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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#101

Post by simonh »

oblio wrote: post #73
CodeArtisan wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

None of those countries are in NATO and some of them were not super friendly until the crises happened. Ukraine itself is an example. Ukraine was posturing aggressively against Romania, NATO and EU member, as recently as 2009. I feel bad for what's happening in Ukraine, but they didn't really try to make many friends before 2014.

In 2009 Ukraine was under the control of Yanukovych, a Russian stooge installed through repression and rigged elections. He was Putin’s pawn and his posturing against NATO or Romania can hardly be used as criticism of the current Ukrainian government or the will of the Ukrainian people.

You’re implying that Ukraine didn’t try to make any friends before the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea. In fact it was Ukraines improving relationship with the west (including Eastern Europe, so not really even ‘the west’ anymore, really just Non-Russia and China the axis of autocracy) that lead to the Russian annexation.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#102

Post by hef19898 »

reitanqild wrote: post #80
rightbyte wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was no German enclave uprising in Poland with an 8 year stalemate. The situation in Ukraine has been very unstable.

Yep. You are right. Putin is even better than Hitler at this game it seems.

No surprise, given Putin's training.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#103

Post by khazhoux »

hef19898 wrote: post #78
khazhoux wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They... requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. I'm totally ignorant on NATO procedures, so forgive me that I don't understand the Big Deal here. Obviously, NATO nations will discuss this. They didn't need Estonia to draw attention to what Russia is doing. So this seems to me a bit like: The exact thing that obviously would happen next (NATO nations discussing) will still happen, but…

NATO, like every other organisation, is discussing things all the time. Article 4 is the equivalent of not just inviting to a meeting about about a topic but raising a formal JIRA ticket and invoking a formal process involving senior management to discuss the severity (and not the mere existence) of that ticket. So yeah, invoking an official article is a big deal, because it forces the whole of NATO to formally addre…

The formality had to be done. But the Article 4 invocation is not (I claim) itself a significant event.

To extend your analogy, this is like creating a JIRA ticket when your website with 100 million daily users suddenly goes offline. The shit has already hit the fan and it’s already all hands on deck.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#104

Post by woutr_be »

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are all NATO members. If Putin takes Ukraine, and redraws his borders, he's just adding 4 NATO members. Wouldn't make much sense.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#105

Post by ricardobayes »

gattilorenz wrote: post #69
selfhoster11 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World War 1 started because a guy was assassinated, for one. The tension was there, but the assassination was what set everything into motion.

"a guy" to describe the future emperor of the Austria-Hungary is an understatement. It's like saying that the world was shocked because in 1963 a guy was shot. Yes, technically true, but...

Yes. Tough to believe, but Austria-Hungary had the biggest army in the world, at the time.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#106

Post by glogla »

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

"Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#107

Post by runarberg »

chrischen wrote: post #58
kragen wrote: post #13

Non-error-message link: https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085... Text, 57 minutes ago: "#Estonia unequivocally condemns #Russia's military attack on #Ukraine and we have decided to launch #NATO consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other Allies." Crepuscular photo of some buildings and link to https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-governmen…

Previous World Wars were not one-sided. Pretty much the majority of the developed world (probably all of the developed world?) is against Russia right now.

Not to mention the apparent lack of popular support. Russian regimes in the past have fallen in a revolution while waging an unpopular war.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#108

Post by slg »

gambiting wrote: post #72
CodeArtisan wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

>And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die?

If we are going by the game theory, mutually assured destruction only works if both sides believe the other is willing to engage. If one side knows the other side will not engage, it becomes easy for the aggressive side to take advantage of the passive side.

Putin also doesn't want to die so the hope would have been that if the west was stronger and made it clear that an invasion would lead to war, there would be no invasion. Putin didn't see that commitment so he attacked.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#109

Post by winrid »

woutr_be wrote: post #104
winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are all NATO members. If Putin takes Ukraine, and redraws his borders, he's just adding 4 NATO members. Wouldn't make much sense.

That's certainly an interesting point.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#110

Post by thepra »

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

From Putins interview he does explicitly say that he wouldn't be in this position if the NATO didn't push for Ukraine, as simple as that.
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