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Ozone hole goes large again

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101–110 of 116 posts

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China, behind the surface, is very anarchic, bejing can make rules all it wants but the local government beyond surface placation won't honor the spirit and restart production of all kind of stuff. Which is fascinating, cause as soon as party rule is threatened, that very same principle ceases to apply.

Any sufficiently big country is very anarchic in that sense. US and India are made of literal states. Russia resembles a medieval feudal structure. UK is England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and it all would be about 5% population of China. An idea that someone or something could govern such a huge amount of people directly and controlling all aspects of life and economy looks absurd to me.

> Any sufficiently big country is very anarchic in that sense.

The reason most large countries have standardized on democracy + separation of powers + rule of law (in various flavors) is precisely because it's a decent solution to this.

China's governance struggles are because it wants two contradictory things (a) absolute authority of the CCP + (b) absolute adherence to the rule of law.

Unfortunately, explicitly placing a political party made of humans above the rule of law is a recipe for ignoring the latter. First when it's politically inconvenient. Then, once it's become culturally acceptable, whenever anyone thinks they can get away with it.

Xi smartly pushed this back a few decades, to the extent possible, by identifying and pursuing corruption vigorously (from the top) as an existential threat to the CCP. Unfortunately, absolute power... etc. ... and inevitably aspects of those corruption crusades turned into removing political enemies from power.

Authoritarian regimes' greatest weaknesses are corruption and blindness to inconvenient truths.

Democracies' are lack of unity and long term planning.

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#102
post #100

Wasn't there a story about satellite imagery detecting massive CFC releases in China from expandable foam? Edit: found one... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/23/china-factorie...

4 years ago. The article of this post point to another reason: some volcano activity last year.

4 years ago makes sense though. It takes a while for the effects to become noticeable.

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#103
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again I disagree. The worst predictions for climate change are not based on very solid models. There are lots of clever people who are skeptical of the doomerism. As an example, the claim that more people will die from heat waves is correct, but when you compare it to the people who won’t die from cold weather then climate change is a net benefit! And in terms of environmental collapses, things like the health of oce…

What about ocean acidification? That is connected to CO2 in the atmosphere and had a good chance of leading to collapse of marine ecosystems, no?

That is definitely my biggest worry ocean-wise. I haven’t read many acidification papers but the impression I get is that ocean absorption of CO2 is relatively slow so we will only start to see noticeable changes on the order of centuries. If these problems occur faster than we can decarbonise then we will need to geoengineer ocean chemistry. Although this is a plan B, we will be able to implement it before there are significant enough changes to cause a collapse.

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#104
post #69
post #68

[flagged]

I agree with you, but this is the European Space Agency which makes it more or less impossible that the syntax is mm/dd/yyyy since that is (as far as I know) essentially exclusively used by Americans.

Yes, but the regular date notation in Europe is dd-mm-yyyy (with dashes, not slashes). My default heuristic is to interpret dashes as dd-mm-yyyy, but slashes as mm/yy/dddd instead.

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#105
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans are not tenants they are part of the planet.

The Earth will be just fine without humans.

The point is no one is hurting Earth, it is hurting itself because humans are part of Earth. Unless you believe humans are aliens, you have to make peace with that fact

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#107
post #104
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, but this is the European Space Agency which makes it more or less impossible that the syntax is mm/dd/yyyy since that is (as far as I know) essentially exclusively used by Americans.

Yes, but the regular date notation in Europe is dd-mm-yyyy (with dashes, not slashes). My default heuristic is to interpret dashes as dd-mm-yyyy, but slashes as mm/yy/dddd instead.

that’s simply not true unfortunately, slashes are the norm in France for example, and Germany even uses dots quite often.

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#108
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Earth will be just fine without humans.

But humans can still do a lot of damage on our way out. For example, the coral reefs won't be fine after humans go extinct - because there won't be any coral reefs left.

I am quite dubious of this claim. Our current coral reefs didn't exist during the Younger-Dryas. They were dry land. Bleached coral isn't dead. It has just expelled it's algae due to stress. Coral are also broadcast spawners. Polyps ride ocean currents until they find a place to build their home, the actual reef structure. Coral reefs may move around but they aren't going to just go extinct.

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this kind of sentiment a little vacuous. Charitably, we might say "Much of the non-human life on Earth will be just fine without humans" but the kinds of ecological disaster that would wipe us would would take a significant chunk of other life along with it. Beyond that, what value is a floating chunk of rock except for the very fact it sustains conscious life, the only thing capable of valuing it? Humans, and…

Value is a human concept.

"Earth", "human" and "value" are human concepts. Don't even get me started on "concept"

Re: Ozone hole goes large again

#110
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4 years ago. The article of this post point to another reason: some volcano activity last year.

4 years ago makes sense though. It takes a while for the effects to become noticeable.

It might make sense, but is it scientifically valid?
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