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ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#101

Post by thaumasiotes »

Aerroon wrote: post #95
tomcam wrote: post #29

I can personally vouch that Amazon, Twitter, and YouTube all do horrible horrible jobs predicting my taste. And they have got worse over the years, not better

Part of the reason they're horrible is because people don't have consistent interests. I might be interested in raunchy content right now, but I won't be a few hours later. What determines whether I'm interested in the former is outside of the control of these algorithms - they don't know all of the external events that can change my current mood and preferences. As a result of this it makes sense for people to have…

> Part of the reason they're horrible is because people don't have consistent interests. I might be interested in raunchy content right now, but I won't be a few hours later. What determines whether I'm interested in the former is outside of the control of these algorithms

I don't think that matters at all. People don't complain that they're getting recommendations that would have been great if they had come in an hour/day earlier or later. When you get a recommendation like that, you consider it a good recommendation.

Instead, they complain that they're getting recommendations for awful content that they wouldn't choose to watch under any circumstances.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#102

Post by thaumasiotes »

armchairhacker wrote: post #47
ape4 wrote: post #22

You just bought a washing machine... could I interest you in a washing machine?

I think the reason this happens is that when you start looking for washing machines, you start getting ads for them. Then when you buy nobody tells the ad companies that you just bought a washing machine so they still send you ads because they think you’re still looking. Even if you just went straight to the model site and clicked “buy”.

We know that's not the reason; Amazon is infamous for advertising washing machines to people who have just bought a washing machine from Amazon.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#104

Post by tristor »

dominotw wrote: post #35
Slackwise wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

Maybe it considers environmental impact of air conditioning in its models and tries to nudge users into tolerating higher temps.

Which is not respecting your users. In fact, in my previous house the Nest was provided by the utility company and they used it /exactly/ for this purpose (although were legally mandated to notify us and allow us to opt out on a daily basis) where they'd intentionally raise your temperature during the hottest part of the day to reduce energy usage. But the thing is, I work from home, and if I'm sweating out a liter of fluids while I'm trying to work, I am getting nothing done and look unpresentable on meetings to boot.

In the end because most of the house was empty, I let the Nest do its thing and installed a separate mini-split AC in my office I kept set at 72 year-round because that's a sane and reasonable temperature for an office. Don't try to "nudge me into tolerating higher temps", respect my agency and choice about what is a comfortable environment for me to work in.

As a side note, I will never again buy a Nest product.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#105

Post by Eugr »

mbesto wrote: post #81
Slackwise wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

I've always heard this, and so when I went for my first smart thermometer I went straight to Ecobee (which I'm very happy with btw). So I gotta ask HN...what the heck was so popular about Nests?! It's one thing to be go after shiny lures like new iPhone apps or luxury items...but a Thermostat?! Mind boggling...

It looks good on the wall, has a bright large display that lights up when you approach and intuitive enough for non-techies to operate. Also it can be installed without a common wire.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#106

Post by mirrorlake »

HWR_14 wrote: post #88
aaronax wrote: post #34

ML is there to maximize business income--nothing else. If ML was benefiting me, it would know that 90% of the time I fire up Hulu I plan to watch the next episode of what I was watching last time. And it would make that a one click action. Instead I have to scroll past promotional garbage...every single time. Assholes.

I don't know why you assume the goal is "help aaronax watch what he wants quickly" vs "make sure when aaronax switches to his next series/movie it's on Hulu"

Customer satisfaction often translates into more dollars, though, because it means they won't cancel their service. I've had the same thought: if only this multi-billion dollar company could figure out that I want to continue watching the show I watched yesterday.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#107

Post by mrxd »

soared wrote: post #91
mrxd wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ML is useful for many things. I'm asking the question of whether prediction is useful, and whether it is accurate to describe ML as making predictions. The reason to raise those questions is that for many people, the word prediction has connotations of surveillance and control, so it is best not to use it loosely. The meaning of the word "predict" is to indicate a future event, so it doesn't make grammatical sense to…

You can predict a present state of affairs if they are unknown to you. I predict the weather in NYC is 100F. I don’t know whether or not that is true. Really a pedantic argument, but to appease your phrasing you can reword my comment with “We predict an increase in conversion rate if we assume the user is interested in feature x more than feature y”

That is a normal usage in the tech industry, but that's not how ordinary people use that word. More importantly, it's not how journalists use that word.

In ordinary language, you are making inferences about what users are interested in, then making inferences about what products are relevant to that interest. The prediction is that putting relevant products in front of users will make them buy more - but that is a trivial prediction.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#108

Post by HWR_14 »

mirrorlake wrote: post #106
HWR_14 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why you assume the goal is "help aaronax watch what he wants quickly" vs "make sure when aaronax switches to his next series/movie it's on Hulu"

Customer satisfaction often translates into more dollars, though, because it means they won't cancel their service. I've had the same thought: if only this multi-billion dollar company could figure out that I want to continue watching the show I watched yesterday.

I would think it would be long-term satisfaction optimization. I'm not trying to optimize your binging of a single show (which you might watch then cancel after), I'm trying to get you to love enough of my product line to stick around.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#109

Post by HWR_14 »

miguelazo wrote: post #90
HWR_14 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ability to remotely activate it is useful in the case of erratic short term rentals. Other than that, I'm not sure of the point

Which is something that a cheaper, more basic Honeywell model with way less surveillance potential can also do...

Indeed. I wouldn't buy a Nest. But there is a use case for an IoT thermostat.
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