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Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

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Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#101

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

> “Outside his online play, Hans is the fastest rising top player in Classical [over-the-board] chess in modern history,” the report says, while comparing his progress to the game’s brightest rising stars. “Looking purely at rating, Hans should be classified as a member of this group of top young players. While we don’t doubt that Hans is a talented player, we note that his results are statistically extraordinary.”

I basically made the argument that, in any sport, when a player does statistically much, much better than their previous performance would predict, that in and of itself should be considered evidence of cheating - perhaps not conclusive evidence, but definitely evidence warranting further investigation: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32990022

> All this talk of "Carlsen accused him of cheating with no evidence" reminds me of the blowback against some athletes in the 70s and 80s who accused rivals of taking PEDs "with no evidence".

> Sometimes the evidence of someone doing monstrously better than can be expected by their history is sufficient IMO. I mean, look at this article about swimmer Shirley Babashoff [1], dubbed "Surly Shirley" at the time by the media, for suggesting the East German women were on PEDs in the 70s. Nowadays we look back on those images of the East German women, looking more manly than any dude I've ever seen, and wonder how we considered with a straight face that they weren't on a boatload of drugs. Similarly, it completely baffles me how any sane person can think that Flo Jo wasn't on PEDs in the runup to the 1988 Olympics - her 100m dash record still stands today.

> I'm not saying Carlsen went about it in the right way, because now Niemann is basically in an indefensible position, but I'm also not willing to quickly dismiss it because Carlsen has "no evidence".

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#102

Post by ed-209 »

Serious question: why isnt online play excluded at this level of competition? Why not restrict these "pro" matches to regulated conditions as in any other pro competition?

We dont generally place full trust in online job interviews so why lower the bar to "honor system" when it comes to the most cheat-friendly competition in the universe?

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#103

Post by pclmulqdq »

whatshisface wrote: post #93
pclmulqdq wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, I think, the single biggest factor in the proliferation of cheating. Most cheaters are smart enough to do the math on how they should win at the sport, or is smart enough to hire someone who can do the math. In other words, cheaters are rational actors. Allowing people back into the sport swings the EV math heavily in favor of cheating if the penalty isn't massive given that the chance of getting caught is s…

The alternative - an environment where innocent people were sometimes getting expelled - would be worse when it's just a game.

A tournament with a >$200,000 prize pool (the Sinquefeld cup or a Magic pro tour) is hardly "just a game."

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#104

Post by mkl95 »

selfmodruntime wrote: post #22

The fact that an athlete in a competitive sport was allowed to partake in an event even after admitting to cheating not only once, but twice, is outrageous in itself.

There are a few competitive sports where the same pattern occurs. Namely decentralized sports, particularly boxing where it's not rare for some elite athlete to be banned temporarily after testing positive for PEDs. Most bans are for 6-12 months which is a joke.

My guess is that the more decentralized a sport is, the more likely it is for cheating to occur and go unpunished. Chess is unofficially becoming a decentralized sport since the pandemic due to the shift to online playing. Even if some organizations claim to be in power, there is only so much they can do. Banning cheaters permanently may not even be possible.

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#105

Post by [deleted] »

fredoliveira wrote: post #66
jayski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a fan of this player, I don't even play chess. Still it sounds a bit harsh to me that a child that cheated online can never in his adult life participate in chess tournaments. If he had cheated as an adult I would have a different opinion.

Well, that's where the report comes in. He has cheated several times as an adult too.

[deleted]

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#106

Post by klrobert »

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #64
ghank wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is Carlsen taking a move from Howell in a Lichess prize tournament, which he'd never do OTB: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNMcnrmb97g

The move was pretty obvious.

Then why does Carlsen ask "how?" before playing it? This is a conversation that would never have happened in an OTB tournament.

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#107

Post by smaryjerry »

fredoliveira wrote: post #66
jayski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a fan of this player, I don't even play chess. Still it sounds a bit harsh to me that a child that cheated online can never in his adult life participate in chess tournaments. If he had cheated as an adult I would have a different opinion.

Well, that's where the report comes in. He has cheated several times as an adult too.

If you consider 17 an adult and that the report is correctly identifying those games. This is no different than cheating in a video game online. It’s playing random people from matchmaking for rating points tied to that game. Maybe there were multiple tournaments as well for small prizes (probably under $1000 prize money) if the report on the report is correct though. I’d compare it to an NBA player cheating in a pick up game of basketball.

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#108

Post by nordsieck »

t-writescode wrote: post #80
robswc wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

12 is fine... 16 is iffy... it was only 3 years ago. I'm personally a bit frustrated with the ever changing standards for adolescents. They are as responsible or naive as people want them to be for whatever their bias calls for. (not saying you btw, just in general).

Personally, I'm not a fan of permanent Scarlet Letters for .... I think I may go so far as to say anything .

> Personally, I'm not a fan of permanent Scarlet Letters for .... I think I may go so far as to say anything.

What's your opinion of the National Sex Offender Registry?

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#109

Post by kuboble »

FireBeyond wrote: post #71
aluminum96 wrote: post #27

It's a real red flag that he plays stronger moves after the browser window loses focus. I'd argue that's much less circumstantial than anything else so far.

Which shows ... I don't know ... naivety, or cockiness, or something. If I'm cheating at chess (or poker or whatever) online and I know that there are likely to be some form of anti-cheat scanning happening... why wouldn't you run your chess client on a computer beside you - then everything surrounding that is undetectable (processes, focus, CPU utilization, etc.)

Because he likely wasn't aware they they track it and having this other computer introduces other risks.

If he accidentally showed a picture of his second computer on the same desk during e.g. a stream it would be akin to guilt admission.

Re: Chess Investigation Finds U.S. Grandmaster ‘Likely Cheated’ More Than 100 Times

#110

Post by ActorNightly »

bombcar wrote: post #79
whartung wrote: post #32

So, I'm not much of a chess person, much less a competitive chess person. Can the "over the board" cheating potential be reduced with a 5 minute "tape delay" of broadcasting the game? Is that enough time to thwart the influence of an external signal? Seems to me the only way this person can redeem himself is through over the board play under strict conditions ("Come dressed in shorts, a t-shirt and sandals"). But I d…

It might work if there are no spectators live in person. Otherwise you can easily have someone in person relaying the information to a computer, or you have to search everyone, not just the players.

If it happened, I don't think it happened realtime.

Given sufficient notoriety and money involved, it would be possible to just hire someone to essentially run a training model of alpha zero against moves specifically selected to be likely to be made by Magnus, and then all you really need is memorization of key scenarios (which for a good chess person should be no problem) to identify the right move to make.

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