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Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

newsroom.toyota.eu

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Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#101

Post by acdha »

bestham wrote: post #95
jbm wrote: post #2

1000 km battery, 10 minute charge? I'm suspicious for many reasons. If they can't build their prime hybrids — or even supply gas Siennas in Canada — I'm not very confident about their manufacturing in the mid-term. I hope I'm wrong.

Toyota is one of the top innovators in the world when it comes to manufacturing. The reason Tesla is able to produce millions of Model 3 is partly because they are applying the lessons learned from the Toyota production system (TPS). Toyota have a lot of experience of electrification, they just have not produced a lot of vehicles with a charging plug. Toyota will deliver EVs that good enough to compete with all other…

Nobody is saying they don’t have a good history or tons of resources but company leadership is not a constant. They blew a multi-decade lead and do not appear to be reacting well enough to catch up – likely because their senior people need to admit that their hydrogen gamble failed, which is hard enough even when it doesn’t involve multi-billion dollar write-offs. This is especially so because hydrogen worked out exactly how basically everyone else predicted it would when they made that bet, so they can’t claim nobody could have foreseen this outcome.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#102

Post by _hypx »

acdha wrote: post #99
_hypx wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas is usually heavily taxed. Maintenance costs are absurdly exaggerated (especially when compared to the long-term cost of battery replacement) and catalytic convertor theft is covered by insurance.

Gas taxes are about half of what they’re supposed to be to find road maintenance. The rest is subsidized out of general fund revenues. Re: maintenance costs every reputable analyst says that EVs are significantly cheaper throughout the entire lifetime of the vehicle, even when you factor in the higher tire wear and tear. That doesn’t factor in the disruption cost of having to get service, either, which adds up with e…

That's a lot of wishful thinking. Certainly, in places like California and Europe, they're much higher than they can be justified. Gas taxes feed into the general fund instead.

Maintenance costs are just marketing. The moment you factor in battery replacement costs, the advantage collapses. BEV companies just pretend this never happens.

Catalytic convertor theft is not that common. This is more wishful thinking.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#103

Post by _hypx »

acdha wrote: post #101
bestham wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota is one of the top innovators in the world when it comes to manufacturing. The reason Tesla is able to produce millions of Model 3 is partly because they are applying the lessons learned from the Toyota production system (TPS). Toyota have a lot of experience of electrification, they just have not produced a lot of vehicles with a charging plug. Toyota will deliver EVs that good enough to compete with all other…

Nobody is saying they don’t have a good history or tons of resources but company leadership is not a constant. They blew a multi-decade lead and do not appear to be reacting well enough to catch up – likely because their senior people need to admit that their hydrogen gamble failed, which is hard enough even when it doesn’t involve multi-billion dollar write-offs. This is especially so because hydrogen worked out exa…

This is BEV propaganda. Toyota's hydrogen bet has yet to be even tested. There is a very good chance that batteries get disrupted by hydrogen. In that scenario, almost everyone is decades behind Toyota.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#104

Post by _hypx »

surfaceofthesun wrote: post #65
Alupis wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume, but perhaps be wrong, that it would be liquid Hydrogen pumped into a vehicle's tank, and much like a tank of propane, the liquid expands back into a gas as pressure decreases (due to consumption). Hydrogen vehicles have the advantage of being refillable in minutes, much like petrol based vehicles - yet the only byproduct is water vapor, making them completely environmentally friendly. Hydrogen is also…

For a direct answer, this[1] is a good starting point discussing the difficulties with hydrogen (as a medium generally). Hydrogen fuel cell vs combustion isn’t a settled issue. Combustion is more familiar but Carnot Efficiency is going to reduce range (even further). Fuel cells are more efficient but more expensive. Anything with hydrogen needs to worry about embrittlement. It’s also very difficult to contain so the…

This is outdated crap from 20 years ago. Virtually all of the problems of dealing with hydrogen have been solved. Even GWP has been known for decades (note: It is all about indirect methane emissions, so it is not particularly real).

The main point is that hydrogen is vastly cheaper and less resource demanding than batteries. You can expect hydrogen cars to be as cheap as ICE cars. Something BEVs can never hope to achieve outside of short-ranged vehicles.

A very plausible scenario is that efficiency of fuel cells and electrolyzers improve to the point where BEVs become obsolete. It's arguable we've already reached that point, and this conversation is just the "solar/wind power is impossible" phase of the conversation.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#105

Post by wlesieutre »

_hypx wrote: post #103
acdha wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is saying they don’t have a good history or tons of resources but company leadership is not a constant. They blew a multi-decade lead and do not appear to be reacting well enough to catch up – likely because their senior people need to admit that their hydrogen gamble failed, which is hard enough even when it doesn’t involve multi-billion dollar write-offs. This is especially so because hydrogen worked out exa…

This is BEV propaganda. Toyota's hydrogen bet has yet to be even tested. There is a very good chance that batteries get disrupted by hydrogen. In that scenario, almost everyone is decades behind Toyota.

Tesla wanted BEVs to happen, so they built their own nationwide charging network.

Toyota wants hydrogen vehicles to happen, so they've sat around hoping someone else solves the refueling network problem for them.

