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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#101

Post by rwmurrayVT »

brightball wrote: post #91
mstipetic wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always wonder how they developed things like that in the 70s. Right now I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that. I feel like most of them would try and throw a neural net at the problem and call it a day.

I talked to a guy a few weeks ago who worked for a company that developed a guidance system before GPS that used stars like a sextant to navigate. Pretty crazy to think about.

It is also common in shiprepair to use the stars for aligning equipment with a theodolite like device.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#102

Post by def_true_false »

PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

Considering the lack of coordination of their ground forces and their absurd OPSEC, it might simply be communication issues. Fuel and maintenance issues are also a safe bet with Russia.

The Russian Buks also seem to be having a bad time against the Bayraktars.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#103

Post by lfowles »

mstipetic wrote: post #78
PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

I always wonder how they developed things like that in the 70s. Right now I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that. I feel like most of them would try and throw a neural net at the problem and call it a day.

It wasn't necessarily single engineers designing these systems in the 70s either.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#104

Post by nomel »

blast wrote: post #70
PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

If that is the case, why would officials and experts be "stumped"? This seems like the obvious explanation.

I don't see why an official would publicly broadcast active wartime capabilities and tactics that might not be known.

And, there's a strong possibility that we're experiencing some psyops here, to make the Russians appear incompetent. There's an active war. If history has taught us anything, psyops is as sure as death, in war.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#105

Post by _pd19 »

watwut wrote: post #69
whimsicalism wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectfully, the indiscriminate killing we have seen so far - while awful - does not even remotely hold a candle to what happened in Syria. They are clearly pulling their punches, likely because of the ethnic/racial dynamics of this conflict.

They expected to win quickly and easily - and are shocked it did not happened. Whether they pull the punches will be seen later. Historically, there was not much holding back punches between Russia and Ukraine. You may start reading about Holodomor, which is still debated whether it counts as genocide or not. For that matter, historically, Russia holding punches was not exactly the thing. Not even toward Russians. Th…

So many mis-statements of fact here.

> They expected to win quickly and easily - and are shocked it did not happened.

Very possible, but neither you nor me are in the position to know that.

> Holodomor, which is still debated whether it counts as genocide or not. For that matter, historically, Russia holding punches was not exactly the thing. Not even toward Russians.

The Holodomor was clearly a completely orthogonal issue to this as it wasn't a military conflict.

> Not even toward Russians.

What are you referencing in terms of conflict? Probably not chechens, because that would only go in favor of GPs point.

> War in Syria did not started by indiscriminate bombing of cities. It got there through series of escalations when rebels refused to give up.

Russia started intervening in 2015, 4 years into the civil war, and immediately began with indiscriminate bombardment of cities like Raqqa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_...)

> The idea that this will stop punches now that they are refusing, purely because both are white, is something only Americans can think.

The domestic opposition in Russia over killing far fewer people is already much larger than it was to the intervention over Syria which killed far more civilians early on.

It is not something "only Americans can think" that Russians care more about the lives of people of close ethnic relation to them as compared to Syrians.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#106

Post by bombcar »

tedivm wrote: post #62
slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

They hit the fuel train that was supplying the convoy with a drone strike and released the footage. The convoy has been stalled for days now, both due to fighting and due to supply chain issues (such as having their supply train blow up).

Isn't the supply train in the south in Crimea and the convoy in the north near Kiev?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#107

Post by StillBored »

mstipetic wrote: post #78
PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

I always wonder how they developed things like that in the 70s. Right now I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that. I feel like most of them would try and throw a neural net at the problem and call it a day.

I'm guessing most mechanical and/or ECE programs still teach "control systems", and that might be where one begins, along with some "signals and systems" and RF classes.

I suspect that the engineers you know are more computer science "engineers" than people who went through a traditional engineering core.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#108

Post by blippage »

PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

> convivial weapon

I had a quick chuckle at that. It reminds me of an old joke: a bullet has your name on it, a hand grenade is addressed "to whom it may concern", and a mortar shell is posted general delivery.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#109

Post by rr808 »

slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

That was my thought too. They have the luxury if just sitting there waiting safely for the right time while the capital self implodes. Western press talks a lot about it, meanwhile in the South the war is going badly.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#110

Post by 999900000999 »

platinumrad wrote: post #77
AlwaysRock wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have been bombing cities. I don't think they are trying to limit casualties.

Without minimizing the awfulness of this invasion and the fact that it must be condemned, it is not nearly as brutal as Russian operations in Chechnya and Syria or the US-led coalition invasion of Iraq, likely because Ukranians are not nearly as much of a racial or cultural other to Russians as Chechens or Syrians. The greater ability of Ukrainians to gain coverage in both traditional and social media may also be a f…

Thank you for articulating this better than I could.

You had a CBS* commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city".

That said, I think much of Russia's restraint is due to their end goal. Ukraine's Russian backed president was outted in a coup back in 2014. The new pro West leadership decided to go dancing with John McCain.

This entire conflict could of been avoided if we didn't keep trying to expand NATO. I know I'm not enlisting if the Russians invade Poland tomorrow, but the existence of NATO implies I am.

It's not hard to imagine if Haiti had a US backed leader, who was removed in a coup and then replaced with a pro Russia / pro China president. Now imagine China and Russia announcing plans for various military bases on Haiti. The Russians could finally have a warm water port.

In no universe would America accept Haiti having a right to its own foreign policy. We don't want anyone else playing in our backyard. To be clear, this doesn't justify a stronger country imposing it's will upon a weaker one.

This is worth a read.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_Wars

* CBS not CNN

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