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A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

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Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#101
post #26

I often wonder how money is stored. It can't be just a number on a computer in a bank, right? Otherwise some Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. And say "Look, we own 100 Trillion USD. Now let's go shopping.". So I guess USD needs to be recognized by the US somehow? Could the US simply "void" all USD that are owned by Russia?

Within the US banking system, all of that is, for the most part, kept in line with the Federal Reserve System and other regulatory apparatuses to keep everybody honest. Outside of the US, you run into so-called "eurodollars" (unrelated to the Euro currency) which is a complete mess of intertwined financial systems from across the planet that a lot of people smarter than me pin on being the cause of the European debt crisis.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#102
post #44

quite a few commenters have pointed out SWIFT as a hand of soft power and i think its important to understand the twitter post doesnt mention an important fact: SWIFT was created in order that Europe may resist Kissingers increasingly capricious hand of soft power as it emerged as a lead sap in an increasingly arbitrary US foreign policy. 40 years ago the US had become effectively drunk on soft-power moves against st…

This is a conspiracy theory. Please stop.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#103

Russian citizens like me will be hit hardest, as usual. Large institutions and wealthy individuals will find another ways to transfer money. Costs of goods and services will rise.

Yeah I just lost my business banking and can't anymore get payments from the states. But, most Russians support war, I don't care about them and ok with small inconvenience.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#104
post #26

I often wonder how money is stored. It can't be just a number on a computer in a bank, right? Otherwise some Russian bank could just increase that number to whatever they like. And say "Look, we own 100 Trillion USD. Now let's go shopping.". So I guess USD needs to be recognized by the US somehow? Could the US simply "void" all USD that are owned by Russia?

Let's just talk about USD specifically. (Other currencies work pretty similar, just with different central banks.)

The "single source of truth" is the Federal Reserve. Member banks (about 10,000 US domestic banks) can hold reserves directly at the Fed. Any reserve bank can directly transfer Fed reserves to another member bank or to the US Treasury using FedWire. The Fed "creates money" simply by crediting a member bank's reserve.

This is done in two ways, one is by paying interest on reserves. So if you're a member bank holding one million in reserves, the Fed simply bumps your balance up every night to reflect your interest payments. The other is by the Fed conducting "open market operations". When it wants to stimulate the economy by "providing liquidity" the NY Federal Reserve trading desk will buy treasury bonds and pay for them simply by crediting the balance of whichever member bank sold the bonds.

Member banks themselves can "create money" in the form of demand deposits. If you have one million in your checking account at Chase bank, all you really have is a promise by Chase bank to give you or whoever you want to send money to one million dollars. Essentially money is created the same way the Fed creates money, your checking account is nothing more than a credit in Chase's database.

However Chase's ability to create money is highly regulated and constrained. Banks have to conform to strict capital and leverage constraints. The OCC and other banking regulators will require that Chase hold enough assets in high enough quality to cover its deposit "liabilities". Some fraction of those assets will be dollars held as reserves at the Fed. Some will be bonds or loans, i.e. promises by other high-quality actors to pay dollars. Some of those assets could even be risky stocks, low quality bonds, commodities, etc. However the "risk-weighted" leverage ratio quickly scales up with risk.

In exchange for this regulation, deposits held at Chase or other member banks are treated as equivalent to Federal reserve dollars. That's because if for some reason, Chase is unable to pay back its depositors when they demand their money back, the Federal Reserve will "create money" to meet the obligations. This is essentially why bank runs no longer exist in modern banking.

Then there's the concept of "money markets", which is short-duration, high-quality assets that are essentially treated as "money-like". Often this tends to be short-term commercial paper from high-quality corporate issuers. A promise from Apple to pay $1.00 in 30 days is treated as "almost a dollar" by most of the market. In this sense, Apple can also "create money". But it's highly constrained, because it would quickly lose its credit rating or breach covenants in its longer-term bonds if it did so.

