Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave • Hacker News Board

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#101

Post by hmm0101 » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 7:00 AM UTC

foverzar wrote: post #91

hmm0101 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). I meant that the further away you go from these big cities, the worse everything looks. I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? ( https://web.archive.org/web/20210630123627/http://www.gks.ru... ) Russia is huge... if you go…

> Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). It is kinda bleak, though. > I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? How do you think they get these stats? Go door to door checking pipes? Actually, there should be documentation on methodology, but typically it's some s…

Somehow you have a different experience than I do. That is fine. But that is also the reason, why we need to rely on some sort of stats to give us a rough idea of the situation. In one of the articles that I linked it was stated that:

"Rosstat carried out the study involving 60,000 households in every Russian region between Sept. 15 and Sept. 29, 2018".

So they took a "representative" sample.

"Only 9 percent of Russia’s urban population reported lack of access to a sewage system."

Maybe it was a survey, people self-reported? Whatever you think it was, think of this: Russia has 146 mil people. Let's be generous and say that only 5 percent do not have any indoor plumbing. That's 7 mil people. Lack of indoor plumbing is much more of an issue in rural area. There are 20+ 'republics', some of which (like Тыва or Бурятия) have rural population percentage of around 50%. So that's 100s of thousands of people without indoor plumbing in these republics. Mind you, we are very generous with our percentage values here...

So, if we go back to the original statement by the parent comment:

"many citizens of the “republics” have never seen indoor plumbing"

Would you agree that the gist of it is true? I would even grant that some, maybe 10s of thousands in fact have never seen any indoor plumbing, if they never left their small village in the middle of nowhere to go to a hospital or some other place that has it. Russia is huge, it has a lot of people, it has a lot of 'republics', some are very rural, so it is not outrageous to state these things.

BTW, the column that I interpreted as "indoor plumbing" in the Rosstat document that I linked was "водопроводом". To me it means plumbing...

This is my last attempt at trying to explain how I see this point :) in any case, have a good one!

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#102

Post by pydry » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 3:33 PM UTC

hbrn wrote: post #92

pydry wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Join the back of the queue" is an uncharitable way to express "treated equally to all potential partner nations" Member nations in NATO are not equal. Never have been never will be. In not so many words, it meant that Russia would have to join the transnational gang as a foot soldier (Estonia) rather than a capo (UK) let alone a boss (US). Were peace with Russia a primary goal we would have started negotiations rath…

> In not so many words, it meant that Russia would have to join the transnational gang as a foot soldier (Estonia) rather than a capo (UK) let alone a boss (US). And what do you think makes US and UK above others? Here's a hint: US and UK are two highest NATO spenders. What NATO expenses was Russia able to afford in the early 2000s? Sounds like they wanted to be treated as a boss while chipping in as a foot soldier.

Without an enemy who even cares?

This was a diplomatic easy win that would have prevented a catastrophically expensive war IF you assume peace is the ultimate goal.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#103

Post by hbrn » Wed, Nov 09, 2022, 4:43 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #102

hbrn wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In not so many words, it meant that Russia would have to join the transnational gang as a foot soldier (Estonia) rather than a capo (UK) let alone a boss (US). And what do you think makes US and UK above others? Here's a hint: US and UK are two highest NATO spenders. What NATO expenses was Russia able to afford in the early 2000s? Sounds like they wanted to be treated as a boss while chipping in as a foot soldier.

Without an enemy who even cares? This was a diplomatic easy win that would have prevented a catastrophically expensive war IF you assume peace is the ultimate goal.

What makes you believe peace would be the only natural outcome? Putin turned out to be an authoritarian dictator with imperialistic beliefs, peace is rarely an option with those guys.

Russia being a part of NATO could allow them to invade not just Ukraine, but also Poland and Baltic States.

Do you believe Putin would not become a dictator if Russia joined NATO? It is entirely possible, but far from guaranteed.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#104

Post by wnoise » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 2:13 AM UTC

peatmoss wrote: post #85

wnoise wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a decent commentary: https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/x9oupk/2022_alaska... > Two popular suspicions are now confirmed. Nick Begich was the Condorcet winner. Sarah Palin was a spoiler candidate - her presence caused Mary Peltola to be elected, by prematurely eliminating Nick Begich. Here's another, that got down-voted to hell, because of the audience. https://www.reddit.com/r/ForwardPartyUSA/comments/…

Condorcet has arguably worse features: 1. Even harder to explain to the average voter than RCV 2. Greater likelihood of nobody winning / needing to conduct new election I am of the belief that RCV is not great, but that it is significantly better than status quo... and it is possible.

For 1, meh. Marking is the same and it is much closer to incentivizing honest reporting. For 2, everyone advocating for Condorcet has some favorite cycle-breaker. Mostly it doesn't matter; it's a lot more rare than non-monotonicity in IRV.

But my favorite is approval.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#105

Post by foverzar » Sun, Nov 20, 2022, 8:23 PM UTC

hmm0101 wrote: post #101

foverzar wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sorry, I did not mean that Saint Petersburg is bleak (quite the opposite). It is kinda bleak, though. > I don't quite understand what you mean by superficial attempts. If their stats say that 10-20% do not have indoor plumbing then that what do you think they mean? How do you think they get these stats? Go door to door checking pipes? Actually, there should be documentation on methodology, but typically it's some s…

Somehow you have a different experience than I do. That is fine. But that is also the reason, why we need to rely on some sort of stats to give us a rough idea of the situation. In one of the articles that I linked it was stated that: "Rosstat carried out the study involving 60,000 households in every Russian region between Sept. 15 and Sept. 29, 2018". So they took a "representative" sample. "Only 9 percent of Russi…

> BTW, the column that I interpreted as "indoor plumbing" in the Rosstat document that I linked was "водопроводом". To me it means plumbing...

"Водопровод" is "water supply", not "plumbing" in general.