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TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

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Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#101

Post by mschuster91 »

landemva wrote: post #98
mschuster91 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What's with all the doomslinging in modern discourse? Because public trust in the ability of governments to manage a crisis has gone completely fucking downhill, worldwide: - the US couldn't even manage to beat a gang of cave-living Islamist terrorists using kalashnikovs in 20 years, and had to flee the country in shame - we went through three years of a worldwide pandemic, then panicked governments acted like it w…

> NATO could do way way WAY more Where in NATO charter are they to interfere for a non-NATO country?

We could have delivered tanks from our storages the very second the first Russian crossed the border, we could have delivered fighter jets, we could have done a lot without directly involving us into the war.

Instead we got Biden being afraid of Republicans (most importantly the Russian asset that was the 45th President), our German Olaf Scholz being afraid of his own party and its close ties to Russia and the far-right and far-left and their even closer ties, and French Macron and Turkey's Erdogan both trying to act like they're kingmakers. Oh and we got Ukraine to agree not to use the pittances we send to hurt the Russians on their own soil.

All while hundreds of thousands of civilians and troops died in Ukraine. What a disgrace - our hesitation cost real human lives for nothing.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#102

Post by landemva »

sanxiyn wrote: post #99
landemva wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Federal Reserve deserves credit for handling inflation well. That is a stretch. They jacked rates on Trump, lowered rates for Biden, and in my opinion were forced to raise rates when the Ukraine money/power grab ramped up.

"Forced" or not, they still raised rates. They could have done otherwise, which would have been disastrous.

They followed war events in a reactionary manner. It would be cheaper and transparent to set rates algorithmically. The Fed can stay in business by continuing to inadequately regulate banks like SVB.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#103

Post by guestbest »

willis936 wrote: post #49
ajb wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't necessarily representative of the economics of downstream sectors, because it's probably caused by the Bullwhip Effect[1] like the recent semiconductor shortage. "The bullwhip effect refers to a scenario in which small changes in demand at the retail end of the supply chain become amplified when moving up the supply chain from the retail end to the manufacturing end." [1] https://www.investopedia.com/bullw…

That would imply there is a surplus somewhere, which there's not. There's a reduction in orders from a reduction in demand regardless of the state of the buffer.

Their is a surplus of labor.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#104

Post by jrockway »

pdonis wrote: post #97
jrockway wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? How does the cost of microprocessors and metals decreasing make programming easier?

The cost of iPhones includes the cost of programming them.

But you're saying that moats wouldn't exist if the phones cost 1 cent? Why? I'm claiming that the cost of the iPhone in that world is from the included software, and the included software is their "moat". Cheap parts doesn't give you a "blue bubble" on iMessage. That's what the end user is paying for.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#105

Post by gorkish »

willis936 wrote: post #49
ajb wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't necessarily representative of the economics of downstream sectors, because it's probably caused by the Bullwhip Effect[1] like the recent semiconductor shortage. "The bullwhip effect refers to a scenario in which small changes in demand at the retail end of the supply chain become amplified when moving up the supply chain from the retail end to the manufacturing end." [1] https://www.investopedia.com/bullw…

That would imply there is a surplus somewhere, which there's not. There's a reduction in orders from a reduction in demand regardless of the state of the buffer.

It's still the same effect. Supply doesn't have to overshoot. Computer chips aren't just stamped out instantly; a complex chip with many hundreds of process steps can take months to manufacture. The latency of design/revision cycle means manufacturers are always doing everything they can not to overproduce.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#106

Post by cs702 »

bbatsell wrote: post #76
cs702 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I certainly hope you're right. Keep in mind: TSMC is entrenched in a lot of markets characterized by short lead times (say, < 1 month), and a 10% drop is a lot more than anyone -- including the company -- was expecting. Sometime ago I recall seeing charts showing that changes in TSMC's annual revenues are highly correlated with measures of global economic activity such as changes in Apple's global revenues and change…

Could you elaborate on what you’re referring to? I’m certainly not an expert, but my understanding was that the vast, vast majority of TSMC’s revenue comes from production of completely custom wafers on newer nodes, and I’m hard pressed to think of something in the industry with _longer_ lead times.

I was referring to lead time on orders for existing products, i.e., those for which TSMC already has manufacturing capacity online, like current iPhone chips. I wasn't referring to the time it takes to go from design to manufacturing!

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#107

Post by panarky »

gorkish wrote: post #105
willis936 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would imply there is a surplus somewhere, which there's not. There's a reduction in orders from a reduction in demand regardless of the state of the buffer.

It's still the same effect. Supply doesn't have to overshoot. Computer chips aren't just stamped out instantly; a complex chip with many hundreds of process steps can take months to manufacture. The latency of design/revision cycle means manufacturers are always doing everything they can not to overproduce.

The chip shortage lasted longer than you'd expect because everyone from end users to intermediaries has been hoarding them.

It's like the covid toilet paper shortage, even if you keep producing a thing at the same rate, stockpiling creates shortages which stimulate even more stockpiling.

When that eventually reverses, expect a temporary glut.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#108

Post by panarky »

esdott wrote: post #42
jrockway wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's true. If my BOM costs go down by 10%, I don't need to charge any less money for my product. If Apple could build an iPhone for 1 cent, why wouldn't they still charge $1000 for it? They can say it's how much iOS costs or whatever. (And hey, use the extra profit to hire more tax-paying iOS developers, making iOS even more valuable.)

Typically, lower demand means lower prices - at least in the short term. I believe that TSMC is saying that demand is decreasing quickly and a supply glut will need to clear until it gets better. Just my two cents.

>> If Apple could build an iPhone for 1 cent ...

... then Samsung can also make a phone for 1 cent, and they might try to steal share by selling for $400, and some consumers would switch, etc.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#109

Post by panarky »

cs702 wrote: post #106
bbatsell wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you elaborate on what you’re referring to? I’m certainly not an expert, but my understanding was that the vast, vast majority of TSMC’s revenue comes from production of completely custom wafers on newer nodes, and I’m hard pressed to think of something in the industry with _longer_ lead times.

I was referring to lead time on orders for existing products, i.e., those for which TSMC already has manufacturing capacity online, like current iPhone chips. I wasn't referring to the time it takes to go from design to manufacturing!

In addition to the bullwhip effect, and the unwinding of stockpiling, there's probably some real reduction of demand, and that's probably mostly from China's failure to bounce back to pre-covid GDP.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#110

Post by sgtnoodle »

jjoonathan wrote: post #50
sgtnoodle wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have windows on a separate SSD, and grub still stops working whenever I update my motherboard firmware...

Condolences. I wish I had a second trick for you but I don't.

At least I can fix it from Windows, because it's just some uefi parameter that gets borked. I have the command in a text file on my desktop.
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