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Nvidia is now a $1T company

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Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company

#101

Post by theironhammer »

jcranmer wrote: post #68
pc86 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what? This sounds like you just pulling numbers out of the air, in which case 1% vs. 6.5% means comparatively nothing. And what makes you so sure that if China invades Taiwan they would definitely do it by 2033, and there's a 0% chance it'd happen in 2034? I'm not trying to be [overly] pedantic but HN is littered with comments basically just making shit up in a language of confidence and precision.

I believe Xi Jinping has said something to the effect of "Taiwan should be a part of China by the end of this decade," although I'm having a hard time pinning down the exact quote. Although it should also be noted that Xi also tends to emphasize his desire to see Taiwan unified peacefully rather than force, so it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unificati…

"it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification."

Taiwan is 30+Million people. I should imagine that would require a massive military undertaking.

Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company

#102

Post by theironhammer »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #67
baq wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fabs get blown up in any Taiwan invasion by the losing side whoever it will be. The only way to win is not to play.

China is counting on the US and India, et al, pushing for fabs elsewhere. Once the fabs are out, there is less impetus for the US (plus Korea, Japan, etc.) to put a lot on the line to save Taiwan.

Bingo.

Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company

#104

Post by hankphot »

Ekaros wrote: post #83
hankphot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe that Taiwan has a 1% chance of being invaded per year and that this event would remove your ownership then the long term value of purchasing this stock is negative

Maybe further question is, would invasion of Taiwan change the ownership structure in total sense. Or just for example 51% moving to Chinese hands. Production capacity losses might be realistic scenario and sales to west going down.

The image of some western white guy complaining about unfair it is the China invalidates his ownership in the TSMC following a genocidal invasion of Taiwan is pretty good, I’ll give you that.

Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company

#106

Post by [deleted] »

theironhammer wrote: post #101
jcranmer wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe Xi Jinping has said something to the effect of "Taiwan should be a part of China by the end of this decade," although I'm having a hard time pinning down the exact quote. Although it should also be noted that Xi also tends to emphasize his desire to see Taiwan unified peacefully rather than force, so it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unificati…

"it's difficult to assess with accuracy how likely China is to invade Taiwan to compel an unwilling unification." Taiwan is 30+Million people. I should imagine that would require a massive military undertaking.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company

#107

Post by dirtyid »

londons_explore wrote: post #24
dvhedvsa wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but it’s in Taiwan. The Geo political situation as such that people discount it’s future prospects

Are there betting odds anywhere for regime change/invasion of Taiwan? I would put it as ~1% per year right now, but perhaps other investors see it differently.

Really what odds for TMSC disruption which is much different and permissible.

Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company

#108

Post by goosinmouse »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #97
mercurialsolo wrote: post #48

I would be that Nvidia is underpriced by the market. AI apps are still in the infancy and we are just gonna see more demand emerge.

Based on P/E, I don't think so. There's already has a LOT of expected growth priced in. We're in an AI bubble. AI has a lot of incredible uses, but eventually the bubble will burst and the market will recognize places where AI doesn't really belong.

Forward P/E is 51x, net income forecast CAGR (5y) 60.3%. Thats why its a trillion dollar company right now

Re: Nvidia is now a $1T company

#109

Post by q1w2 »

mattnewton wrote: post #88
q1w2 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Do they manufacture their GPUs?

No, they sell all the components and assembly around the gpu to turn it into a high performance server

I wish I had looked at them earlier. PE ratio is still low, but I'm not sure they'll capitalize on the AI trend... ...and it's so hard to buy shares that are up 10x! What do you think?
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