Live data from Hacker News

Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

artnews.com

101–110 of 262 posts

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#101

From another article on the same topic https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/apr/14/twitter-n... : > Man who paid $2.9m for NFT of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet set to lose almost $2.9m > ‘This is the Mona Lisa of the digital world’, says crypto entrepreneur Sina Estavi who bought the NFT in March 2021 This is a good example of why so many people don't take cryptocurrency seriously. It full of hype men who spout tr…

This is a genuine question - should anyone take cryptocurrency seriously? To me, the only purpose of it is to make money. It's the stock market, but with less rules, and it's 24/7. People will say that crypto is important because it's decentralized and non-fiat or whatever, with the implication being that it's not controlled by a government. But we have seen time and time again that that isn't true, and if a governme…

> should anyone take cryptocurrency seriously? To me, the only purpose of it is to make money. It's the stock market, but with less rules, and it's 24/7.

It's not the stock market at all. Not even close.

The stock market is a system that enables the buying and selling of shares in productive business - businesses that provide goods and services, that generate revenue and (ideally) profit. As a shareholder you own a fraction of that production, the assets, the profit. That's ultimately what determines the value of a stock over the long-term, its ability to generate sales and profit (and of course the bounds on valuations can swing widely over that time, multiples can contract and expand).

You maybe see crypto markets and think: gambling; and so that's where you're making an incorrect connection to stock markets. The stock market, if you're doing it right, is absolutely not gambling. Stocks are supported by the productive capacity of the business in question, ultimately; crypto doesn't work that way (at least not at present, maybe one will in the future). This is why Bitcoin has dramatically more in common with gold than eg stocks (gold isn't a producing asset, it's not going to spit off a dividend from profit every year).

The reason an entity like Berkshire Hathaway or Microsoft can so astoundingly trounce gold in generating returns over the long-term, is precisely because they're generative entities and gold is not. There's no compounding action to gold from the consequence of production growth (a lot more production is generally bad for the holders of eg gold or Bitcoin, as their value is based in part on scarcity), it's a hedging device primarily. Whereas if it's 1981 and Microsoft generates $3m in profit, they can plausibly reinvest profit and maybe get $5m the next year by hiring more engineers, launching new products, more advertising, etc. Rolling that expansion process forward is how you end up with $50m in profit instead of $3m. Gold, as with Bitcoin, does not work like that at all, there's no compounding mechanism. It's why gold sucks as an investment compared to eg the S&P index over time; although it's perfectly reasonable as an inflation hedge for a fraction of your assets, if one so desires to diversify.

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#102
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CDOs are groups of bonds. Bonds are debts, so they produce real value in the form of interest. If the debtors stop paying, the CDO can recover value in bankruptcy court. CDOs may misrepresent the risk of the underlying assets, but those assets are still there. An NFT is more akin to a baseball card - it’s value might go up, but that would just be because someone wants to buy it. It’s not producing any income on its o…

It was a tongue cheek quote from The Big Short… can’t wait for synthetic NFTs.

Hmm can I buy derivatives of NFTs? Like credit default swaps?

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#103

I genuinely don't know since most of my knowledge of NFT stuff comes from people commenting it vs. primary sources, but are there very active markets for NFTs in general beyond initial offerings? Like is there an active, healthy and functioning market for BAYC, or was it more about an initial rush and now a bunch of people have tokens that have value on paper but no market to realistically sell them?

There’s an active market, but it’s mostly winner takes all and ones that establish a brand/community (helped by the tokens gating access to merchandise or events). Also good when token includes IP. BAYC/MAYC is the biggest, milady seems to be getting traction (not sure why). These specific ones are also easy to liquidate for now because of opensea bots willing to sell ~10% below “floor” so they can flip later. I made…

> The interesting bit is gated community access/easily verifiable ownership of membership. The art is a meme-ish way to signal this status, but the ability to verify easily is the new capability

There's literally nothing new or interesting about memberships.

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#104

I genuinely don't know since most of my knowledge of NFT stuff comes from people commenting it vs. primary sources, but are there very active markets for NFTs in general beyond initial offerings? Like is there an active, healthy and functioning market for BAYC, or was it more about an initial rush and now a bunch of people have tokens that have value on paper but no market to realistically sell them?