Finally there's the concepts of "eurodollar deposits". These are dollar deposits held at non-American banks but denominated in dollars. For example you could hold $1 million dollars at Mitsubishi bank in Japan, and you have a claim against Mitsubishi to pay out dollars whenever you want. Mitsubishi is not an American bank, and therefore is not directly regulated or insured by the Federal reserve. In some sense this makes eurodollars slightly less safe than dollars held at domestic member banks.

That being said Mitsubishi is regulated by Japanese banking regulations and implicitly insured by the BOJ (central bank of Japan). Mitsubishi will also make sure its dollar liabilities are never that large relative to its yen-assets. In the case of Mitsubishi failing, its highly likely the BOJ would bail them out by creating yen in the same way the Fed creates dollars. Some of that yen could be converted to dollars on the open FX market, and make the dollar depositors whole. Hence eurodollars are essentially just as safe as regular dollars as long as they're inside another high-quality banking system.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#105

All these sanctions are a bit of the joke when you are dealing with an insane leader in a country without elections and sitting on top of a pile of reserves. And the west is not doing one thing that could actually actually make a difference -- cutting oil and gas export because the west thinks it'll be too expensive for the west. I feel these sanctions are still more of signalling, than actually doing something usefu…

The inescapable fact is Germany intentionally put themselves in a position to be more dependent on Russian oil/gas with their shutdown of nuclear power. The previous US president made a point about how Germany's decision contradicts the purpose of NATO.[1] 1: https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1496917092351692810

The decision doesn't contradict the _purpose_ of NATO, which is a fairly straightforward military alliance. It does impact the _effectiveness_ of NATO, because one of its member states is economically dependent on a non-member state with a high likelihood of conflict.

Trump is saying that NATO shouldn't exist because of this intertwinement, and there's a sentiment going around that NATO caused the conflict by existing and forcing Putin's hand. Saying things like "the purpose of NATO is contradicted" plays into that narrative.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#106
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has basically fully eliminated bitcoin mining.

I think, if the SWIFT ban really was "on the table", they would be making the case for China's own CIPS/CBCD system, if Russia decided to opt for such service as an alternative. TIL the NSA [1] has it's tentacles in SWIFT too.. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT#Monitoring_by_the_NSA

The NSA targeting SWIFT is interesting because it's difficult to legally justify if one (or especially both) parties are US citizens. But spying on CIPS is exactly what the NSA is supposed to be doing. It's unlikely they are not.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#107

Russian citizens like me will be hit hardest, as usual. Large institutions and wealthy individuals will find another ways to transfer money. Costs of goods and services will rise.

IMO I think such acts only make the state stronger.

People will be “cheaper” buy. Votes will be cheaper. It only helps consolidate the wealth in the target country and makes the massez more reliant on large institutions and wealthy individuals.

I wish you best of luck in dealing with things to coms brother.

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#108
post #44

quite a few commenters have pointed out SWIFT as a hand of soft power and i think its important to understand the twitter post doesnt mention an important fact: SWIFT was created in order that Europe may resist Kissingers increasingly capricious hand of soft power as it emerged as a lead sap in an increasingly arbitrary US foreign policy. 40 years ago the US had become effectively drunk on soft-power moves against st…

Access to SWIFT is one of several economic tools which work together to limit and essentially “bleed out” the target economy. Although Russia acts like a big bully, their economy is relatively small (e.g. smaller GDP than Italy) which makes economic actions especially impactful (even if it will take a moment for them to fully reach their potential).

Re: A quick breakdown of what SWIFT is and why it matters

#109

IDK. In an interconnected global economy my sanction of you hurts you, but it hurts me as well. For example, the higher price of oil is good for Russia and OPEC, but not the rest of us.So where is the pain? Certainly there are things that Russia has that the West needs. In addition, if Russians are generally used to less - and the West isn't - then again where is the pain? After two years of pandemic are most America…

High price of oil is good for Russia only if they have buyers. And yes, in the short term it will hurt us but in the longer term you are disarming the influence of a bad actor with the added benefit of incentivizing cleaner energy and perhaps more efficient means of transportation.

Countries will almost definitely buy oil from them.

We had Turkey a NATO member buy cheap fuel from ISIS in the past.

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