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SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

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Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#101
post #73
post #8

Play bank run games, win bank run prizes. Really, I don't love the regulatory arbitrage played by SVB and unhedged duration risk, nor the moral hazard created by the bailout, nor the somewhat bizarre attitude of companies holding huge $100Ms of uninsured deposits earning minimal interest (why have more than 1 months cash flow?), but really this was a bank run pure and simple. When you have to plan to lose >20% of you…

There is a hard line between insolvency and illiquidity. Illiquidity can be solved by borrowing at the federal funds rate.

I kinda agree here, it's a cash flow question. But that doesn't resolve what the haircut (if any) should be put on the securities in question nor what their future value will be.

The BTFP does it for one year without a haircut. Is it long enough? Depends on where long term rates go. If they fall a couple of points in the next year, it could, but if the Fed fails to beat inflation and they rise... then it wouldn't.

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The virus lockdowns ended and manufacturing supply chains have been clearing. Please tell us why price increases are continuing, instead of dramatically dropping.

Because we printed trillions of dollars and haven’t come close to removing all that excess stimulus yet - nor have any supply side constraints that existed prior to Covid been removed.

I thought the corona payments ended. Computer chips and PCs are largely back in stock.

Fertilizer and fuel prices went higher in past year. This drove up food production prices. Molecule flow in pipeline to Germany was sabotaged, preventing sale of molecules from east to west which drove up natural gas prices at export ports in USA. Not a virus issue but a war issue.

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#103
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moral hazard is that there isn’t a a limit to the $250k FDIC insurance so people that put money into the bank don’t have to care what the bank does. So there’s no incentive to work with a bank that took the time and money to pass a stress test — in fact the one that didn’t bother to do any testing can give better terms as they aren’t spending money to be safe.

I don't think it should ever be the depositors responsibility to figure out whether a bank is properly managing their risk backing your deposits. That's both intentionally meant to be opaque to depositors - you get dollars in an account, not share in an MMF for instance - and also, it is incredibly difficult for even professionals to evaluate. This is the responsibility of regulators plain and simple. And I'd argue b…

It is and it isn't the depositor's responsibility. It's totally expected for a large company to take a long, hard look at their bank. When I was an undergrad in Econ and in Accounting, the issue of insured account limits was literally in the text books. In the accounting/finance/economics area it's already well understood that a CFO (or their office) is responsible for vetting the bank. Moreover, it's the CFO's job to make sure the bank has adequate controls because (unlike consumers) commercial deposits are not indemnified when fraud occurs. If a company's payroll is stolen through fraud, for example, it's likely not recoverable. (Unless the bank failed to follow their procedures or the procedures set forth by the depositor, and you may still sit in court for years.) If your personal Visa debit card gets compromised, you aren't liable for the fraudulent purchases and the processor eats the cost. The health of the bank is less opaque to mid to large businesses, which have access to tools like Lexis/Nexis, Bloombergs, detailed ratings, and let's not forget personal networks. Most large companies also have to run big choices, like what banks to use, by their boards.

. Pending litigation . Counter party risks (e.g. do they have exposure to a problem bank) . Financial statements (usually the first stop and contains a lot of information) . Credit Default Swap rates (what does it cost to insure the debt issued by the bank) . What rules does the bank operate under (domestic, foreign, state, federal, etc.) . General reputation in the industry (e.g. go to $CS to launder your cocaine money)

That being said, it's probably beyond a small business to really evaluate their bank risk. And while 250k may have been adequate for the 2010's, it may no longer be sufficient to cover many small businesses (and by small I mean the back office is a handful of people). Should it be 500k? 1 million? I don't know. What I suspect is that making it unlimited, it means that a bank that's hemorrhaging depositors could offer unsustainably higher rates. Less risk-sensitive CFOs might decide that parking 10 million in reserves might be a good deal since it's as safe as an officially insured deposit. It's much more liquid than holding a 90-day CD or 3 month T-bill to maturity. Suddenly, the bank is flush with deposits, but is still going under. This would be kind of like the 1980's S&L crisis. That's why I'm all for raising the cap, but with clear limits and adjustments to the fees charged to member banks for insurance. If we need to expand the FDIC insurance fund by 3x to raise the cap, that's fine. But raising the cap, for an extended period, without adjusting the rules or the price for the insurance could lead to unintended consequences.

Should a VC funded company of 10 people do what GM does when evaluating a supplier or customer? Probably not. What about when it gets to 100 people? At that point I would expect there to be a competent CFO. What about the VC? (I'm just going to ignore all the tweets from the All-In community that showed a profound lack of understanding of banking, confusing a modern bank Gringot's.) Should the VC, as part of their advisory role, maybe recommend a good part time CFO or cash manager? Did regulators screw up SVB? Possibly, there were a lot of issues found when they transitioned to a new regulatory team year or two ago (or so I read). But regulators are not bank managers. And if a bank can show their risk controls are adequate, and those risk controls are being followed, it does not mean they're making good investments. (It's arguable that both lack of controls and following controls were an issue for SVB - as far as I've read).

