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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#101

Post by Dah00n »

windexh8er wrote: post #51
mensetmanusman wrote: post #26

Highly recommend the economist’s podcast on Xi called ‘The Prince’ Xi became a Leninist and is trying to be the next Mao. He is a true believer that his glory and the glory of China can only happen by taking back Taiwan. TSMC is a huge reason for this conflict. The current US policy is trying to slow China’s technological might for that next war.

But China doesn't actually have a lot of technological prowess on their own. The USG might be trying to slow them down but they're not concerned about China militarily. I worked for a defense contractor back in the early 2000s when the USG was selling a lot of arms and systems to Taiwan. I got to see the bullying in person via the ASOC (part of the C4ISR platform) system we were installing. China would routinely fly…

>The USG might be trying to slow them down but they're not concerned about China militarily.

The one thing that matters in the long run is money and even though the US is fighting tooth and nail to halt China it isn't very likely to happen - who knows, we'll see. Whenever this discussion pops up it reeks of racism. People from China aren't less intelligent than people in Germany or in the US so with time and more money they will with 100% certainty overcome any technological gap. Sure they are behind in some areas but pretending they can't make a pen is disingenuous. They have had the capability to launch satellites since the 1970's and are now building a space-station. It is no different than saying the US can't make rockets because they had a lot of outside (Nazi) help after WW2. China has in a very short time-span gone from mostly agriculture to being in the top three in many (most?) high tech areas.

But in short can you explain why the US is using insane amounts of energy to slow down China if they are so totally incapable? Why do we need a completely new doctrine and pivot of the navy to be sailing around an utterly incapable and un-concerning China?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#102

Post by warinukraine »

nly wrote: post #54
ethbr0 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Voters in a democracy tend to react better to dollars-spent than bodybags-returned. So support via the former will always be the more tenable position for a democracy.

The best way for the EU to 'fight' russia would be to not be dependent on it for energy. Russia can also do what it likes because of the constant nuclear threat. Russia has nukes that work, whereas the likes of the UK has a single nuclear sub that occasionally gets stuck on a sand banks. The Russians probably know where it is at all times.

> Russia has nukes that work

Does it?

Nominally, Russia has roughly the same number of nukes as the US.

The US military budget is 700bn/yr and it spends 60bn/yr in maintaining its nuclear weapons. So 60bn/yr is a good estimate for what it costs to maintain a US/Russia-sized nuclear weapons arsenal.

Russia spends 60bn/yr on its military in _total_. However much of that goes into maintaining its nuclear arsenal is clearly not nearly enough. By all accounts Russia can't even maintain its trucks. Most likely the budget for nuclear maintenance is "disappearing" the same way that much state money disappears in Russia. Surely no on believes that Russia has been spending 60bn/yr since the 70s, when the last nuke was detonated.

Russia no longer has nuclear weapons, you heard it here first.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#103

Post by svnt »

bullen wrote: post #32

Everything can be predicted if you understand energy. Companies can't survive in a peak world without manufacturing crap. Sell more because your tools break. So now they are looking at how to do that under the premise of eternal growth: They will try to lock us down in the hardware = deprecate older hardware and force you to move to never software with TLS 1.3. That has never succeded because you can always hack ever…

Your argument doesn’t hold together.

Many traditional hardware companies are transitioning/have transitioned to some form of hybrid model or subscription service explicitly.

We are actually looking at degrowth, not eternal growth.

Processors may be near peaking but the Raspberry Pi is not a competitor with those processors.

The reason stock is down is because of supply chain issues still overhanging from the pandemic.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#104

Post by gsatic »

bsenftner wrote: post #16

With the Skyscraper tall wall of facts that article is composed, one would think such writing would have an index of references. But nope, what The Economists publishes sounds factual but is barely a nudge above laundry room gossip with a complete lack of references, lack of accountability for that wall of facts . It is truly amazing how manipulated our official discourse is on these critical issues. How to know what…

Just follow what the stock is doing. Everything else is bullshit.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#105

Post by StopHammoTime »

rr888 wrote: post #49
oneoff786 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also in the US’ strategic interests to simply make it clear that China can’t have Taiwan regardless of the TSMC however

Quoted post unavailable.