There’s an active market, but it’s mostly winner takes all and ones that establish a brand/community (helped by the tokens gating access to merchandise or events). Also good when token includes IP. BAYC/MAYC is the biggest, milady seems to be getting traction (not sure why). These specific ones are also easy to liquidate for now because of opensea bots willing to sell ~10% below “floor” so they can flip later. I made…

One would think that it's a winner-takes-all, hit-driven market. But actually, looking at the current OpenSea 30-day volumes, the collections approximate a power-law distribution with an exponent of ~0.94, i.e. slightly more long-tail than expected from Zipf's Law. Granted, e.g. Spotify streams are even more long-tail (exponent~=0.5), but still.

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#105
post #17

So was it a NFT pointing to a hosted image, or a URL to the actual tweet permalink? The latter being marginally less ephemeral than the former. But neither would encompass any kind of "ownership".

And is what's out there the actual tweet? I'm sure their data is distributed & duplicated across many regions. Does the NFT encompass all of them? Are any of them even original? It's possible that the first bits & bytes on a server that hosted that tweet are long gone, tossed out after twitter scaled beyond its humble beginnings. The original could be a slagged hard drive, a cooled molten lump of metal & silicon. Act…

That's why usually NFTs point to IPFS addresses which are just hashes of the content and it doesn't matter where they are hosted.

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#106
NFTs as a technology are novel and useful. Unfortunately the way anything new first gets adopted is through the low-hanging fruit, where the proposed value is dubious and most entrants are cashing in on FOMO or operating straight up scams.

I hope that eventually more people will look beyond that and a little deeper into the potentials here. Especially for anyone that is dissatisfied with the status quo of capitalism, which seems to be the majority of people I meet? It's frustrating to watch peers fall victim to knee-jerk outrage and miss the forest for the trees. If you wanted a way to fight back, you could start by not hitting yourself in the face. Monopolies do not benefit from decentralization.

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#107

Just in time for the tax deadline.

That's not how taxes in the US work. If he sold it now he'd only be able to take the loss on his 2022 taxes, and even then he better hope he has a lot of gains or else he'll need to carryover the loss.

More importantly: losing actual money to save on taxes is hugely inefficient.

If he was doing this to save on taxes, he would have taken a paper loss via depreciation -- meaning, not actually selling it, just changing the book value of it -- with the intent of paying capital gains tax at some future date (well, more likely, borrowing against its "true" value indefinitely).

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#108

NFTs have made a little more sense to me since reading a comment on here or reddit effectively claiming that crypto is easy to get into, but hard to get your money out of. Especially depending on your age or where you live. As a result there's a lot of money floating around the space that people can't effectively extract, so instead they just speculate wildly on whatever they think will increase their virtual hoard.…

NFTs of jpegs are scams. NFTs that are linked to real-world assets (through intermediaries that you have to trust, yes — unlike everybody else on the blockchain) like stock, real estate or anything else are not.

I agree with you in principle, but if you're trusting an intermediary, then I struggle to see what doing this on the blockchain adds. If I'm going to trust a centralized entity to buy and hold land for me, then it seems like I'd want to go with a trustworthy centralized entity, rather than some new organization that was created to operate on the blockchain.

I think a better use-case for NFTs for now is as as keys, i.e. early investors to a project are granted a limited number of NFTs, which then allow them preferential access to later high-APR investments or whatever. This is a somewhat niche use case, but at least it's all on-chain and trustless.

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#109
There is no community or meme value for a tweet NFT. Apes and Punks at least have a community and celebrity fandom. That's probably why they have done far better ,and also the collectability aspect. You cannot collect tweets like you can collect Apes, which have a finite supply.

Re: Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M NFT dropped 99% in value

#110
An NFT purchased in the initial offering is the fun sticker/t-shirt/mug/toy you get for contributing to a cause or person you like. Especially when they can be used as tickets for special events or other exclusive things hosted by the aforementioned entity.

Thinking of it in the terms of a long term financial instrument you can always sell in the second hand market or purchase as an investment in the second hand market may work, but it is a gamble and seems more and more likely to leave you disappointed in the long term.

Post reply on HN