Live data from Hacker News

Meta Myths

stratechery.com

101–110 of 210 posts

Re: Meta Myths

#101
post #63
post #4

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But the real story is simply Human Nature at work. Everyone ( or at least a sufficient amount of people with Power ) hates Facebook. And they need a good story to shit on it.

2 billion DAU (and growing) seems to be a strong argument against "everyone hates FB".

Is it? It's entirely possible to both use something due to (perceived) necessity while still hating it.

In certain contexts that distinction may not matter - a user is a user, right, who cares how much they hate you? But if a large enough percentage of your users hate your service, it should at least in theory reduce whatever moat you've built that keeps them captive.

Re: Meta Myths

#102
Disclaimer: I'm a former Meta employee and I still hold a bit of love and nostalgia for the company.

The article is right to point out that Meta has by far the largest and most sophisticated ad targeting and tracking system in the market. The problem is that even if you don't count Apple's ATT the window of places where they can use it is getting smaller: Facebook the app is a shell of its former self, WhatsApp is un-monetiseable despite a lot of attempts to get companies to pay directly to talk to other users, and new acquisitions are impossible in this post-Obama era. Instagram is growing, but mostly in countries with relarively low ad spending levels.

And there comes the difference between this drop and the one in 2018: ads work when people want to spend money on products. The pressures of inflation, rising cost of living, and devaluation of almost every currency to the USD is putting a block in the one reliable source of income for the company.

I would bet on Meta's stock price rising if the economic and social crisis in Europe magically improves tomorrow. Otherwise, it's a matter of believing in the Metaverse and hoping the Oculus Pro becomes successful enough to at least provide another large source of revenue for the company.

Re: Meta Myths

#103
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems impossible that a single example could counter a statement that is basically "it is good but also has some downsides."

I'm just correcting AlbertCory's wrong understanding of the word counterexample. I don't care for their discussion.

One pedantipoint for you.

Re: Meta Myths

#104
post #37

I always wondered if it was a mistake for Facebook to try to rapidly casualise VR after acquiring Oculus. If they spent even a small fraction of their metaverse billions developing high-end, niche products (flight/mech sims etc.) then they could cultivate a loyal base of affluent users. It probably wouldn't be profitable by itself, but it would grow their user base and act as a nice showcase of what VR is capable of.…

yeah, it's a bit weird that Marques Brownlee recently gave a better presentation on Meta/Metaverse than what Zuckerberg cooked up.

But I think that's the intent. Because when you lay out Meta's strategy so naked, like Marques did, then you realize that no one is going to buy into it. You need early adopters and those are the ones that are going to sniff out that you're actually building a dystopian privacy-invading Skinner Box platform controlled 100% by Meta and they will predictably eviscerate you.

Marques brings up the part of what Meta is focusing on now, which is creating replacements for everyday functions with a VR twist. He claims some of them are actually quite good. But I think this is the way Google approached Google+. People don't want something good-as or marginally better. What Meta needs is a killer app. Something that can only be done in the Metaverse and is so compelling that people are willing to give Meta full control over their life and spend the money on the hardware. That's a tall order.

Re: Meta Myths

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a "counterexample" because I didn't give an example. In any case, it's never a simple answer: vertical integration has advantages and disadvantages.

> vertical integration has advantages and disadvantages. Which Jobs acknowledged in his 1997 WWDC talk before becoming CEO (again). There's an execution burden with integration and it has to be overcome with solid execution.

It isn't just "execution" -- it's choosing what you ought to build in house now, and what's better to just buy.

Building the processor in house probably IS a good call. In Jobs' day, even he didn't build the processor. But nowadays, things are different.

Re: Meta Myths

#106
post #65
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but they’re not really for you. They’re for making it easy for Tiktok creators to cross-post their content. IG, FB, and YT all realized that if they force creators to choose between making Tiktoks and posts/videos they’re going to make Tiktoks. The cost of making entirely separate content has to be worth the extra audience and you can change the calculus by making the cost really low.

The super annoying thing about reels is how they don’t just play fully in the feed the way Tik Tok does. You see a weird 2 second loop and on that have to choose whether to engage. And FB has a horrible history with video, filling the feed with videos 10x too long that had no point and not letting users track forward. I cannot hate FB more than I do. If it wasn’t for Marketplace, my account would have been deactivate…

Marketplace always switches back to non local pickup when you search for something new. So annoying. We get you make no money from p2p local selling but they should just accept that and not make the users experience worse.

