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SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

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Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#101

Post by JumpCrisscross »

AustinDev wrote: post #87
bumby wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consider this, the military is starting to explore the idea of moving heavy military equipment anywhere in the world within 90 minutes How reliable would this really be in practice? I'm thinking of all the times a projected launch has to get scrubbed and rescheduled days later. Not exactly the type of delivery uncertainty you'd want for critical equipment.

What if you have that equipment in a Starship already in orbit?

> What if you have that equipment in a Starship already in orbit?

Way cheaper to have redundant assets at multiple sites on the ground.

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#103

Post by JumpCrisscross »

detritus wrote: post #80
elif wrote: post #43

I saw on their YouTube channel that they are tentatively targeting 4/20 to light it up :)

ughft. I mean: I smoke hashish, but honestly, Musk's adolescent little references like these are really trite and demeaning to the magnitude of what his companies are hoping to achieve. S3XY, poop emoji and 'Titter'. ughft, just stop already.

I find it helpful to separate space Elon, car Elon and nut job Elon. (The man is one. But his shadows track three suns. His influence is indirect, and in that, varied myths cause varied outcomes.)

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#104

Post by kitsunesoba »

bane wrote: post #70

If they can pull this off I think we may enter an age with a clear "Before super heavy reusable launch" and "after". It's mind boggling how much stuff a Starship will be able to chuck into space and come down and then do it again and again. Consider this, the military is starting to explore the idea of moving heavy military equipment anywhere in the world within 90 minutes using this kind of capability. International…

> International Space Station sized habitats are a handful of launches over months, not dozens over decades. A single Starship launch could place multiple hubble-sized space observatories up in a single launch.

Even if they just stacked a modified Starship designed to stay in orbit (just enough fuel to get into orbit, ability to jettison engine section, some solar panels bolted on) and shot that up, that'd get you as much or more internal pressurized volume than the ISS in a single launch.

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#105

Post by s1artibartfast »

bumby wrote: post #85
Meegul wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX undoubtedly does have US government agencies as some of their biggest customers, but 98% must be a gross exaggeration. The Falcon 9/Heavy have made nearly all of their launch revenues, and from just perusing the lists [1][2] of all launches, the US government can't be more than some low double digit percentage. SpaceX does receive other funding as part of various NASA contracts, but that funding is also relate…

98% wasn't a number I pulled out of thin air. It's hard to know exact figures, but there are some people who publicly track what they can. [1] From that source, SpaceX has about ~$5.515B in contracts. Of that, about $5.411B is from government contracts (military, NASA). That's about 98.1%. There's probably a good chance it's higher, if they have govt contracts that aren't allowed to be public knowledge for security r…

The other respondent brought up a good point regarding selection bias. A different way to approach the problem would be to look at total SpaceX launches by customer. This has its own problems, but might paint a better picture.

When talking about funding in general, you also have to consider that SpaceX has significant non launch Equity funding to the tune of $10B, and that contracts can include potential future Revenue instead of funds received.

Edit: If you look at their launches for 2020 onwards[1], Their number 1 customer is SpaceX (themselves), followed by US and other governments, followed by private companies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_He...

While your borader conclusion is probably accurate regarding income, your spreadsheet only 71 of 216 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches, for ~$9B total. This is roughly on par with the VC funding they have recieved.

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#106

Post by bumby »

wolfram74 wrote: post #99
bumby wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consider this, the military is starting to explore the idea of moving heavy military equipment anywhere in the world within 90 minutes How reliable would this really be in practice? I'm thinking of all the times a projected launch has to get scrubbed and rescheduled days later. Not exactly the type of delivery uncertainty you'd want for critical equipment.

also: this model is 9 meters in diameter, and will already be more robust to weather effects than the f9, the 18 meter diameter model would be a beast if ever built.

Sorry, I didn't necessarily mean from a physical reliability perspective. I was speaking to launch/timetable reliability.

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#107

Post by ttobbaybbob »

if this works out does there become a bottleneck in the world's ability to produce space-ready, useful things (satelites, telescopes, etc).

Its incredibly costly and complex to build things like the james webb telescope and that would be a great problem to have, but are there any measures of the demand for rocket capacity at given price points?

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#108

Post by JumpCrisscross »

avmich wrote: post #94
rqtwteye wrote: post #78

I get pretty sad when I see this and then SLS. So much money and energy wasted on the SLS. I wonder how the NASA guys feel who are working on the SLS.

SLS gave tons of experience, of all kinds imaginable. Like, supercomputers used to calculate aerodynamics, heat-protecting tiles, landing and pacifying procedures, to name some less known. It was definitely not money wasted, even though more than 14 people gave their lives to the program.

> was definitely not money wasted

Sorry, it was absolutely wasted. We could have predictably achieved those benefits for less and quicker, with tens of billions to spare.

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#109

Post by detritus »

sgtnoodle wrote: post #97
detritus wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ughft. I mean: I smoke hashish, but honestly, Musk's adolescent little references like these are really trite and demeaning to the magnitude of what his companies are hoping to achieve. S3XY, poop emoji and 'Titter'. ughft, just stop already.

It's certainly dumb, but what's the harm with being a little irreverent and having fun while you're doing good, impactful work?

If you knew me irl, you'd know I'm very much in favour of humour and irreverency, especially where it might not be expected or even appropriate – but I'm not that much younger than Musk and honestly, I just find his particular flavour of humour childish and cringe-inducing.

13-year old me would've been gleefully receptive to it – the not-far off 50-year old me... somewhat less so.

The trouble for him here is – I'm not sure who amongst his consumer base would find it amusing.

- ed Also: I, like everyone else, saw that clip of him 'smoking' pot on Joe Rogan's thing. Unlike Clinton, he really didn't inhale... . NASA had nothing to worry about there.

Re: SpaceX closing in on first Starship Super Heavy launch

#110

Post by ta1243 »

moogly wrote: post #28
s1artibartfast wrote: post #9

Press releases from SpaceX have alluded to a possible launch date of 420, which I think would be hilariously on brand.

Can we please come up with some new "funny numbers" than 420, 69 and 42.

Well rather appropriately for today, April 7th, but 47 is a solid number stemming from Pomona College and made world famous due to Star Trek

https://www.pomona.edu/news/2000/10/01-mystery-47

https://magazine.pomona.edu/pomoniana/2015/02/13/the-mystery...

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