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Germany Falls into Recession

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Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#101

Post by helij »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #72
malka wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How the f can you have such a big mortgage, with a variable interest rate, and sleep at night ? I'm french, and everyone I know has a fixed interest rate. dont know if it is mandatory, but God, I am so glad that my interest rate will never spike.

In 5 years you should have large portion of principal paid off so this would not matter. Average 30 year mortgage is paid off in 11 years.

Really interesting. Is it because people sell the property and get a new mortgage for a new place or they outright pay it off after 11 years?

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#102

Post by nforgerit »

German speaking. My personal summary of Germany’s technical problems in all different areas boils down to “arrogance”.

- Whenever I had the chance to talk to „leadership“ people about the lack of progress in transforming energy production towards renewables they were essentially telling me “all is good, we have a great deal with Gasprom, they will always deliver because we’re too important for them”

- Whenever I asked about things digital and a lack of local Cloud providers and expertise in Software Engineering: “we have excellent education (we don’t) and look, when there’s the time we will be excellent in shipping great software with our products. The market just doesn’t require it yet (about 10y ago)”

- “China needs us as much as we need them. Look at the import/export fraction to China in recent years”

- “Look we are world class with out ICE tech. Why would we give that up for stupid electro?”

And so on.. German politicians were stupid enough to follow the lobbying and public opinions. Meanwhile even German conservatives that used to be halfway reliable start campaigning using fake news and drive cultural wars. Chancellor Scholz publicly stated that Germany has a new Wirtschaftswunder in nearsight “because of all the work that needs to be done” (lol)

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#103

Post by c00lio »

amadeuspagel wrote: post #93
pulse7 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...and all this happened because German car makes were willing to give COMPLETE KNOW-HOW (on how to make good cars) just to be able to sell in Chinese market... Now China has learned how to make good (enough) cars and - they will out-compete Germans with low prices... Who wants to pay 60.000€ for an electric car in you can get one for 30.000€ from China?

It happened because German car makers were not willing to commit to electric cars.

That too.

German car makers got lazy with research and development. In addition, they were hesitant to give up their investment in ICE production, risk staff reductions, and corresponding political and strike problems. This lead to most of the knowledge around EVs being developed and patented elsewhere, especially battery knowledge is firmly in Chinese hands.

At the same time the grandparent is also right, China wisely required knowledge transfers (in the form of forced joint ventures) in exchange for production and sales licenses. German car makers stupidly and greedily agreed, providing the Chinese with valuable knowledge about all the other parts of a car.

Both those mistakes now mean that Chinese companies have all the necessary patents and knowledge, as well as experience, for building EVs. Whereas German car makers will need to buy, license and beg for parts in China.

Not to mention that production in China will of course always be cheaper, and bureaucracy easier in the relevant circumstances.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#104

Post by touisteur »

malka wrote: post #53
Escapado wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

How the f can you have such a big mortgage, with a variable interest rate, and sleep at night ? I'm french, and everyone I know has a fixed interest rate. dont know if it is mandatory, but God, I am so glad that my interest rate will never spike.

A good number of French people somehow still remember (or talk with awe or anger about) the crazy early 80s, with the rampant inflation, the variable interest rates frenzy, combined with successive devaluations of the Franc Français and the moment the French government decided to follow the example of the Deutschmark and aim for what became the Euro...

Yeah when I asked (in France) about variable rates to a credit guy recently he looked at me like I was an alien. They probably still exist, but the loan-happy people won't even try to sell them, to me at least.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#105

Post by mywittyname »

yamtaddle wrote: post #60
baremetal wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Since covid, rents increases have far outpaced salary increases. And since 2022 so have bill, groceries, everything. Same story in the US.

Everyone I know who didn't go in to this with a lot of income above their spending level is struggling, mostly due to price increases in things they can't not spend money on. Housing's way up the list, and food, which, I dunno, maybe it's a local thing, but that's up a ton more than overall US inflation figures would lead one to guess. Utility prices are up, too. Basically the only things that are still cheap are opt…

> overall US inflation figures would lead one to guess.

