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Turkey's Financial Crisis

adamtooze.substack.com

101–110 of 207 posts

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#101
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it matter if it is direct result or second order? BTW, this week, the interest on private loans increased substantially, not gradually.

Independent is very different from second order. And, yes I know interest on loans increased substantially but that has nothing to do with the new saving product and everything to do with the meltdown in the lira that preceded. Edit: And in any case why would banks raise loan rates if they don't have to bear the cost of the new product?

You are asking the correct question, it does not matter if the cost is financed by banks or public. The cost of borrowing increased substantially, even though exchange rate decreased in the last one week.

Access to TL got harder by the actions of the government. This is why interest rates increased.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#102
post #92

Erdogan pulled a huge pump and dump scheme a few days ago. He kept repeating everything that makes the Turkish Lira weaker and weaker, he and his government claimed that the plan is to lower the lira and compete on price and the lira is not weak because they failed but because that's the plan. We will be the next China, they said. Then on the night of Dec 20, he introduces a financial instrument where the government…

I wonder how long their pump will last, their USD reserves are now exhausted, their new savings plan will also cost a fortune.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#103
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

And the solution to that imaginary problem is.. to ban all women from wearing hijab? Excellent logic.

Well, yes. What solution do you propose? Mass propaganda? Perhaps possible in 2021, but it wouldn't have been as effective in the 1930s.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in case Turkey ever becomes a "problem" (read too powerful to control) Is this honestly the line Turks are being fed? The concern is Turkey becoming a failed state and terrorist hotbed, for the U.S. and Russia, and a new migrant source, for the EU. If Turkey could reliably project force in the region, it would solve a lot of American strategic problems.

"The concern is Turkey becoming a failed state..." Of course, there is a real danger of that happening. Turkey can indeed become a failed state...if USA attempts another coup or color revolution. Look, there are multitude of concurrent attacks, both military (inside Syria by using Kurds/SDF) and economic being made agains Turkey for it's failure to be a "good NATO ally". I don't like Erdogan, and I care not about wha…

> if USA attempts another coup or color revolution

The article this thread attached to is about home-grown economic orbital bombardment. If the Anatolian elite can keep the populace distracted by phantom foreign threats, they’ll succeed in extracting their wealth before the house falls.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#105
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until last year, US and Europe was desperately trying to raise inflation. I do not remember any time in Turkish history when this was the case. Anyways, current Turkish PPI is >50% (and it will only increase in coming months.). The real interest rate in Turkey is in far negative territory compared to US and EU, where they are desperate for inflation.

>> US ... was desperately trying to raise inflation. Well good news, they succeeded beyond their wildest dreams....

Right, but at least they said they know there is a problem and they will address it. It is not like how it is in Turkey where they said “inflation is high, let’s decrease it by printing far far more money and decreasing interest rate further”.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#106
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Erdoğan is a Ottoman and not an Islamic leader. He is using Islam to reach his goals but he is not married to it. He'll move away from Islam as soon as it no longer serves his purposes.

What is an "Ottoman leader"?

Essentially a Turk first and then a Muslim. Ottoman because it allows him to project hegemony because the Ottomans were the last Islamic "Caliphs".

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#107
Can anyone cite Muslim economists or theorista who endorse Erdogan's scheme? A vague "we don't do interest because Islam bans usury" hardly sounds like good policy. What is the Islamic alternative to the current macroeconomic framework?

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saudi Arabia as the direct source of Wahhabis, with the US funding and arming them. Russia has been supporting the secular Syrian government.

I fail to see how the US is funding the Saudis. Arming, maybe. Funding? Not so much.

The US funds Wahhabis all over the world, from Syria to Kosovo to Iraq to Xinjiang.

Re: Turkey's Financial Crisis

#109
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the solution to that imaginary problem is.. to ban all women from wearing hijab? Excellent logic.

Well, yes. What solution do you propose? Mass propaganda? Perhaps possible in 2021, but it wouldn't have been as effective in the 1930s.

Why did you use the word “propaganda”? Why not “education”?

Regardless of the time period, I would simply propose focusing on educating current and future generations that men and women have equal rights.

If you dig into history a bit, you’ll find that state-sponsored persecution - ethnic, religious, or otherwise - is almost always guaranteed to backfire in the long run.

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