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unhedged duration risk, nor the moral hazard created by the bailout Just making sure I understand your point here, are you just against "banking"? Unhedged duration risk w/ LOLR backup is essentially "the banking business". What's the moral hazard? The equity is wiped out, most of the debtors are wiped out. The only moral hazard I see is we've disincentivized individual depositors from assessing the financial stren…

Other banks had less duration risk and some used hedges. No bank is going to profit from this particular environment but it's possible to manage assets such that the entire business doesn't implode.

While it is possible to manage for safety, regulators did not enforce that.

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it should ever be the depositors responsibility to figure out whether a bank is properly managing their risk backing your deposits. That's both intentionally meant to be opaque to depositors - you get dollars in an account, not share in an MMF for instance - and also, it is incredibly difficult for even professionals to evaluate. This is the responsibility of regulators plain and simple. And I'd argue b…

I'd tend to agree that expecting depositors to police their banks is bad policy. It would be better to make that policy change explicitly though, by insuring all deposits, rather than by slouching into it with ad hoc rescues like here. I agree there's no moral hazard as to the SVB shareholders, since they got zeroed. There is a moral hazard as to the shareholders of other banks, who will benefit from the new lending…

That’s the point IMHO. We want depositors to keep money in the banking system. The inverse of it where depositors don’t trust the system would result in even more bank runs. However well run a bank is, there’ll always be a certain amount of assets in long term that lose value in the short term. We’ll be seeing perpetual bank runs and a new shadow banking system will emerge if this continues unchecked.

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#106
post #8

Play bank run games, win bank run prizes. Really, I don't love the regulatory arbitrage played by SVB and unhedged duration risk, nor the moral hazard created by the bailout, nor the somewhat bizarre attitude of companies holding huge $100Ms of uninsured deposits earning minimal interest (why have more than 1 months cash flow?), but really this was a bank run pure and simple. When you have to plan to lose >20% of you…

> not raising short rates would increase inflation Proxy war in eastern Europe, with USA dumping big $ there, is causing price rises.

"Proxy war" ? Asserting that Russia only invaded Ukraine at the behest of another country (China?) is a pretty strong claim.

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#107
post #43
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sound like you have a good grasp of this! What’s your take on the observation that historically after the yield curve inversion ends, it’s 3-6 months until a recession?

It's a correlation. Also a big part of the inversion is the fact the market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in 3-6 months. Of course historically this tends to happen at the beginning of recessions...

I agree. I'm an amateur, but I'll give my personal answer:

There will be a recession.. but when? I think sooner than later, but next year NBER could declare it to have started today or maybe it starts in another 12 months. There are "large and variable lags to monetary policy", which usually means >12mo. Almost a bigger issue than the actual risk free treasury yields is the rate volatility that's forcing lending rates up, because bankers don't know what's going to happen, and that makes loans and hedging expensive. The speed of the rate rise, along with the size and duration of inversion is very large and relative to previous rates it's a huge move (doubling from the 1-2% previously). That's going to break something some time. It could be when the debt ceiling fight gets real or earlier, if the economy actually turns over. You'll know when the Fed starts cutting rates.

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#108
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moral hazard is that there isn’t a a limit to the $250k FDIC insurance so people that put money into the bank don’t have to care what the bank does. So there’s no incentive to work with a bank that took the time and money to pass a stress test — in fact the one that didn’t bother to do any testing can give better terms as they aren’t spending money to be safe.

Right lets all just play silly accounting games breaking up your 100M into 400 individual bank accounts instead of doing something productive and just raising fdic limit to something sensible for a small-medium business

That's why managing those insured deposits is automated.

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#109
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Domestic dumping may be prohibited as predatory pricing under anti-trust, depending on the circumstances, including the pricer needing to have market power.

Right, but there is zero differentiation there between physical and virtual products. GP implied that there is some sort of protection against price dumping of physical products that doesn't exist for virtual products.

[deleted]

Re: SVB collapse could mean a $500B venture capital ‘haircut’

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment is underrated. Basically what these businesses do is they sell their products at a dumping cost. If that practice is illegal for physical products then so should it be for software.

Well, sure, but that’s essentially impossible to define for a product with zero marginal cost. You’d be making it illegal for a small company with x sales/year to sell for the same price as a large company with 2x sales/year.

At a very minimum, you can make it illegal to price a product below its marginal cost. This would have prevented e-commerce/rideshare/delivery companies from using VC-funded discounts to gain market-share and destroy less-funded competitors.
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