So far this strategy hasn't worked out. Are there any signs of that changing?

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#106

Post by _hypx »

wlesieutre wrote: post #105
_hypx wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is BEV propaganda. Toyota's hydrogen bet has yet to be even tested. There is a very good chance that batteries get disrupted by hydrogen. In that scenario, almost everyone is decades behind Toyota.

Tesla wanted BEVs to happen, so they built their own nationwide charging network. Toyota wants hydrogen vehicles to happen, so they've sat around hoping someone else solves the refueling network problem for them. So far this strategy hasn't worked out. Are there any signs of that changing?

Toyota does not live by the timeline of Tesla. It reminds me of the time the Germans became obsessed with diesel whereas Toyota focused on longer term projects. It did not end well for the German car companies. There's a good chance that Tesla's short-term strategy ends up not mattering.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#107

Post by wlesieutre »

_hypx wrote: post #106
wlesieutre wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla wanted BEVs to happen, so they built their own nationwide charging network. Toyota wants hydrogen vehicles to happen, so they've sat around hoping someone else solves the refueling network problem for them. So far this strategy hasn't worked out. Are there any signs of that changing?

Toyota does not live by the timeline of Tesla. It reminds me of the time the Germans became obsessed with diesel whereas Toyota focused on longer term projects. It did not end well for the German car companies. There's a good chance that Tesla's short-term strategy ends up not mattering.

If the mass adoption of BEV passenger vehicles makes hydrogen fueling stations economically infeasible, then Toyota does live by the timeline of Tesla.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-thr...

Hydrogen in the US feels destined for trucking and heavy industry if it sees success anywhere, but hydrogen filling stations at truck stops aren't going to sell a lot of Mirais.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#108

Post by _hypx »

wlesieutre wrote: post #107
_hypx wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota does not live by the timeline of Tesla. It reminds me of the time the Germans became obsessed with diesel whereas Toyota focused on longer term projects. It did not end well for the German car companies. There's a good chance that Tesla's short-term strategy ends up not mattering.

If the mass adoption of BEV passenger vehicles makes hydrogen fueling stations economically infeasible, then Toyota does live by the timeline of Tesla. https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-thr... Hydrogen in the US feels destined for trucking and heavy industry if it sees success anywhere, but hydrogen filling stations at truck stops aren't going to sell a lot of Mirais.

Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking.

People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. What is the solution to that last problem? It has to be a vehicle that is both zero emissions and doesn’t have weight and resource dependency problems. If you think in that way, you pretty much always end up with a hydrogen powered car of some sort.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#109

Post by acdha »

_hypx wrote: post #103
acdha wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is saying they don’t have a good history or tons of resources but company leadership is not a constant. They blew a multi-decade lead and do not appear to be reacting well enough to catch up – likely because their senior people need to admit that their hydrogen gamble failed, which is hard enough even when it doesn’t involve multi-billion dollar write-offs. This is especially so because hydrogen worked out exa…

This is BEV propaganda. Toyota's hydrogen bet has yet to be even tested. There is a very good chance that batteries get disrupted by hydrogen. In that scenario, almost everyone is decades behind Toyota.

Something you can just look at being used in the real world can’t be propaganda. I know people who have been driving BEVs for over a decade and while they’d be the first to tell you there are real problems (e.g. long road trips) but it’s a commodity technology they’ve been using, so clearly it works for many people. Since people have been using them all over the world at scale, you can get reliable data on how it’s working for any particular question.

Contrast that with hydrogen, which is only barely out of prototype stage with extremely limited availability. The Toyota Mirai is the most successful with around 21k units sold total since 2014 - 3 full orders of magnitude lower than Toyota’s annual sales count, or the total BEV sales.

Now, it’s possible that things will pick up if there are some big improvements in cost and availability but that’s a huge if since it requires major advances in multiple areas just to become competitive with BEVs: it’s not just price but especially fueling - batteries are slower to charge but electricity is available almost everywhere so your plan B is a lot better than needing a tow if anything goes wrong with the one station you were planning to refuel at in the few regions which have any stations at all. Again, that’s not intractable but it’s a much harder chicken-and-egg problem, especially as long as it relies on customers choosing to lock in higher costs and significant restrictions. Environmentalists care about the result, not the technology, so they’re just going to buy an BEV if they aren’t riding an e-bike.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#110

Post by acdha »

_hypx wrote: post #108
wlesieutre wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the mass adoption of BEV passenger vehicles makes hydrogen fueling stations economically infeasible, then Toyota does live by the timeline of Tesla. https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/two-of-londons-thr... Hydrogen in the US feels destined for trucking and heavy industry if it sees success anywhere, but hydrogen filling stations at truck stops aren't going to sell a lot of Mirais.

Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking. People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. Wh…

In the interest of disclosure, do you have some kind of connection to Toyota or the hydrogen industry? You keep saying things about BEVs which aren’t true and downplaying legitimate problems even the people trying to make hydrogen work acknowledge, which is disappointing to see because you’re not only failing to persuade anyone but also not helping the thing you love. Nobody is going to buy a FCEV because some internet stranger trash-talked the alternatives but because it’s better in some way. If you really want hydrogen to succeed, acknowledge real problems and spend your effort fixing them.
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