“Give”.

Taiwan have been preparing for this war since its inception. Taiwan will be going to war without Western support and I think most Taiwanese would prefer Taiwan burnt to the ground before surrendering without a fight.

If someone invaded my country there would be two outcomes: we win or I’m dead.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#106

Post by computerfriend »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #26

Highly recommend the economist’s podcast on Xi called ‘The Prince’ Xi became a Leninist and is trying to be the next Mao. He is a true believer that his glory and the glory of China can only happen by taking back Taiwan. TSMC is a huge reason for this conflict. The current US policy is trying to slow China’s technological might for that next war.

I also highly recommend The Prince.

But I don't buy this argument. TSMC is a factor, sure. In that it likely increases the cost of war. The PRC shouldn't expect that by invading, they'll win TSMC (the company, the tech, the talent, the market share).

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#107

Post by chernofool »

bfung wrote: post #14
senttoschool wrote: post #3

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

There’s gov intervention now, not due to shortage nor Covid related supply, but strategic moves that’s happening between US and China. With China having “seized” Hong Kong, and Russia invading Ukraine, flags went up signaling that the next major move in the future could be China invading Taiwan. And Taiwan is where the most advanced chips are made. In parallel news, playing with the open source AI models, it’s clear…

Are you certain that AI is used in any of the tech that the US is sending to Ukraine?

It's mostly cold war era equipment, designed around the '90s or earlier. Modern AI also seems very failure-prone for military applications around populated areas.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#108

Post by buscoquadnary »

cjf4 wrote: post #87
badpun wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The last time nations were obsessed with autarky, we got WW1 Were they? I thought WWI happened in the midst of first huge wave of globalization - to the point that no one thought war was possible, as it would mean collapse of international trade, and huge losses that come with it.

Many thought it was not only possible but inevitable: The Schlieffen plan, French revanchism, general military buildup across Europe, and of course Biskmark's 1888 comment: "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans."

You're both wrong. Many people subscribed to each belief.

The economists, globalists and industry people believed that it could never happen. The military, nationalist and political folks figured it would be inevitable, or at very least if it happened they had to win.

Many people subscribed to the argument of the economists and globalists in more democratic countries because it was a comforting illusion the people in the more militaristic autocracies, believed it was inevitable, and incidentally were the nations that hold the most culpability for WW1, Germany, Russia, Austro-Hungarian empire.

Wait a minute why is all of my description starting to sound terribly and horribly familiar to what is going on now?

Seriously those that will continue to posist that war will not come are foolish and don't realizing that the first steps are already in progress with the information war being waged right now through cyberspace.

Note I don't want a war to happen and think it will be horrible and terrible, but all the elements are in place for it to happen. A shifting balance of power into a multipolar world, multiple nations either facing decline or ascendancy, realpolitik becoming the norm in international relations, it all looks very grim unless some very wise, peace loving and capable leaders emerge on the world stage soon.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#109

Post by greedo »

kavalg wrote: post #94
mensetmanusman wrote: post #26

Highly recommend the economist’s podcast on Xi called ‘The Prince’ Xi became a Leninist and is trying to be the next Mao. He is a true believer that his glory and the glory of China can only happen by taking back Taiwan. TSMC is a huge reason for this conflict. The current US policy is trying to slow China’s technological might for that next war.

But I've always wondered if they need the tech or the land more. If it is the tech only, why not resort to industrial espionage or just kidnapping the key engineers from TSMC? Where does the core value of TSMC line on? It is the know-how, some specific machinery that is hard to replicate even if you have the blueprints or something else?

The PRC doesn't "need" Taiwan, either in a geographic sense or in an industrial capacity. This is purely a regime legitimacy test; the presence of non-communist Chinese right off the coast is a rebuke of the PRC. It's a bit similar to how Cuba is viewed in some parts of the US.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#110

Post by bluGill »

adeptima wrote: post #59
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

Good enough. There is nothing wrong with existing parts and so why spend money to design new ones. Inflation is bad enough without having to pay for new engineering as well
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