Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

grant-williams.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 131 posts

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#101

Post by [deleted] »

elvatoloco55 wrote: post #86
jcranmer wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look at El Salvador: in 6 weeks since officially adopting Bitcoin as a currency (next to the US dollar, not replacing it mind you) the number of people that now have "wallet" software running on their phone is already lager then the number of people who over the past 20 years were able to open a bank account. A few things. First off, a "wallet" is really a bank account, albeit one at a shadow bank (i.e., unregulate…

Exactly. When Visa and Mastercard started millions started using it and almost 93% of businesses started accepting cards in the first months. Nobody uses Bitcoin, only 1 small country

[deleted]

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#102

Post by futevolei »

elvatoloco55 wrote: post #86
jcranmer wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look at El Salvador: in 6 weeks since officially adopting Bitcoin as a currency (next to the US dollar, not replacing it mind you) the number of people that now have "wallet" software running on their phone is already lager then the number of people who over the past 20 years were able to open a bank account. A few things. First off, a "wallet" is really a bank account, albeit one at a shadow bank (i.e., unregulate…

Exactly. When Visa and Mastercard started millions started using it and almost 93% of businesses started accepting cards in the first months. Nobody uses Bitcoin, only 1 small country

I get this and think this is most likely scenario as well but at the same time this is equivalent to just getting your app started on the box and loading data or something correctly. It’s a step and you’re happy. These bitcoin guys just got their app to start up with limited functionality. They are happy.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#104

Post by skybrian »

elvatoloco55 wrote: post #86
jcranmer wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Look at El Salvador: in 6 weeks since officially adopting Bitcoin as a currency (next to the US dollar, not replacing it mind you) the number of people that now have "wallet" software running on their phone is already lager then the number of people who over the past 20 years were able to open a bank account. A few things. First off, a "wallet" is really a bank account, albeit one at a shadow bank (i.e., unregulate…

Exactly. When Visa and Mastercard started millions started using it and almost 93% of businesses started accepting cards in the first months. Nobody uses Bitcoin, only 1 small country

I’m doubtful that credit cards were as quickly successful as you imply. It takes time for consumer behavior to change. I couldn’t find a good link, but I vaguely remember a story about how BankAmerica had trouble at first after the Fresno drop?

The people claiming instant success in El Salvador are getting fooled by misleading numbers, but it’s at least plausible that this heavy promotion will eventually pay off there.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#105

Post by laserlight »

nradov wrote: post #47
benreesman wrote: post #41

I know some seriously sophisticated folks who are not only trading USDT at par, but even long , which I have long found puzzling given that anyone who didn’t just fall off the turnip truck knows it’s not even remotely capitalized to par. My personal suspicion is that when a trivially distressed asset is valued at or above par by smart people that those people expect a bailout/recapitalization. (Sidebar: USD is specia…

The US government hasn't used their military to force anyone to transact in dollars, or even threatened to do so. The dollar has value primarily because taxes inside the US are denominated in dollars. If you don't pay your taxes with dollars then eventually civilian law enforcement will show up and seize your assets.

When enough players believe that US would use their military power in case necessary, it won’t be necessary to use it.

> The dollar has value primarily because taxes inside the US are denominated in dollars.

The amount of USD reserves outside US is huge. Entities that hold these reserves have no interest in paying taxes to US government.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#106

Post by atatatat »

jcranmer wrote: post #100
atatatat wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's all I needed to see. And apparently it was enough for the Secretary of State's people to see, too.

I... am stunned why people think this in any way supports the narrative of petrodollar-supremacy. Because neither oil nor dollars are implicated in that string of statements at all. Especially GP's summary of the statement--"we bombed Libya because they wanted to price oil in euros instead"--is at complete odds with the implied statement here--"Libya wanted to move from euro-backed currency." Now it's important to no…

If not supremacy of dollar, what reason do you hold dear for the toppling of yet another sovereign government in this case?

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#107

Post by dragonwriter »

atatatat wrote: post #106
jcranmer wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I... am stunned why people think this in any way supports the narrative of petrodollar-supremacy. Because neither oil nor dollars are implicated in that string of statements at all. Especially GP's summary of the statement--"we bombed Libya because they wanted to price oil in euros instead"--is at complete odds with the implied statement here--"Libya wanted to move from euro-backed currency." Now it's important to no…

If not supremacy of dollar, what reason do you hold dear for the toppling of yet another sovereign government in this case?

