101–110 of 304 posts
Hey everyone - we need to chill out for a second. Stop buying the knee jerk reaction of the media trying to freak everyone out and get some good advertising dollars. This is going to take until after the new year maybe Q1-Q3 timeframe to see if it is transitory. Reminder: we had an unprecedented global supply collapse followed by shutdowns and border closures for more than a year combined with historic levels of fast…
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You miss the key point on why this is happening and will continue to get significantly worse. What happens when the number of dollars approximately doubles in 2 years as it happened? Do you think prices stay the same and everything is just 50% off? Reality is that the current number is off by reality quite a bit, real number has to be much higher. It's just math and the worst part... it can't be just reversed.
We haven't doubled the money supply (not even close). The amount of misinformation in this conversation in the general public speaks to the lack of understanding of our monetary systems.
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I know HN doesn't like it when you criticize the US left but I'm here with you. I didn't buy a single word out of the Biden administration pre-election. The "never Trump" people were so blinded by Trump that they didn't realize the other guy was a worse bought and paid for puppet than Hilary. Hilary at least had a functioning brain and could reign in the Dems. Biden doesn't even know it's Wednesday.
Let's avoid turning things overtly political. It's understandable that government policy will be discussed in a thread about inflation, but it does no help on HN to veer into everyday smearing.
Hey everyone - we need to chill out for a second. Stop buying the knee jerk reaction of the media trying to freak everyone out and get some good advertising dollars. This is going to take until after the new year maybe Q1-Q3 timeframe to see if it is transitory. Reminder: we had an unprecedented global supply collapse followed by shutdowns and border closures for more than a year combined with historic levels of fast…
All you have to do is look at the Fed balance sheet to get an inkling of what's going on. They are monetizing the debt. Inflation is a very simple concept to understand. It's too many dollars facing too few goods. I understand no one wants a panic, but you also don't want to bury your head in the sand.
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It currently isn’t, hence the ‘if’.
There are a lot of ‘if’s’ in the world. In the context of this conversation it was pretty clear that this if was indicating some level of real likelihood. My point was that it just isn’t likely at all. No more than it was before this year anyway.
I don’t know how we would even quantify in any real what odds on any of these events practically speaking. Do you?
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Cereal I could buy for $3 and granola bars I could buy for $2 now cost $4.30 and $3.29 respectively. Detergent that was $5 is now $7.50. McDonald's cheeseburgers are $2 on their own. That is the largest jump of inflation I've ever experienced in such a short time.
That is not a lot of information, though. Processed food has been harder hit than real food and areas that are entirely dependent on trucking because of a lack of ports or rail also have seen much greater impacts.
However, what even that misses is coupons and sales.
I've mentioned before [1] but these prices still don't seem that serious. Most prices have still not beat their highs made in 2008-2014 (crude oil, global energy price, eggs, milk, sugar, rice, chicken, pork chops). Ground beef is an outlier, however. And US price per kwh is back at its peak, though it declined in these October numbers to be below... 2014 numbers again. [2] So while the climb up is bad, the prices th…
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Right but with massive debts and a fairly weak economy that is show signs of continuing to slow, this is exactly why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The smart mmoney is on rates staying low for a long time which shows you just how powerless the Fed is right now. They would LOVE to raise rates. They can't.
They will raise it as soon as inflation goes up, even if it cause the entire economy to struggle. Volker did exactly that in the early 80s.
Yoy 6% for october. Inflation is already up. What are they waiting for? 10%? 15%?
Also Powell isn't Volker by a long shot. I don't recall the Volker pivot because a few traders weren't having a good day.