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Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

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Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#101

Post by scott_w »

mrcartmeneses wrote: post #91
scott_w wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except in the referendum, many of those “Don’t knows” turned into “Leave.” My point is that you can’t just read a poll and confidently declare there’s popular support for rejoining the EU.

I see the EU referendum as being like the question: do you want to cheat on your wife? And any future referendum as being: do you wish you hadn’t cheated on your wife? So basically it was 51% leave and it will be 55% regret. The proverbial has hit the fan in the UK since Brexit. It is all very real now for people and not just some silly wet dream

That doesn’t answer any of my points and doesn’t answer the core reason Brexit won’t be reversed any time soon: rejoining is not politically settled.

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#102

Post by scott_w »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #97
blibble wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, I successfully predicted all of the above from June 24th 2016: a hard exit with a fudge on the NI border was the only path that kept the tory party in one piece and the tory party has always prioritised that over everything else remember: it's the only reason they called a referendum in the first place the only way it would have gone differently would have been if Labour had a leader other than Corbyn having him…

I mean no disrespect, but that seems very unlikely. Like, the Tory party didn't remain in one piece, they expelled a bunch of people and are almost unrecognisable from the people in power in 2016. Any chance you have comments here or elsewhere supporting your predictions?

They didn’t split. By that metric, they’re still in one piece and that’s the only metric those in the party care about right now.

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#103

Post by oliwarner »

Retaining Brexit diehards is absolutely essential for Tories to avoid a complete battering at the next general election. This is just the sort of tosh that will scare any centre-left-leaning Europhobes back on side.

Stories like this and —more recently— anti-green policies will run thick throughout the coming campaign.

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#104

Post by usrusr »

gettodachoppa wrote: post #85
usrusr wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first time I went to Tenerife I was deeply puzzled by seeing long immigration queues on TFS. It took me weeks of wondering who those people were, before I realized that they were UK vacationers who didn't enjoy any of the convenience of Schengen. Even Swiss and Norwegians would just walk through like on a domestic flight, UK visitors got special attention. That day I understood a lot more about brexit (that was s…

The benefits you describe are really unimportant in the grand scheme of things. Would you also be a fan of a global union with a single currency?

Would Californians prefer to have a separate Cal$?

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#105

Post by nvm0n1 »

purple_elephant wrote: post #42

There are many uninformed comments in this thread saying that the UK would have to join the Eurozone if it returned to the EU. No. You only have to adopt the euro if you meet the convergence criteria. One of the criteria is joining ERM II. There's no mechanism that can force a country to join ERM II. This is why Sweden, although theoretically obliged to join the eurozone, still has its own currency.

No, why do pro-EU people lie about this so frequently?

The rules say that to join you must adopt the euro. The EU has chosen not to enforce this rule on legacy members for now, but certainly would enforce it on Britain and anyway good luck selling "we want to join but we plan to illegally ignore the rules" to either the EU or the British electorate.

Reality is the EU wasn't every opportunity in the UK and it's blue going to rejoin unless there's essentially some undemocratic coup. The moment is explained what thinking would entail the proposal is dead.

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#106

Post by mschuster91 »

mutatio wrote: post #31
mschuster91 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Euro and the ECB haven't even been a success for the EU as-is, a single fiscal policy cannot reconcile the economies of Germany and Greece. Of course it has been a success. I (half-German, half-Croatian) grew up in times where each of the borders from Germany to Croatia had anything from 1-4 hours of waiting time, you'd need to exchange currency at each border (at outrageous rates) as well simply to be able to…

What year was this? The removal of a lot of this financial friction was coming to and end regardless of the Euro or ECB. Didn't Croatia only join the Euro this year? I'm finding it hard to believe this archaic mechanism existed up until Jan 2023, that is to say I find the example slightly disingenuous. The friction between Ireland and the UK is near zero, both have different currencies. This isn't to say there aren't…

> What year was this? The removal of a lot of this financial friction was coming to and end regardless of the Euro or ECB. Didn't Croatia only join the Euro this year? I'm finding it hard to believe this archaic mechanism existed up until Jan 2023, that is to say I find the example slightly disingenuous.

Indeed, Schengen and Euro were only introduced this year - but I lived through how all of the old crap slowly got dismantled, each year it was one annoyance less.

The most painful thing is to see how many people want to dismantle all of that progress.

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#107

Post by mpweiher »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #75
mpweiher wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"60 per cent of Britons now think Brexit was the wrong decision and would vote to rejoin the EU at a second referendum" Do you think these 60% are unaware that there would be no special deals? And it's 79% of young voters, so even just the demographics will only shift this further, in addition to the ever more obvious data showing just how disastrous Brexit has been, that all the claims were lies. And what special tr…

It's called the Euro ;) I'm sortof not really joking but the German export driven economy would have been much harder to maintain with the DM.

LOL.

The Euro was a concession by Germany in order to get France to agree to unification.

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#108

Post by mpweiher »

scott_w wrote: post #62
nprateem wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sources for the last 2 claims? Labour are doing what any good politicians do and are avoiding a divisive issue to try to appeal to both sides.

The “source” is the fact Labour are not talking about rejoining. We don’t have access to their internal polling, for obvious reasons, but they clearly believe in this strategy and the 20pt lead in the polls suggests they’re right to. EDIT: I missed the source for the polls. This YouGov poll shows a big “Don’t know” block which is completely missing from the news reports. Poll: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/art…

According to those numbers, rejoin is 55% and Leave + Don't Know is 44%.

It always helps to read the sources you cite...

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#109

Post by gumballindie »

x86x87 wrote: post #25

Coulda woulda shoulda They fucked around and now they are in the finding out phase. There is no way the EU will allow them to continue with their jackasseries. If you want back in apply like a new state and accept the shit conditions new members have to accept. You're not special. You're a shadow of a former great empire and your economy is collapsing. Immigrants? Those fools are actually keeping you afloat while you…

Interesting. Why are the conditions to join the eu shit? What’s the purpose? And how does it correlate to a steady stream of convenient immigrants from within the eu towards other states within the union? And why is it always the same states that attract? During the brexit campaign no one asked why people are leaving. What causes such massive displacement of people within the eu?

Re: Brexit Could Be Reversed - Here's How

#110

Post by Mlller »

gumballindie wrote: post #24
kramerger wrote: post #9

Please don't. Things have been so much smoother in the EU since UK left. Their politicians had this idea that Europe was out to screw them in every deal and that made it a very annoying 30 years of "collaboration".

Things are smooth indeed. Without real opposition, Germany can further drag the continent down the stagnation and economic strangulation through austerity only it benefits from paths as it pleases.

I have heard the opposite: that the United Kingdom was, as a rule, an important ally for the economic policies favoured by Germany and others. E.g., “So far the following EU countries have announced that they oppose Eurobonds: Germany, United Kingdom, Finland and the Netherlands.” on p. 186 in Schäfer 2012 = vol. 9.2 in EJCE = https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255726169_The_Sover...

Further more, the UK was an important net contributor.

So I think, on the whole, Brexit was bad for Germany.

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