> If not supremacy of dollar, what reason do you hold dear for the toppling of yet another sovereign government in this case?

Why the US and the West targeted an anti-Western, terrorism exporting dictatorial regime with a history of trying to acquire WMD whose overt ideology was a blend of totalitarian socialism and a unique version/descendant of Islam during a period where it was unusually active in targeting anti-Western, Islamic regimes especially those with a history of trying to acquire WMDs under the aegis of a war on terror?

Dunno. Must be rumors that they planning to move away from the CFA Franc somehow raising worries that they’d stop selling oil for dollars.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#108

Post by oraphalous »

qeternity wrote: post #30
leppr wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Second, 1USDT backed by less than 1USD in value is obviously worth less than 1USD no matter what happens to the USD. That's obviously not how it works. For instance, US banks have capital requirements of ~8%, but the dollars they issue aren't worth $0.08, they're worth a full dollar (as long as no bank run happens). The same mechanics hold for Tether, whether they're regulated or not. In fact, USDTs are often worth…

Here is a perfect problem with crypto: people understand just enough tech or economics to be dangerous, and not enough to truly understand the system. This is of course absolutely not how things work. The risk isn’t with the dollar holders in the banking scenario because a dollar isn’t backed - it doesn’t need to be backed. This is the essence of fiat currency. The risk is with depositors (creditors), and as you say…

>But in the bank scenario, the dollars that it loaned out aren’t worth any less.

Just a small point of clarification - I think - that helps to make your point a little clearer.

If the bank collapses - it's likely precisely because those loaned dollars ARE worth less. Commonly in bank collapses - those that borrowed from the bank can't repay for whatever reason. Creditors to the bank then get spooked and demand 'redemption' of their deposits.. etc

The difference is that whether or not a borrower from the bank still has that wealth is mostly independent of the actions of the bank (making other risky loans that lead to collapse etc). The value of the borrowed dollars depends entirely on the borrower. Whereas with tether - you might have locked it down in a hardware wallet encased in cast iron steel under your bed - doing nothing risky with it at all - but it could still go to zero in value. Tether's value depends on the actions of the issuer entirely.

Similarly - the owners of tether can't, through their risky use of tether endanger the prospects of the issuer; while borrowers can, through their risky use of loans, endanger the prospects of the banks.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#109

Post by notahacker »

323 wrote: post #89
ansible wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US government hasn't used their military to force anyone to transact in dollars, or even threatened to do so. There were rumors that Iraq under Saddam Hussein was looking to start pricing their oil exports in something other than dollars...

Oil is trading against Yuan for a number of years now: > Traders appear to embrace yuan oil futures contracts, pricing them similarly to the Brent and WTI benchmarks, says analyst > According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the volume of crude oil contracts traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) accounted for 10.5 per cent of the global volume at the start of June compared to 6.2 per cent in the second…

And with the Euro being explicitly set up by other countries with the intention of challenging the USD as a global reserve currency without the US so much as wagging a finger at them, it's a little hard to believe that the "real" reason a US administration dominated by neoconservative hawks resumed a decade-old conflict with an outspoken enemy in a strategically important region full of oil at a time the country was obsessed with fighting sponsors of terrorism was the relatively insignificant decision to accept Euros for some types of international payment...

The best you could say about that theory is that it's confusing cause and effect. Other nations which have been hostile to and sanctioned by the US for some time also shifted from dollars to Euros.

Re: Tether Discussion featuring Bennett Tomlin and George Noble

#110

Post by jcranmer »

atatatat wrote: post #106
jcranmer wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I... am stunned why people think this in any way supports the narrative of petrodollar-supremacy. Because neither oil nor dollars are implicated in that string of statements at all. Especially GP's summary of the statement--"we bombed Libya because they wanted to price oil in euros instead"--is at complete odds with the implied statement here--"Libya wanted to move from euro-backed currency." Now it's important to no…

If not supremacy of dollar, what reason do you hold dear for the toppling of yet another sovereign government in this case?

I think dragontamer has a compelling answer that is better put than I could have, but I would add one thing. Russia and China could have vetoed the UN resolution that effectively signed the Qaddafi regime's death warrant. But they didn't. Even if you don't care to understand anything about Middle Eastern or North African politics, that alone should suggest that there exists other reasons than naked Western imperialism for the toppling of the Qaddafi regime.
Post reply on HN