Re: Meta Myths

#107
post #55

Throwaway for obvious reasons. I joined to work on meta ads semi-recently. My thinking was that they were under invested in techniques I knew were successful from my time at Google. What I found was a lot of smart people who knew they were under invested and we're capable of closing the gap, but the infrastructure they sat upon was too hard to use to do anything different, and management that rewarded the appearance…

if you're allowed to say, what sort of techniques from google are they underinvested in?

Embedding-similarity based retrieval for one. Probably shouldn't get into the details here but Google has made incredible advances in the retrieval step of your typical retrieval / ranking pipeline and for a variety of reasons meta has not implemented them in production, despite having open sourced tools in this area. There are a few other advances like this Google has been using for long enough to publish on, meta engineers have working prototypes, but nothing is in production and everything breaks all the time.

Re: Meta Myths

#108

Myth 1: Users Are Deserting Facebook ..The problem with this narrative is that Meta is still adding users: the company is up to 2.93 billion Daily Active Users (DAUs), an increase of 50 million, and 3.71 billion Monthly Active Users (MAUs), an increase of 60 million.. I've been wondering about this for a while now: who are these people who are still using Facebook every day? All of my family has reduced facebook usag…

> Who are these people who are still using Facebook every day? Me. Most everyone I know. Move from the tech bubble to the suburban parent bubble and I think you'll that nothing is replacing FB anytime soon. The school pages are there, the kid's clubs and activities and team pages are all there. The neighborhood pages are all there, NextDoor exists of course but it tends to be poor imitation of the FB group. I know wh…

I used to use Facebook, but the rampant ads and dark patterns drove me away. I can't stand FB pushing video content in my feed. Some ads are fine (sidebar-only preferably), I understand that you have to pay the bills somehow... but I really don't like "recommended" posts in my feed. The lack of autonomy drove me away.

> Today is full of cute Halloween photos, reports on last weekend's high school sports team's results ( our marching band won the regionals!), and not much else. If there's a vicious underbelly than I am blind to it.

You mention that you notice the ads for geeky t-shirts and cross body bags (what are those?), but what about the recommended content? Do Stories and Reels not get in your way? Don't you miss content from school pagse, kids clubs, activities, and team pages because the algorithm decides that it would rather show you yet-another-meme-post?

I'm glad that Facebook seems to work for you. But it really sucks for those of us who don't agree with Facebook's business practices, because you contribute to a network effect that actively excludes non-users. I don't like Facebook's dark patterns, their advertising, or their "recommended" posts. So I choose not to use it. It's absolute bollocks that I can't easily look at community event pages as a non-user, and it only makes me happier that I've opted out of such a toxic, exclusive community.

Re: Meta Myths

#109

The All-In Podcast had a chart ( https://youtu.be/A-bIpJdaCnM?t=2126 ) that compared the Meta's investment on VR with the investment that changed human history in the past, all inflation adjusted. It's pretty interesting. iPhone: $3.6B, Tesla: $25B, Boeing: $32B, Apollo: $253B. And Meta's Reality Lab: $4B a quarter !

Just to be clear, "Apollo" here is the Apollo space program that invented and manufactured space flight and moon landing and return, over 13 years, in inflation-adjusted dollars. Through all the Meta-verse skepticism, I kept thinking that the payoff could be worth it if they capture the next big platform. But this put the scale of the investment in context, and now I doubt that even the wildest success will payoff for $250B of spending. And that's not even counting the opportunity cost of what else FB could do with that money.

Re: Meta Myths

#110

Myth 1: Users Are Deserting Facebook ..The problem with this narrative is that Meta is still adding users: the company is up to 2.93 billion Daily Active Users (DAUs), an increase of 50 million, and 3.71 billion Monthly Active Users (MAUs), an increase of 60 million.. I've been wondering about this for a while now: who are these people who are still using Facebook every day? All of my family has reduced facebook usag…

> Who are these people who are still using Facebook every day? Me. Most everyone I know. Move from the tech bubble to the suburban parent bubble and I think you'll that nothing is replacing FB anytime soon. The school pages are there, the kid's clubs and activities and team pages are all there. The neighborhood pages are all there, NextDoor exists of course but it tends to be poor imitation of the FB group. I know wh…

It's trivial that nice communities exist on Facebook. Positive, engaged people build good communities, regardless of platform or technology.

The same distributions of haves and have-nots exist on any platform. Reddit/Facebook/Instagram/TikTok/everything else are composed of an ever changing and uncountable number of communities, a few of which are bound to be good because of the continuous efforts of their members, and everything else is varying degrees of toxicity, narcissism, hatred, and every other negative trait you can think of.

If someone stereotypes you as a "toxic racist Karen" because you mainly use Facebook, it seems to follow the same reasoning behind why you might perceive Reddit as "horribly toxic and depressing." You get out of X what you put in.

Post reply on HN