Google has a right to win outside of search data. Interestingly, there is no mention of AWS and Amazon's wider efforts to create AI tools. There is hype around chat bots but what is the likelihoo…

AwS is just a reseller of 3p LLMs at this point (via Bedrock). If you don’t believe me try their 1p LLM (Titan)

That may be true but consider that AWS was “just” a reseller of Intel servers a decade and a half ago (remember people saying S3 was too expensive and hard to use with tons of competition, too?). Integration matters and if they do a good job of making it easy to build into applications I’d easily believe that the path for a lot of businesses will involve a partner they already have extensive relationships and experience with.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#107

Post by acdha »

paganel wrote: post #65
roughly wrote: post #35

What's always frustrated me about Google is that I would pay a substantial amount of money on an ongoing basis for the capabilities they could provide, but I'm absolutely not willing to pay what they're asking and what they're asking is tanking their products. Google as a products and services company - Google with Apple's business model - is something I would've been a happy customer of for the last decade or two ea…

There's also the very, very big (and very hidden) opportunity cost of always incurring the danger of having your Google account getting nuked by Google itself, with almost no possibility of recourse, for some small payment inconsistency related to any of their products, no matter how big or small. That's why I personally would never pay Google other than for very basic and needed stuff like GMail, I wouldn't want my…

I think that’s the same problem: once they did the acquisition with DoubleClick, everything solidified into “we don’t have to do customer service, our customers are advertisers” at the same time they were trying to push everyone to turn more substantial parts of their lives than search over to them.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#108

Post by acdha »

amadeuspagel wrote: post #82

People act as if there are two companies (Google and Apple) and two business models (ads and selling devices). In fact Google is perfectly capable of charging a subscription in a context where ads don't make sense, like Drive, or even as an alternative, like Youtube Premium. Many people would pay a subscription for an assistant that's actually good, and of course having such an assistant integrated with email and cal…

Google does have non-ad revenue but it doesn’t seem to be enough to affect the culture: Drive customers get the same level of support as ad-supported search users. I’d like that to change but having used GCP I’m not sure that can happen before they have a better CEO.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#109

Post by acdha »

rob74 wrote: post #23

> Yes, Android has its advantages to iOS, but they aren’t particularly meaningful to most people, and even for those that care — like me — they are not large enough to give up on iOS’s overall superior user experience. That's not the real question though - the real question is whether people find iOS compelling enough to pay a premium for using it and put up with the ecosystem lock-in. And the user experience is only…

> the real question is whether people find iOS compelling enough to pay a premium for using it and put up with the ecosystem lock-in

It’s only paying a premium at the lowest end of the market - if you’re buying a Pixel, you’re paying as much or even more than someone buying an equivalent iPhone. The ecosystem switching cost is real but given how most Android users I know complain about app developers favoring iOS, I’m not sure how substantial that is.

Re: Google's True Moonshot

#110

Post by amadeuspagel »

acdha wrote: post #108
amadeuspagel wrote: post #82

People act as if there are two companies (Google and Apple) and two business models (ads and selling devices). In fact Google is perfectly capable of charging a subscription in a context where ads don't make sense, like Drive, or even as an alternative, like Youtube Premium. Many people would pay a subscription for an assistant that's actually good, and of course having such an assistant integrated with email and cal…

Google does have non-ad revenue but it doesn’t seem to be enough to affect the culture: Drive customers get the same level of support as ad-supported search users. I’d like that to change but having used GCP I’m not sure that can happen before they have a better CEO.

How does Drive customer support compare to Dropbox?
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