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Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

economist.com

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Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#101

Post by VictorPath »

jcranmer wrote: post #61
VictorPath wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia annexed Crimea The Russian military was in the Crimea back when redcoats were stationed in New York City, and has been in the Crimea ever since.

Russia also signed a treaty that said it agreed that Crimea was part of Ukraine, not Russia. It tore that treaty up and invaded Crimea because Ukraine was thinking about not extending Russia's lease on Sevastopol.

The US secretary of state, James Baker, promised Russia that NATO would not expand eastward if Russia withdrew its military from the Warsaw Pact countries. This sounds like a broken promise to me.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#102

Post by rdtsc »

The scare of the attack is a great revenue generator for media companies. People in those parts are quite baffled why all of the sudden American media started caring about Ukraine. It’s not bad that they do, but it’s almost like they are goading Putin to attack.

Bloomberg even had a headline prepared that the attack already happened. Then they “accidentally” released it, and then of course, apologized. But they still got everyone’s attention.

The scare of the attack is also beneficial for the Biden administration. If Putin doesn’t attack, he will claim he saved the word from WWIII. If Putin attacks, he will say, of course he did, we told you so. But will he send American soldiers to defend Ukranians? I am guessing not. Just send few blankets and MREs.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#103

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

unclebucknasty wrote: post #15
daniel-cussen wrote: post #8

So to begin with, fact, Putin is a better chess player than Biden. You might think, oh it's just a board game, computers are better at it. You could say that. Apparently the strategy right now is get right next to the border of Ukraine and do military exercises, then watch as NATO loses its shit with every passing second.

So, Russia takes on a war posture. NATO naturally responds rather predictably, then Russia just pulls its troops back? What, exactly, is the strategic advantage there?

Russia splits the West, which is already in some chaos.

Germany is heavily reliant on Russian gas and has been unenthusiastic about sanctions, never mind stronger action. France is being "diplomatic". The UK is an incoherent mess because of Brexit and a mentally ill prime minister.

Also, energy prices. Which happen to benefit both sides.

It's exactly the strategy Russian trolls farms use on social media. Find multiple wedge issues, weaponise them - typically with narcissistic gaslighting and DARVO - inflame grudges and bad feelings on both sides, try to destroy the other side's common identity and purpose.

Putin will have to declare a victory of some sort, but it's likely to be formal annexation of a fairly small region. He'll also be able to blame poverty in Russia on Western sanctions.

The real weapon is the constant psychological and emotional pressure and deliberate confusion.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#104

Post by throwaway4good »

pbronez wrote: post #91
throwaway4good wrote: post #66

For some alternative perspective - here is an analysis from Chinese government outlet Global Times: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1252149.shtml US needs Ukraine crisis to harm European economy, and legitimize its military presence ... Chinese analysts said Sunday that keeping the crisis intense will benefit the US in several fields: legitimizing its military presence in Europe by demonizing Russia and poison…

Lots of fun creative writing opportunities in authoritarian propaganda offices.

Honestly I think it is a better explanation than Putin and his buddies have taken over everything and they are evil and have tunnel vision.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#105

Post by sudosysgen »

ericb wrote: post #86
t-3 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

> only the US & allied governments are actually actively promoting the idea of going to war. It's incredibly costly to park 150,000 troops and armor in a position to invade. But your issue is with the governments saying "excuse me, why does it look like you're positioning your troops for an invasion?" OK.

Don't overestimate the cost. If the units weren't there, they'd be doing large scale exercises and maneuvers, which can be even more costly. From the perspective of the Russian army, stationing a medium-sized force within their own borders is not going to be that expensive.

Also, the corresponding increase in gas prices is going to counteract that perhaps even completely.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#106

Post by moltar »

jcranmer wrote: post #61
VictorPath wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia annexed Crimea The Russian military was in the Crimea back when redcoats were stationed in New York City, and has been in the Crimea ever since.

Russia also signed a treaty that said it agreed that Crimea was part of Ukraine, not Russia. It tore that treaty up and invaded Crimea because Ukraine was thinking about not extending Russia's lease on Sevastopol.

… and because American naval base was to be built there.

https://en.topwar.ru/44990-zachem-vms-ssha-sobiralis-remonti...

The link to the official government page is dead now. But I have seen the original with my own eyes back a few years ago. And even saved it as a PDF, but can’t find it now.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#108

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

VictorPath wrote: post #35
unclebucknasty wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia annexed Crimea and has been engaged in a proxy war in Donbas for 8 years. The Kremlin has now amassed 100K - 200K troops at Ukraine's border. Yet, the Russian propaganda machine continues to claim it's the West that wants war. Can you explain how the West is the aggressor here?

> Russia annexed Crimea The Russian military was in the Crimea back when redcoats were stationed in New York City, and has been in the Crimea ever since.

Ah now, by that logic it would be acceptable for the British government to invade and occupy Ireland, India, and much of the rest of the world.

By which I mean, historical presence in an area tells us little about the legitimacy of current day activities.

And even then, Crimea was a terrible thing, but it made strategic sense (the russian fleet base is there). I don't see any real strategic benefit for Russia with invading the rest of Ukraine.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#109

Post by ptr »

consp wrote: post #33
unclebucknasty wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia annexed Crimea and has been engaged in a proxy war in Donbas for 8 years. The Kremlin has now amassed 100K - 200K troops at Ukraine's border. Yet, the Russian propaganda machine continues to claim it's the West that wants war. Can you explain how the West is the aggressor here?

While I agree with that premise, it is good to point out the NATO troops in Poland and the Baltic countries and weapon shipments to Ukraine is a thing. Though I doubt this is at the same scale, and we as simple people have no way to verify any of this and people generally trust the propaganda on whichever side they are on.

NATO troops and weapon shipments to Ukraine became a thing after Russia started threatening Ukraine's existence -- we want to help the Ukrainian people. We as "simple" people can decide whether we trust people like Putin or people like Biden.

Re: Why Vladimir Putin and his entourage want war

#110

Post by krzyk »

throwaway4good wrote: post #104
pbronez wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of fun creative writing opportunities in authoritarian propaganda offices.

Honestly I think it is a better explanation than Putin and his buddies have taken over everything and they are evil and have tunnel vision.

they (Putin and friends) a better and way more experienced players than e.g. Biden
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