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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#101

Post by danielvaughn »

BurningFrog wrote: post #66
danielvaughn wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. I've had a couple of stints as a manager, now as a CTO for a small startup, and it's giving me so much insight into thinking about engineering from a business perspective. As an IC it's hard to get that birds eye view, but it's possible.

Can you mention one or two such insights about thinking about engineering from a business perspective?

1. A developers job is not to write code. You happen to write code as part of your job, but your core responsibility is to implement solutions to business problems. Sounds simple, but it's harder to realize in practice. Case in point was a recent freelance job I took on. This client had paid some devs for months of work on a Stripe integration. They had built all this custom code on the front-end and back-end. I came in, read the docs since I was new to Stripe, and quickly learned that a custom solution puts the company on the hook for 300+ security requirements for PCI compliance. I scrapped all the code and directed users to Stripe's own checkout page. Not as nice of a UX, but that company's customers are now much more secure, there is less code to maintain, and the client is happy.

2. Your managers aren't perfect people, but their livelihood is in your hands. It's incredibly stressful to be a manager, so try to have compassion and empathy for the position they're in. They have to explain to the executive team the progress you're making, and if no progress is being made, they take the blame.

3. If you can't connect the dots between what you're doing on a daily basis, and the overall trajectory of the company, then something's wrong. There's a broken connection somewhere, and no one other than you is going to realize it. Speak up if you don't think what you're doing is useful.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#102

Post by taway-yc-reject »

prohobo wrote: post #21

People said this was the "best time ever to get funding" for a startup. I disagree. In my view, it was the best time ever if you played a particular game and had the right connections. I pitched an idea to a VC, which I had a prototype for, looking for $100k. He liked it but wouldn't fund because I didn't have a solid business plan. Fair enough, I need to find a business partner. But then he told me something about h…

Yes, exactly this. And since you aren't chummy with the VC, even if you had a business model, you would be rejected "because you don't have revenue" yet. Fuck that noise. The V in venture is supposed to mean you're supposed to take risks.

SV has lost its soul. A VC that respected tech nerds would see your technical idea, (maybe) discount the investment, and then get on the phone and help you find a business partner that will take you all the way (and give you first right of refusal on assholes).

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#103

Post by bombcar »

nkabbara wrote: post #80

Is this a good time to start buying as everyone is selling/panicking?

It's always a good time to buy if you're doing dollar cost averaging into index funds.

Trying to time the market is probably a fools game, much better spent trying to avoid total ruin.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#104

Post by 1minusp »

epgui wrote: post #38
duckfruit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A rate hike that that was widely telegraphed and has been anticipated for years, to boot!

But it's the tone with which it was said, and the expressiveness of Chair Powell's eyebrows when he said it that was unanticipated. /s

Know that parents comment is /s but in truth, it really feels like interpretations of body language and text to indicate hawkishness/dovishness actually seems to matter.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#105

Post by olivermarks »

gowld wrote: post #39
olivermarks wrote: post #26

The problem I have with the Economist these days - they've changed a lot recently as has the Financial Times - is that they are one of the big cheerleaders for creating bubbles out of tech they clearly don't understand. This starves the startups that have compelling and reachable business models and goals because the funding goes to (quite possibly financially scammy) moonshots with vague goals somewhere over the hor…

> they are one of the big cheerleaders for creating bubbles Can you share an example?

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/20/the-ipo-is-bein...

The E runs plenty of cautionary articles and they are good at hindsight

https://www.economist.com/business/uber-doordash-and-similar...

But aren't exactly leading the charge against financial corruption imo

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#106

Post by simulate-me »

bushbaba wrote: post #73
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

...or housing will drop as interest rates go up. And a non insignificant number of folks were over extended in leverage. I know too many folks who did 7/1 ARMs cash out refi to purchase another home in a 7/1 ARM loan, banking not on cashflow but appreciation. I know of folks who bought homes using margin loans in their stock portfolio. If housing stagnates, there will be margin calls, leading to supply shock, and pri…

The price may also decline just because borrowing is more expensive. The difference between 2 and 6 percent interest is huge.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#108

Post by zeruch »

avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

"But I'm just an average developer what do I know. "

Usually more than the 'above average' founder or VC.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#109

Post by mmaunder »

freeqaz wrote: post #6

A lot of these companies have very reasonable P/E ratios now. Microsoft is sitting at around 27, Apple 25, and Facebook 15. None of those strike me as "inflated". Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Are investors just panicking?

If you've gotten used to paying $20 for a beer at Whole Foods, $5 may seem cheap until you realize the corner shop sells the same beer for $2.

Applying this analogy to our high inflation environment, those stocks seemed worth paying that high price per dollar of earnings, until the base interest rate started rising. Then you realized you can get the same return that your dividend yield provides by investing in a zero risk CD with no risk of losing the principle. Suddenly those stocks seem way too expensive for each dollar of earnings, and their price keep crashing until that price earnings ratio is something closer to the alternatives that the stock is now competing with.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#110

Post by 55555 »

whiplash451 wrote: post #77
pc86 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know exactly what it means. There is no way that you think tech in this context means "applying scientific knowledge for practical purposes" unless you have - and I truly, deeply mean this with zero disrespect whatsoever - weapons-grade autism. When did it become the cool thing to pretend to not know anything about the context in which a particular discussion happens? It's maddening, but also completely exhaustin…

I see where your anger is coming from, but there were quite a few other words than "autism" that you could have used.

I think "weapons-grade autism" paints a most vivid image.
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