I think this is funny, since esm being "native" on browsers doesn't really matter until you can convince devs they don't actually need to use a bundler. So long as you're using a bundler, the browser's runtime doesn't really matter - you're using the runtime the bundler presents and emulates on the browser. Native ESM has proven to be quite painful in ecosystems that _don't_ rely on the presence of a bundler to patch…
I've seen some great development environments where all of development/debugging is unbundled ESM directly in the browser. It's going to take a lot of momentum shift to swing the "bundler pendulum" back away from "always" to "as needed" (or even, shockingly, "never"), but I think it is going to happen. HTTP/2+ really does make "never" a bigger possibility than ever before, especially in cases like MPAs (and SSR SPAs…
ESM may very well be the module system designed for a world that'll actually never exist, and will mostly just be an ill defined compilation target. But hey, maybe the next web module system will do better - those wasm working group people are working hard on their module system - and it's intended as a compilation target from the start, so shortcomings in it can be patched over by tools from the start :)