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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

spiegel.de

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#101

Post by whatshisface »

nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

>it's difficult to just disable a single industry because the network effects are not really known.

Not to mention the unfairness of choosing one industry full of workers to say, "sorry, you're going to go jobless for the greater good," to.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#102

Post by rebuilder »

raverbashing wrote: post #69

My uninformed bet is that a) Russia likes money more and b) if they wanted to cut the delivery of gas they would have done it already They like playing the panic angle of course, and closing the tap once in a while, but I think it's mostly hot air

I’m guessing Russia will fully cut off gas to EU when it seems that either the EU is about to ban gas imports or turning the taps off will likely break the EU.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#103

Post by [deleted] »

Comevius wrote: post #93
toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity." Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case sce…

If it would be the 19th century wood and coal would solve the problem, but unfortunately nothing can replace the existing natural gas infrastructure. Winter is a few months away.

[deleted]

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#104

Post by pirate787 »

raverbashing wrote: post #69

My uninformed bet is that a) Russia likes money more and b) if they wanted to cut the delivery of gas they would have done it already They like playing the panic angle of course, and closing the tap once in a while, but I think it's mostly hot air

This was also the argument about Ukraine in early February.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#105

Post by SnowHill9902 »

londons_explore wrote: post #63
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Fun fact: Nearly all gas turbine power stations can also run on oil. Oil is usually a backup method in case the gas supply is disrupted, but it is possible for them to run on oil continuously. The exact oil type required differs, but some can use Diesel/Petrol/Kerosene/ethanol/hydrogen or sometimes even unrefined crude oil. With gas prices so high, many are already running on oil, and that's part of the reason Diesel…

Not really true. Liquid fuels are much dirtier and reduce the lifespan or time between maintenances a lot. It’s used only as an emergency.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#106

Post by veeti »

jlangenauer wrote: post #71
throwawaysleep wrote: post #10

Given that Germany ignored decades of warnings about this, let them take the brunt of the cuts.

There are so many people who want to see ordinary Germans suffer for decisions their government made. Do you think the pensioners who will freeze are the ones who decided on energy policy?

How many of those pensioners naively participated in Germany's anti-nuclear movement in the 70's, 80's, 90's?

You reap what you sow. No sympathy for Russian puppets.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#107

Post by lazide »

Juliate wrote: post #89
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen any impact of the Euro's drop against the dollar in your day to day life? Say, things from American companies getting substantially more expensive, or salaries rising to keep pace with American counterparts?

At this point, EUR/USD parity is way less perceivable and concerning in our daily lives than the gas/energy that is coming full speed towards us (seen from France), which is driving a lot of first and second order prices (heating, transportation in general, food, construction).

With a lot of fuel and energy trades denominated in the dollar, and all fuel and energy trades in competition with one of the largest economies which happens to be dollar denominated, these are not separate issues.

The ‘stronger’ (relatively) the dollar, the more expensive energy will be in every other currency.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#108

Post by blackhaz »

oxff wrote: post #24
ceejayoz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Let's not get nuked" isn't moralistic or insane, in my book. A hot war between EU/NATO and Russia is not something anyone should advocate for, nor is letting Russia just take countries it wants on the edges of Europe. The current situation is a direct result of ignoring a long pattern of Russian aggression and expansionism in Georgia, Moldova, and Crimea.

I'm not recommending to have a nuclear war over who gets to collect vodka taxes in some East European town. I am pointing out that these people let moral foreign policy run their entire trade block and foreign policy choices, and not a cold rational calculus of any kind. All the self-sanctions have come to nothing: they have not and will not materially affect the end result of the war. They've made me, as a citizen i…

Komintern was very, very active in Europe. You think Putin will stop on Ukraine, is that all he wants? He'll maybe pause on Brest when poor Europeans will be looking at golf-playing superyacht-sailing Russian mobsters robbing the EU. That's the dream. A bunch of power-hungry corrupt and immoral people who now have enough weapons to actually start doing this. They don't give a fuck about your Europe.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#109

Post by frostburg »

nathias wrote: post #74
ceejayoz wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rational calculus here is "Russia will keep doing this as long as we let them". The time to start getting off Russian gas was 2014. The EU, and Germany in particular, let a gun be pointed at their head for far too long.

yes, like US and China, we can't stop them and it doesn't help to kill our economy for a strictly symbolic action

Russia is failing, with its military reputation, one of its few assets, in tatters.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#110

Post by jahnu »

listless wrote: post #62
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Serious question here - I swear I'm not trolling and I've been asking myself this same question...' Would you be fine with it if you were on the margin? I have this same attitude about inflation in the US and rising interest rates. Good - we need to get the situation under control. But I'm not living on the margin. It affects me, but not really. I'll be fine. So I don't really have any skin in the game here. Not yet.

I think this is a great and fair question. It’s all fun and games until our own life is impacted. I have a family and am thinking about this carefully as I live a good middle class life in Austria and we are similarly impacted wrt gas. At the moment my position is that I would be prepared to sacrifice a heck of a lot in order to not give in to a murderous regime. I would be prepared to drastically drop my standard of living for several years. My thinking is that in comparison to direct involvement in a hot war that would be peanuts. Now, ask me again next year once I’ve gone through a cold cold winter and whatever other luxuries I’m missing out on. I hope I can live up to my ideals. I have met refugees from Ukraine and they need us to step up so they can one day go home in peace.
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