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Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

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Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#101

Post by Mikeb85 »

Adraghast wrote: post #92
avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice. > Are you better than them? Are you?

> I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice.

Not OP but can answer... It's because if you don't start with a massive amount of capital you won't make enough money to support yourself. Hence why OP recommended to simply invest the time into your own job or start a business.

A 40% return on $100k (which is a great return BTW) is barely more than minimum wage...

Meanwhile a few % of a billion $ can sustain a firm.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#102

Post by danielmarkbruce »

amalcon wrote: post #18

I don't think it's possible to learn macroeconomics "properly", in the sense that one can learn e.g. quantum physics "properly". I pick quantum physics because not every expert agrees on some of the tail end of theoretical things, but there's broad agreement on the main parts of it. Those main parts are more than the average person will ever need to use. This is not remotely true with respect to macroeconomics. It's…

The agreement v disagreement thing is a symptom of:

Macroeconomic models can't predict the future.

The agreed upon physics models can predict the future to a crazy high level of precision. Even the ones we know are not 100% accurate.

So, it's basically a waste of time to spend too much time learning macro. It's largely useless.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#103

Post by bwanab »

John Maynard Keynes was arguably the greatest macroeconomic mind of all time, but after losing a lot of money, he came to the conclusion that one should invest in companies that 1) make products you understand and 2) have management that you trust. If that sounds familiar, it should since that is Warren Buffet’s strategy who has been known to quote Keynes often.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#104

Post by avvt4avaw »

Adraghast wrote: post #92
avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

I'm curious why you became a "professional investor" instead of following your own advice. > Are you better than them? Are you?

The glib answer is that my own advice in 2022 wasn't available to me when I started my career in finance in 2010.

The less glib answer is that what I said above applies to managing your own money as a part time investor. If you are managing other people's money as well as your own, and doing it full time, with access to huge datasets and sophisticated models, then you are playing a totally different game.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#105

Post by countvonbalzac »

avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

Do you have any recommendations for tax efficient wrappers?

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#106

Post by avvt4avaw »

shiredude95 wrote: post #87
avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

in other words dca is the most effective strategy for your average investor?

No. Invest everything that you can now (into low cost diversified index funds or ETFs) and then top it up regularly as you get more capital from whatever else it is you do to earn a living (e.g. a percentage of your salary every month, a percentage of your annual bonus, a percentage of the annual dividend from your business etc etc).

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#107

Post by [deleted] »

otterley wrote: post #81
avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

How are your returns compared to those of a passive S&P 500 investor over the past decade?

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#108

Post by unmole »

luciusdomitius wrote: post #28

Honestly. Start with learning what very basic economics is - "Wealth of Nations", "Human Action", etc and then try extrapolating your perception based on mastery of the principles. In practice this means deciding for yourself. Modern macroeconomics is an extremely controversial field to say the least and if you start from top (the propaganda-like crazy statements that both sides make), the result would be that none o…

Starting with Wealth of Nations in 2022 is a very odd choice.

Manikw and Krugman are on the opposite aisles of the political divide. But you'll find the same content in both their textbooks. Basic macro is not even remotely controversial.

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#109

Post by [deleted] »

otterley wrote: post #81
avvt4avaw wrote: post #74

I'm a professional investor (more than a decade of experience at hedge funds, particularly in global macro and quant, managing my own and other people's money). Your central premise is flawed -- in particular > Last 3 years has shown that to be a good investor you need to know macroeconomics This is not true. It is true that 'macro' events (central bank actions, supply/demand shocks, wars, pandemics) affect prices, b…

How are your returns compared to those of a passive S&P 500 investor over the past decade?

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: How can I learn macroeconomics properly?

#110

Post by box_out »

Jordi Gali's book is a great place to start for monetary policy and the Fed [1]. Speeches and working/white papers from the Fed board and regional banks cover topics that are immediate for policy but outside the scope of a macro textbook. IMF and BIS papers also very topical

For more on macro models, from a central bank perspective, Smets-Wouters and FRB/US are two workhorses. Ljungqvist and Sargent will enable you to read academic journal articles

[1] https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691164786/mo...

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