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Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

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Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#101

Post by dsfyu404ed »

akira2501 wrote: post #78
brewdad wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confused by this description. Are they saying the impact caused the driver to be ejected from the front seat to the rear? I'm not sure physics works that way. Are they saying the driver left the front seat and climbed into the rear so that he could blame autopilot when the police arrived on scene?

You'll find plenty of failed seats in crashes, it's a known factor and an item that has had it's share of recalls. I'm sure you can find many improperly or poorly positioned seats that also contributed to the post accident conditions.

Those failures are usually cases of "big man in small car gets rear ended" not frontal collisions. Frontal collisions almost never break seats. Humans don't rebound that hard.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#102

Post by dsfyu404ed »

BoorishBears wrote: post #25
ajross wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a system that regresses from basic LKA that was shipping in the mid 2000s in terms of safety Cite? Everyone likes to throw around the word "safety" as a qualitative thing, but the only data we have points to the system being extremely safe.

Mid 2000s LKA was passive systems in the US market: they were backups that vibrated the seat or steering wheel, or provided mild outputs. That meant they couldn't actively put the driver into danger, making them inherently safer than a system that will gladly drive onto a sidewalk Now what about active systems from back then? Almost 20 years ago Lexus had learned the lessons that Tesla kicked and resisted until about…

>Now what about active systems from back then? Almost 20 years ago Lexus had learned the lessons that Tesla kicked and resisted until about 2 years ago on

Lexus/Toyota doesn't "learn lessons". The are simply ultra-conservative about adopting anything so when anything is a dud or the V1 version sucks they wind up looking smart.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#103

Post by buffington »

statop wrote: post #95
ajross wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just so amazingly frustrating to have these discussions where people get so close to understanding and then willfully turn away. I mean, try this yourself! Pull up to a stop light, close your eyes, and recite the distances to and orientations of the nearest five or six vehicles. Now read it off the screen. Think you'll beat the car? Really? In fact, no, it's quite clear that the car, with 360 degrees of camera c…

That isn't how humans work. In any case, most humans are capable of FSD. Your Tesla isn't. No one cares about 360 degree 30Hz cameras. Just like two eyes aren't the solution to driving. Lots of animals have two eyes, most of them won't ever drive a vehicle. Other commenter "My coworker gave me a ride in his Tesla ... FSD tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist" Your…

I don't disagree with anything you're saying here, though with one minor exception: while Steve and Rick are two people with different experiences, risk acceptance, attentiveness, etc, FSD is FSD.

Speaking of risk acceptance, I wouldn't trust my life or anyone else's to FSD. I don't have FSD in my Model 3, but I have used all of the other driver assist features. There have been too many times when those features have made serious mistakes, so I don't use them. Even at it's best, FSD appears to be about as good as the worst drivers on the road. One anecdote of poor performance, for me, is one too many.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#104

Post by ajross »

statop wrote: post #95
ajross wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just so amazingly frustrating to have these discussions where people get so close to understanding and then willfully turn away. I mean, try this yourself! Pull up to a stop light, close your eyes, and recite the distances to and orientations of the nearest five or six vehicles. Now read it off the screen. Think you'll beat the car? Really? In fact, no, it's quite clear that the car, with 360 degrees of camera c…

That isn't how humans work. In any case, most humans are capable of FSD. Your Tesla isn't. No one cares about 360 degree 30Hz cameras. Just like two eyes aren't the solution to driving. Lots of animals have two eyes, most of them won't ever drive a vehicle. Other commenter "My coworker gave me a ride in his Tesla ... FSD tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist" Your…

> Should we trust Steve because Rick is a good driver?

We should accept that all drivers make mistakes, even you, and demand measurable safety metrics from all our control systems. Is that really so weird?

What we should not do is start thousand-comment flame wars on HN about how Steve is unsafe and that we should take away his license. In fact, those three mistakes are of course routine for human drivers. I bet you personally, statop, have done them in the past. And yet, no lynch mob.

That's the "hate" part I'm talking about. Please stop. Please. It's really hurting the discourse about a product area that's actually very subject to measurement, and about a specific product that is objectively very safe.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#105

Post by lamontcg »

diebeforei485 wrote: post #92

> the car accelerated from 39 mph to a top speed of 67 mph 2 seconds before the final tree impact, which occurred at about 57 mph. The application of the accelerator pedal ranged from 8% to 98% during the 5 seconds of recorded data, and there was no evidence of braking. My hot take is that it shouldn't be possible to accelerate that quickly unless you actually apply the pedal to 100%. Also, I think the accelerator an…

my hotter take is that there should be acceleration and velocity limits that are geo-gated and you shouldn't be able to go more than 30% over the speed limit in urban areas.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#106

Post by gamblor956 »

ajross wrote: post #104
statop wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't how humans work. In any case, most humans are capable of FSD. Your Tesla isn't. No one cares about 360 degree 30Hz cameras. Just like two eyes aren't the solution to driving. Lots of animals have two eyes, most of them won't ever drive a vehicle. Other commenter "My coworker gave me a ride in his Tesla ... FSD tried to cross over into the opposing lanes, ran a red, narrowly avoided hitting a cyclist" Your…

> Should we trust Steve because Rick is a good driver? We should accept that all drivers make mistakes, even you, and demand measurable safety metrics from all our control systems. Is that really so weird? What we should not do is start thousand-comment flame wars on HN about how Steve is unsafe and that we should take away his license. In fact, those three mistakes are of course routine for human drivers. I bet you…

Tesla's self-driving/ADAS have more confirmed fatalities than the self-driving/ADAS of every other automaker in the world combined.

