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Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

reuters.com

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Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#101

Post by desindol »

sprash wrote: post #85
wobbleblob wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that obvious? It's to strengthen Germany's resolve. The temptation to surrender and get the gas turned back on is going to be enormous this coming winter. Germany and several other countries have made plans to shut down parts of heavy industry to save gas for heating. This is more than likely to put increasing pressure on governments to give in to Russia's demands. Now they can't, even if they want to, so that…

Indeed. It's most probably an inside job.

You are saying someone crawled inside the pipelines and punctured them from within?

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#102

Post by shadowgovt »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #38

Any shared dependencies between the pipelines? Maybe just a time sensitive maintenance task that was neglected due to current state of affairs?

I'm not an expert on the layout of those pipelines, but it's unlikely that catastrophic explosions damaging all three pipes stemmed from the same root maintenance cause.

Not impossible without further information, but in general the whole point of having multiple pipelines would be to isolate them from this kind of shared failure.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#103

Post by cptaj »

RandomLensman wrote: post #73
wobbleblob wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that obvious? It's to strengthen Germany's resolve. The temptation to surrender and get the gas turned back on is going to be enormous this coming winter. Germany and several other countries have made plans to shut down parts of heavy industry to save gas for heating. This is more than likely to put increasing pressure on governments to give in to Russia's demands. Now they can't, even if they want to, so that…

There really isn't anywhere close to something like a median voter wanting to get the gas flowing from Russia again in Germany - now or in the winter. A government giving in to the more fringy hard right/hard left asking for that would not survive. The German-Russian relationship has been damaged for decades to come now.

And yet they keep blocking arms shipments to ukraine

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#104

Post by ajsnigrutin »

jeltz wrote: post #80
lenkite wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin has been telling Germany to certify and turn on Nord Stream 2 for gas - several times. Some folks who don't want normalisation of energy relationships decided to take this option away.

Sure, but Germany turning on NS2 is about as likely to happen as the US is to give in to Russian demands to stop sending arms to Ukraine. I cannot see any scenario where that happens so anyone sabotaging the pipelines just makes things unnecessarily complicated for no reason.

Honestly.. a few really cold days in germany, people get pissed and go out to the streets, and a lot can happen. It's one thing to watch the tv and get angry at stuff, while you're still well fed and in a warm home... once you're not, the shit gets real

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#105

Post by RandomLensman »

tokai wrote: post #8
IAmGraydon wrote: post #4

Who would benefit from this?

Anyone that wants to keep Germany off Russian gas no matter the developments.

Barring a change in the political structure in Russia, Germany IS off Russian gas.

There are no political alignments that would reverse that given that other options, such as allowing fracking again in Germany, are not even contemplated.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#106

Post by LatteLazy »

Gare wrote: post #53
LatteLazy wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA are the obvious answer. They've refused export licenses for gas for years specifically to keep US energy cheap so the US can compete with german industry. China are another answer. If they can't get the gas, there is less incentive for peace so more chance of the conflict rolling on and distracting from their activities. Plus, more gas for them to buy more cheaply etc. Chunks of the middle east as well, they…

I doubt that Chinese submarine could enter Baltic sea without being detected.

Isn't the whole point of subs is that they can go almost anywhere undetected, Chinese or otherwise? Hence all the fuss about Russian subs (possibly) entering Swedish waters over the last few decades, but no one being sure if it happened or whether the sub in question was actually Russian...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_submarine_incidents#Af...

Though I doubt there is any foul play here at all...

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#107

Post by desindol »

dividedbyzero wrote: post #84
IAmGraydon wrote: post #4

Who would benefit from this?

Everyone west of Russia and Belarus, including Germany, where political tension to open Nord Stream 2 has been rising, and that's without any psychological games Russia might have played with NS1 in the coming months. This is going to be a big help in keeping Germany politically stable.

There is nothing rising there was a demonstration of 2000 Pan European(!!) people at the pipeline buildings... we had more crazies out and about demonstrating against a trainstation, public transport and windmills.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#108

Post by ajsnigrutin »

roenxi wrote: post #78
Joeri wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas prices were dropping, half what they were at the peak. Putin wants gas prices to remain high to punish the EU and increase his own revenues. Since this incident they’re climbing back up. There are other ways for russia to export the gas than nordstream 1. He may think he can force an opening of nordstream 2. Putin has made so many errors in judgment that no strategy is too insane to be considered reasonable in hi…

I assume the Russians have some sort of valve on their end of the pipe that they could switch off. That would be cheaper than blowing the pipe up, and also givem more negotiating leverage. It probably wasn't them.

Yep, and putin has said that he'll close the valve (well, not him personally).

EU gets cold, and the only way to heat up is to sit down with putin and make some sort of an agreement.

Now, someone destroyed the pipeline, and there's no incentive for EU and putin to make any negotiations, since the pipeline won't be fixed before the winter is over.

But the USA will get to sell overpriced gas to EU

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#109

Post by shadowgovt »

seren wrote: post #60
LatteLazy wrote: post #55

Quick Question: Didn't Russia already turn off all of the actual flow for these? I mean technically it was the Russian gas company ~~sighting~~ citing urgent maintenance rather than Putin himself with a big spanner. But either way, flows were at <1% capacity right?

Nord stream 2 was never operational, Nord stream 1 was in maintenance if I remember correctly. But it raises the question if there are ever going to be operational again..

In a way, it's sort of astonishing how much damage Putin has done to his legacy in Russia with this foolish invasion.

One of the most impressive feats of pipeline engineering in the world and his inability to cooperate with other nations has catalyzed its destruction.

In some poetic fashion, it makes sense. A pipeline like this is symbolic of interstate cooperation. Not surprising it would not survive the breakdown of such cooperation that he instigated. When a state engages in medieval-style aggression, it can't have nice things.

Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day

#110

Post by jeltz »

eunos wrote: post #71
serpix wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

please elaborate further how the US would benefit from destabilizing German gas supplies.

German can't make a deal with Putin anymore since the leverage is gone

But there have been zero indications that Germany is interested in any such deal. Germany is fine with buying gas from Russia for euros, but they have displayed zero interest in offering anything else in payment. If Germany made such a deal I see mass protests and lets of criticism from the rest of the EU which would lose them tons of political clout within Europe. And for what? I do not think it would be worth it for German politicians.
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