What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks? • Hacker News Board

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#101

Post by kwertyoowiyop » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:54 PM UTC

CityOfThrowaway wrote: post #79

cmenge wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was trying to be a bit dramatic there... Sure, it affects everything and given the complex interconnections and dependencies within production chains / networks, the cause-and-effect relationships are hard to understand and cause for concern. But given how complex and decentralized things are, I am still amazed we haven't seen worse effects (yet). I doubt that spare capacity in logistics alone would make a huge dif…

First one thing, and then the next. The spiral is in its early innings right now. Hold on tight!

With shipping containers being sent back to Asia empty rather than taking an extra leg to mid-America to fill up on US farm products to sell in Asia, is the price of soybeans and corn in Asia going to spike soon?

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#102

Post by wvenable » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:54 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #72

hk1337 wrote: post #69

What's the deal with writing 20+ consecutive tweets instead of a blog post and tweeting the link to the blog post?

On Twitter as everywhere else, approximately nobody clicks the link. But there's some chance they’ll read through a chain of tweets.

I clicked a link to get to this twitter feed monstrosity.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#103

Post by skinkestek » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:54 PM UTC

justinator wrote: post #55

Sorry, I don't trust this guy. It was just explained how he uses social media to manipulate the story he tells. https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/an-unexpected-victor...

What? If this is manipulation then I'm a manipulator as is every other parent (and teacher, and every customer service worth their salt) aren't we?

Yep, we simplify. Yes, we tell stories. We don't lie. (No, teaching Newtonian mechanics without mentioning Relativity isn't a lie, and neither is simplifying the container explanations until even bureaucrats can understand it ;-)

That said, having

1. seen the email that circulated with my customers ten years ago about how container ships transport goods from Asia to US and American air back

2. and having recently listened to "The Goal" by Eliyahu M. Goldratt

I do wonder if this is really the best solution.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#104

Post by dredmorbius » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:55 PM UTC

nimbius wrote: post #58

I can speak from a trucking perspective. it was a cascade failure for professional drivers. when covid first hit, supply chains either had too much or too little almost instantly. Things like raw supplies based on JIT ordering either ground to a halt because demand died and so did the modelling, or because demand was too high for the computer model (think a bell curve.) low-boy trucks shipping things like constructio…

Rules and heuristics built for normal times and a specific set of expectations and constraints fail when those expectations and constraints are no longer valid.

Odd, that.

In my household, we started making our own pizza, from scratch (save canned / bottled Pizza sauce). Flour keeps and is shelf-stable. Most toppings survive refrigeration. Those best served fresh are bought as available, menu rotated as needed.

If your supply chain can't guarantee delivery of complex sets of fresh time-sensitive product, drop constraints such that the product mix is less time-sensitive. Sourdough substituted for dry yeast, unavailable at any price.

(This works well at the household level. It works less well at industrial-scale production where flexibility is greatly reduced.)

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#105

Post by kwertyoowiyop » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:55 PM UTC

evilotto wrote: post #33

He's right to point out that the obsession with RoE is a big part of the problem. He's wrong to suggest that the billionaire class and founders will solve the problem if we only trust them and let them keep their money. Founders have just as much incentive to optimize the excess out of the system, they just call it "disruptive innovation" by which they mean tweaking how the system works so that they can squeeze out p…

In the 80s and 90s it was called “unlocking value.”

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#106

Post by throwaway4good » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:55 PM UTC

What it is the alternative to the current just-in-time regime?

Warehouses filled with stuff to be sold. Overproduction. Stuff getting destroyed because it expires or cannot be sold for whatever reason.

We may get there, hopefully only temporary, as a reaction to the current situation. For most companies, the amount paid to the factory in China or elsewhere, is only tiny fraction of the price the product is sold for.

That is why companies now are double or even triple ordering. Most of that stuff will just ending up getting destroyed.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#107

Post by alex_young » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:56 PM UTC

E-commerce did it.

We operated with little head room in a very very big system for a long time without these issues, and the major change was online shopping, which really took off during the pandemic.

This worked, mostly because there was suddenly slack in the system to accommodate this changed purchasing pattern, caused by a slow-down in practically everything else.

Now that the everything else is back online though, there is massive contention for space on ships etc, so retailers hoard more in warehouses, and that backs up into container yards, and then into the parking lot at the dock.

Adding more capacity in the middle (stacking some containers) doesn't do anything to materially solve this problem.

https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.p...

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#108

Post by WesolyKubeczek » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:56 PM UTC

All nice and logical, and the stark lack of long-term planning is a huge part of the problem, but this:

> Only founder led companies and family owned businesses can stand up to the immense pressure from the dogmas of modern finance.

This observably does not compute. Unless those family owned businesses are the size of Samsung or comparable, they can rarely afford to invest so much in their prime, much less so now. Founder-led and family businesses seem to be the huge collateral damage in this clusterfuck. Or am I wrong? Are those businesses not hit with transportation growing expensive AF and energy shortages just as bad? Do they have enough lobbying power that their government simply will not let them drown one way or another?

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#109

Post by pchristensen » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:56 PM UTC

justinator wrote: post #55

Sorry, I don't trust this guy. It was just explained how he uses social media to manipulate the story he tells. https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/an-unexpected-victor...

I've heard Ryan speak at a dozen or so company meetings. He's genuine, knowledgeable, and has a long term focus not just on Flexport but on the whole freight industry and the global economy.

I'm not saying he's right about everything, but trusting his integrity and industry knowledge is a very safe first step.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#110

Post by erosenbe0 » Thu, Oct 28, 2021, 7:56 PM UTC

hosteur wrote: post #36

Afforess wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The TX Winter Storm and Big Freeze did more damage to the TX economy than the shutdowns. Try again.

That’s not a good argument. 1: damage done by shutdowns is still going on so we don’t even know the full cost. 2: the winter storm is not self inflicted. 3: I am not sure you are right that said winter storm did more damage. Would like a source though.

When analyzing the storm I'm not clear are we talking about the power grid alone or the normal organic effects of Texas just not operating well at those temperatures and pipes bursting, frost heave, exposure deaths, etc?