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Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

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Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#101

Post by redox99 »

wopwops wrote: post #60

It's not going to work. I happen to be friends with a top AI researcher and he laughs it off completely. "No way." He referred me to this: https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-tesla-self-dr... "It's all hype," said Steven E. Shladover, a retired research engineer at the University of California, Berkeley who has been involved in efforts to create autonomous driving for 45 years. "The technology does not exi…

I used to think FSD without lidar was just too far away (a decade+), but I've been checking every now and then of FSD beta progress for a couple of years now, and at the current rate of progress I changed my mind and I believe that in 2 or 3 years, and with one more hardware upgrade, it will be done.

Their latest 10.69 FSD (released yesterday) is quite impressive already.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#102

Post by [deleted] »

Fatnino wrote: post #98
abc_lisper wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, can’t argue against that. Tesla may not be for everyone, but it’s a damn fine commuter car just because of autopilot.

I have driven a friend's model 3 and while yes its nice, I feel like I would get more value for my buck with the driver assist in for example modern Toyotas. But I'm also perfectly happy driving my decades old Honda so what do I know.

[deleted]

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#103

Post by salawat »

davewritescode wrote: post #50
bufferoverflow wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? I watch FSD progress, and it's clearly getting closer to human level driving. Just go on YouTube and compare FSD from two years ago to the latest. It's night and day. Yes, it still makes mistakes. Humans make mistakes all the time while driving. As for build quality, we haven't had any major problems with our Model 3. It's a great car. Tesla has a media problem, where every little problem…

The "media problem" is completely earned by Tesla. You know how you avoid bad press? By consistently under-promising while over-delivering and bending over backwards to keep your customers loyal and happy even after they've handed over their money so that when they need a new car they return to you. German automakers are a great example of this. Whether it's gas or electric they significantly understate the performan…

Until Dieselgate at least.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#104

Post by [deleted] »

Geee wrote: post #67
klyrs wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it work in rain, snow, and/or night? How about country roads and roads without clearly marked lanes or misleading lane lines? It's like hiring a plumber who can only flush toilets, not install them. Self driving in pristine conditions is a party trick. Until it can do the hard part, it's nowhere near human-level.

FSD handles those situations well, compared to Waymo etc, because FSD doesn't depend on pre-mapping. Waymo depends on pre-generated 3D maps and it fails if there's a discrepancy. That's why Waymo works only on small areas and uses cherry-picked routes. See this example, where the map data is completely wrong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gTV9SlutU0

[deleted]

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#105

Post by washbrain »

HWR_14 wrote: post #79
washbrain wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a tern, it's amazing . I can bike at 30mph, most of my errands within a ten mile trip are doable on bike. I do grocery shopping, cargo delivery, a bunch of stuff. It doesn't replace a car for all trips, but you'd be surprised how many trips it replaces.

It doesn't look like it works for any kind of cargo movement. It does not look like it can handle furniture, bags of groceries, or open boxes. A car does all those things. Unless you have a trailer, I guess?

I have panniers and a cargo rack on the front and back, I've carried six or seven bags of groceries without having to think hard. I've carried a car seat and two large plastic totes at the same time with a bit of Bungie cording.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#106

Post by martindbp »

s1mon wrote: post #96
martindbp wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autopilot has basically been shelved for the past 2 years as they've been working on FSD, which will replace the current AP stack. Go have a look on Youtube, there are thousands of videos where you can see the visualizations, it's night and day. To save you the click, here's one released today with the latest version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCTssX2VdKA

That's crazy then. Is the hardware different, or just the software? I was under the impression that FSD was just basically paying for the software feature. It definitely looks much more dialed in, but still there's a lot of weird glitches with object permanence and physics failures that make me wonder how well this will always work. I was a little concerned with how fast the car was going on Lombard when the pedestri…

There are 100k people beta testing this, so you'll find any kind of situation imaginable on Youtube, whether downtown NYC, torrential downpour, weird intersections etc. Many Youtubers find edge-cases or difficult routs and then drive that same route for every version to see how it improves (or not). Chuck Cook's famous unprotected left turn is one of those that got (mostly) fixed this release.