I think part of the problem is that people see rates of inflation in the news, but their mind thinks in terms of cumulative inflation. They think, "housing has gone up 30% since before the pandemic but the government says inflation is only 9%." Even though, 9% inflation per year over 3 years is 30% total.

Then there's the fact that inflation stats are an average of a "basket of goods". So housing might go up 15%, but that's offset by other items going up 2%. Then there is regional factors, and how inflation is mentally sticky (i.e., people making jokes about the price of eggs, even though wholes prices are down 80% over the past 4 months).

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#106

Post by nforgerit »

ThorsBane wrote: post #96
jonp888 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is about HackerNews and the obesession with the decision to remove Nuclear Power, which was only a minority component at it's peak, from the German energy mix, as somehow being the dominant factor in the entire German society and economy? A while back someone unironically described Germany's nuclear power policy as "the single most catastrophic decision ever made by any government in peacetime".

The French regret their decisions on this front. It took a war for them to realize their huge mistake regarding energy independence. Germany is repeating the same mistake because of pride. If there are still talks about needing to use fossil fuels to bridge the gap introduced by eliminating nuclear, then eliminating nuclear was clearly the wrong move. The reactors should be maintained, upgraded, and worked on so that…

Afaik the main reason for the Western world to not sanction Rosatom, the russian nuclear supplier, is France because they frantically need their supplies..

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#107

Post by slightwinder »

jonp888 wrote: post #82
ThorsBane wrote: post #39

They shouldn't be shutting down nuclear. Build more nuclear reactors. That will provide more clean energy and a lot of jobs. Modernize the grid. Make it a smarter grid that is more resilient to harm. These projects pay for themselves quickly and are easy to finance with how much wealth Germany has.

What is about HackerNews and the obesession with the decision to remove Nuclear Power, which was only a minority component at it's peak, from the German energy mix, as somehow being the dominant factor in the entire German society and economy? A while back someone unironically described Germany's nuclear power policy as "the single most catastrophic decision ever made by any government in peacetime".

There is a good deal of misinformation, astro turfing, and I think also nerdy love for fancy toys. And there is also the problematic trend of the right wing to demonize environment- and green politics. It seems it has reached a level of conspiracy theories now.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#108

Post by lokar »

malka wrote: post #53
Escapado wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

How the f can you have such a big mortgage, with a variable interest rate, and sleep at night ? I'm french, and everyone I know has a fixed interest rate. dont know if it is mandatory, but God, I am so glad that my interest rate will never spike.

Cheap 30y fixed rate home loans are an American thing. The federal government subsidizes them.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#109

Post by nforgerit »

barbazoo wrote: post #98
mschild wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right and their ideology is to build more solar and wind. Which, even when factoring in the cost of batteries, is cheaper than nuclear or almost any other form of energy. https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth

All true. In hindsight though I wish the political debate had considered climate change more seriously in plans how to phase out coal and nuclear.

Well the plan was created >20 years ago but depended on the lifeline to actually develop enough renewables which got almost completely blocked by conservative governments in the last decade who still phased out nuclear. Don’t blame the Greens for that.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#110

Post by bryanlarsen »

c00lio wrote: post #103
amadeuspagel wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It happened because German car makers were not willing to commit to electric cars.

That too. German car makers got lazy with research and development. In addition, they were hesitant to give up their investment in ICE production, risk staff reductions, and corresponding political and strike problems. This lead to most of the knowledge around EVs being developed and patented elsewhere, especially battery knowledge is firmly in Chinese hands. At the same time the grandparent is also right, China wise…

Shipping and trade barriers are still significant for vehicles. The fact that BYD is looking to build a factory in Europe rather than importing from China shows that local manufacturing still has an advantage.
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