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One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

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Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#101

Many people buy Bitcoin to "hodl", not to use, giving it some gold-like characteristic. If there was some crypto without any incentives of hodling long term, I'm sure the adoption would be higher. People don't spend Bitcoin the same way they don't spend gold in daily life: to own it as a long-term value reserve.

This last cycle, many people bought Bitcoin to use as collateral for loans, which was a novel and even smarter use of it. Use your money to make money.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> but that Bitcoin would replace all currencies (as early advocates would have had you believe) was not one of those reasons. Bitcoin was not bought because people believed it will replace all currencies. They bought bitcoin to get rich fast and cash out BEFORE the expected crash.

Yeah, that was happening too, but I was getting an earful of terrible economic viewpoints in the earlier days. I guess they could have all been lying to puff up their investments, but then I guess I'm left with thinking those particular people were stupid and liars.

I remember hearing similar economic arguments in 2006 - 2012 about gold and silver.

I often wonder if those same people moved into Bitcoin.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#103

What I don't like about this article is it is almost entirely focused on price. If bitcoin would have went up, it would have been a wise move according to the premise of the article. I think a longer timescale is needed. I'd like to see an analysis of the situation, assuming that the value goes neither up or down, but simply holds a constant value in an inflation indexed manner. Would it still be a bad idea in that s…

> I'd like to see an analysis of the situation, assuming that the value goes neither up or down, but simply holds a constant value in an inflation indexed manner. Would it still be a bad idea in that situation?

Why? BTC has zero history of doing this.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lightning is popular because few prefer slow transactions. El Salvador primarily uses lightning network, same network Strike uses for instant cross border payments.

Of course, I stand corrected about that. So, aside from irreversibility of transactions, what is preventing adoption?

It doesn't even use that, the Chivo wallet only uses LN for external transactions, everything else is a plain old centralised app.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#105
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it Every 4 years it looks like that. And yet the next greed fueled ascension comes around like a clock. Each next one smaller than the last one. Next one will come around 2025 but this time it's going to be just few hundred percent.

Eh there might be another bump. But as long as it's a space for scammers, pump-and-dump schemes, shitcoins and bullshitters it's just not for me. A pretty ridiculous amount of money has been sunk into making cryptocurrencies look like a big thing, instead of actually solving the problems that prevented people from actually using them. That makes me think that deep down the cryptocurrency people aren't that serious ab…

The "space" for a cryptocurrency is a Venn Diagram solely occupied by one circle: Bitcoin. We're seeing a culling of these shitcoin also-rans, which took the money from the late-coming naive while enriching the early wave of speculators, like any other common pyramid scheme.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#106
post #27
post #11

It's not a failure because Bitcoin tanked (relatively), it's a failure because Bitcoin tanking was and will always be a significant risk. People who got rich from Bitcoin weren't savvy, they won the lottery. It's not a sound investment decision based on outcome. Investments are sound based on probability and risk beforehand. El Salvador gambled which is stupid. Whether they won or lost at the lottery is inconsequenti…

Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? I went from living very comfortably to living paycheck-to-paycheck in about 6 months. Holding my value in USD has become a significant risk.

> Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently?

Yeah, its up like 100% over Bitcoin and like +30% over Euro, Yen, and GBP? In fact, holding Cash/USD has been basically one of the best performing things in my entire portfolio this year (after oil/energy)

Have _you_ seen BTC's buying power recently?

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#107
post #78
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? I went from living very comfortably to living paycheck-to-paycheck in about 6 months. Holding my value in USD has become a significant risk.

People are unable to distinguish "prices have gone up from money printing" from "prices have gone up due to the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine". Neither bitcoin nor gold can hedge against the latter.

Prices have gone up because we have demand side inflation:

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/inflation/inflation-la...

Which is mostly driven by putting trillions of dollars into the economy. The Fed had 1 trillion on it's books during the 07 recession. It has 8 trillion on it's books now. That's a major problem.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#109
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a failure because BTC has pivoted away from the Bitcoin whitepaper (p2p ecash), limited its blocksize and has taken the path of this strange "digital store of value" (lol). BTC's activity rose gradually up to 2017, and then topped off at 1MB and even dropped. [1] If Bitcoin's momentum hadn't been dissolved, it wouldn't require people to be forced by State to accept it. [1] https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/s…

Growth continued on second layers: Bitcoin's tx count on the Lightning Network has doubled over the last year. Forks of Bitcoin who attempted to scale by increasing the blocksize all failed and are practically dead (Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Cash, eCash, Bitcoin ABC, ...).

Someone needs to explain to me how the Lightning Network actually works, because I find it super sus. How do people make money off transactions as miners if BTC transactions are so cheap ?

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#110
post #88

After so many cycles, Bitcoin has become one of the most respectable pyramid schemes available to the general public (only behind real estate speculation maybe). I think we'll see another even worse cycle unfortunately within the next 10 years.

Real estate has at least one thing going for it: you can live in a house.
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