The NHTSA shows that Tesla AP/FSD is 50+x more likely to get into an accident than Ford and Toyota's systems, despite Tesla AP/FSD being available in a tiny fraction of the cars. Tesla AP/FSD is more than 3x more likely to get into an accident than the second worst automaker's comparable systems.

It doesn't matter how you try to analyze the statistics, Tesla AP/FSD is objectively the most dangerous in the world.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#107

Post by Dylan16807 »

palata wrote: post #42
epgui wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you own a car, you typically only use it a small percentage of the day (it certainly is true of the average owner). When you're offering a ride service, that one car is being utilized a much higher proportion of the day. Ignoring the driver, taxi/ride-hail/autonomous-ride services are much more efficient uses of a vehicle over time. (And this is just a side note, but obviously if you don't have to pay for a huma…

When you own a car, you don't want to wait 20min before it's ready for you. You want to bring it in remote places where it will stay so that you won't have to wait 2h for it to come back. And you want to leave your stuff in it. If you are ready to wait for a car to come pick you up, or to plan your trip based on the schedule of the car, and to pack your stuff in one bag that you can carry along... ... then, my friend…

If a couple percent of cars were in this kind of system, they'd be waiting all over. It would be much less than 20 minutes. They could even set up equivalent "stations" where there's almost always a car parked within a couple blocks and it can get there before you do.

I don't go on a lot of long-term trips, but if I did that would still be a reason to get one car for a household instead of multiple. For rarer trips I would be happy to have a rental drive itself to my house.

If you mean day trips, then none of those issues are notable with a competent self-driving fleet except "one bag", but I don't think I've ever needed more than one bag for a day trip...

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#108

Post by Dylan16807 »

xeromal wrote: post #85
jo6gwb wrote: post #15

I'm not sure why they don't explicitly write in the report that the driver may have been trapped in the back seat, and was unable to locate or use the mechanical release to escape. While that wouldn't be a contributing factor to the wreck, it would be a contributing factor the the driver's death, and important for Tesla and their passengers to know about. The report states: The frontal impact with the tree resulted i…

Not saying this as a remark to you specifically, just a fun anecdote. Someone totaled my Model 3 on my birthday a few years ago and my front door was smashed. I smelled smoke and thought I had a battery fire (turns out it was smoke from the airbags). I crawled to the back seat and tried to open my door but it wouldn't open due to power loss. I ended up breaking the window because in my state of mind, I couldn't remem…

Why "luckily"?

Do you mean it would have been lucky in a different situation?

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#109

Post by ajross »

gamblor956 wrote: post #106
ajross wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should we trust Steve because Rick is a good driver? We should accept that all drivers make mistakes, even you, and demand measurable safety metrics from all our control systems. Is that really so weird? What we should not do is start thousand-comment flame wars on HN about how Steve is unsafe and that we should take away his license. In fact, those three mistakes are of course routine for human drivers. I bet you…

Tesla's self-driving/ADAS have more confirmed fatalities than the self-driving/ADAS of every other automaker in the world combined. The NHTSA shows that Tesla AP/FSD is 50+x more likely to get into an accident than Ford and Toyota's systems, despite Tesla AP/FSD being available in a tiny fraction of the cars. Tesla AP/FSD is more than 3x more likely to get into an accident than the second worst automaker's comparable…

> The NHTSA shows that Tesla AP/FSD is 50+x more likely to get into an accident than Ford and Toyota's systems

You just made that up. This is untrue, period. It's a lie. Please. Stop. I don't understand why you want to do this or what you think you're achieving by this kind of argument.

Re: Cause of Fatal 2021 Tesla Wreck Was “Excessive Speed” and “Alcohol Intoxication”

#110

Post by palata »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #107
palata wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you own a car, you don't want to wait 20min before it's ready for you. You want to bring it in remote places where it will stay so that you won't have to wait 2h for it to come back. And you want to leave your stuff in it. If you are ready to wait for a car to come pick you up, or to plan your trip based on the schedule of the car, and to pack your stuff in one bag that you can carry along... ... then, my friend…

If a couple percent of cars were in this kind of system, they'd be waiting all over. It would be much less than 20 minutes. They could even set up equivalent "stations" where there's almost always a car parked within a couple blocks and it can get there before you do. I don't go on a lot of long-term trips, but if I did that would still be a reason to get one car for a household instead of multiple. For rarer trips I…

Really it sounds like you describe an efficient public transport system :). Of course not every city has that (I hear public transport kind of sucks in the US), but still it's important to know that other countries have that, without autonomous cars.
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