> Is the hardware different, or just the software?

It's the same hardware, just software and deep learning improvements. There are higher resolution cameras and better inference hardware coming out, but they're claiming it's not necessary for full autonomy. My guess is eventually they'll hand it out for free just to avoid supporting old hardware. The current cameras are quite low-res.

> Is the autopilot preview meant to help sell FSD?

No idea, but I hope they change it to FSD visualizations soon. For a while they've been trying to join the stacks for freeway (AP), city streets (FSD) and parking into one, the famed version 11. Since AP has been using this old stuff that's probably why they use these visualizations.

And to be clear, this is definitely not done, requires constant supervision. But it's improving pretty fast.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#107

Post by davewritescode »

salawat wrote: post #103
davewritescode wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "media problem" is completely earned by Tesla. You know how you avoid bad press? By consistently under-promising while over-delivering and bending over backwards to keep your customers loyal and happy even after they've handed over their money so that when they need a new car they return to you. German automakers are a great example of this. Whether it's gas or electric they significantly understate the performan…

Until Dieselgate at least.

Yeah, was mostly talking about the German luxury automakers which is the market Tesla is trying to compete with most directly.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#108

Post by mlyle »

ac29 wrote: post #45
mlyle wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many people who have bought FSD from Tesla, and have had their car reach end of life without ever getting to enjoy FSD. It's possible after being "less than a year away" for... a decade... that it may be less than a year away now. But it looks like a bit of skepticism has been earned.

Are Teslas really end of life after 8 years? Why such a limited lifespan?

Original owner tends not to own car for 8 years; FSD "disappears" when you sell the car.

Plus, there's accidents, etc, that weed out a fair bit of the fleet before 8 years.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#109

Post by mlyle »

epgui wrote: post #89
olsonjeffery wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reasonable skepticism based on the facts presented.

A conflict of interest accusation is pretty serious, and I think if all you had to go by is your skepticism, you probably shouldn't just make that claim as if it were a known fact: that's just very dishonest. Sure, be skeptical, but then maybe say something like "I have no evidence for this, but I believe his manifest enthusiasm can only be explained by the fact that he's trying to manipulate the stock price to his o…

It is my understanding that he had a substantial amount of shares up to 2021-07-29. After criticism about the conflict of interest he claims to have divested his shares.

Re: Price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th

#110

Post by rvz »

Geee wrote: post #82
rvz wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Admitted? Yes. Admitted . [0] > The difference between L2 and L5 is liability. Everyone from the regulators to Musk himself have known that for years that it is more than just liability and none of the claims of achieving 'Level 5' FSD and the hype around the robotaxis have ever materialized with many customers falling for the scam lead by the pied piper (Musk) and once again increased prices on a broken product. […

The driver has to be liable, until the L5 system has lower error-rate than a human. For regulatory and liability reasons, it should be registered as an L2 until it's perfect. No one has ever claimed that FSD is a finished product.

> The driver has to be liable, until the L5 system has lower error-rate than a human.

Which that was promised to be completed in 2020. Where are the Level 5 robotaxis that Elon was confident enough to release by that year?

> For regulatory and liability reasons, it should be registered as an L2 until it's perfect.

And FSD was advertised as Level 5 by Tesla and was due to be complete by 2020 deadline. Even before that, many customers fell for this and were promised that future updates would eventually make it Level 5.

See how the scam works? Not only it was meant to be 'Level 5' as advertised by 2020, Tesla knew that it won't get there all along and continued the deception as their fans bought into the false promise and customers realised that they are paying for a broken contraption that didn't function as advertised and will continue paying for it as the price keeps increasing.

> No one has ever claimed that FSD is a finished product.

Yes. Elon (and Tesla) were the only ones that claimed and promised that it will be finished with robo-taxis on the road, at Level 5 FSD by 2020. This is the pied-piper scam and they have sold a false promise to their loyal fanbase and they will pay for an unfinished product until its 'perfect Level 5 FSD'; whenever that is and will continue to raise prices.

I also don't think it is ok to use unfinished safety critical software on the roads and put many driver's on the roads lives at risk.

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