Live data from Hacker News

This real estate bubble won't pop

jaredabrock.substack.com

101–110 of 110 posts

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#101

Ah, the classic signal of a market top: "This time is different; prices can't ever go down."

Yeah I keep thinking back to when oil hit $160/barrel around 2009 and all I heard was how we "won't see sub-$100/barrel oil again in our lifetimes" and it's here to stay and nothing we can do about it. And then oil crashed to $60/barrel. And today it's at $80.

Maybe you think building houses in the majority of America is more sophisticated than petroleum surveying, extraction, capping, refining... I respectfully disagree.

The cure for high prices is high prices.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#102
post #65

One aspect of articles like this that I've noticed is the absolute certainty the author seems to have that these terrible outcomes are inevitable, with no expression of a confidence interval or possible less world-ending alternatives. I just... can't take articles like this seriously. It's the political equivalent of gore porn, and it feels like a waste of time to think about. When Nassim Taleb wrote about "Black Swa…

My lesson has been to neglect or ignore any statement made with certainty without any underlying data. The most credible statements ever made always had an element of probability/odds associated with them. That being said, some of the points this chap brings up don't add up to they hyperbole. AirBnB income - being double the actual rent in a particular neighbourhood ? How is this even possible. If you average out Air…

> If you average out AirBnB rental income over a year, you probably will end up with a slightly higher percentage than rent perhaps 10-30%.

Really depends on what kind of 'AirBnB' it is. If it's a condo competing with hotels then that's one thing - although probably still more than 30%. In comparison, vacation rentals can easily take in ~$500 to $1200/night. The only real difference between the two is that the later targets larger parties so the cost per person is actually cheaper than a hotel.

That said there are a lot of costs besides rent but net profit is still going to be 2-3x that of a long term renter but these only work in certain locations (that said the ban on AirBnB in certain cities actually produces more of these areas). Also, the house and other costs are all deductible such that you actually have near zero taxable income while having significant positive cash flow.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The price is determined by the intersection of supply and demand. With a bull market in real estate, demand is greater than supply. These two sentences cannot simultaneously use the same meanings of the words "supply" and "demand". In the sense of supply and demand required by the first sentence, the second is gibberish. > In the extreme, market prices converge to the maximum loan as GP described. What is the maxim…

>These two sentences cannot simultaneously use the same meanings of the words "supply" and "demand". The second sentence is technically incorrect. During a bull market, demand is increasing relative to supply. (If supply was decreasing relative to demand, prices would increase, but that would not be a bull market) >What is the maximum loan? The GP comment I credited described the "maximum amount of loan" as a functio…

> The GP comment I credited described the "maximum amount of loan" as a function of buyer income and interest rate.

But the price of the house is set without reference to buyer income or interest rate. It therefore cannot depend on "the maximum amount of loan", which is an incoherent concept anyway.

The government program juices demand by making financing more available than otherwise. This raises the price of homes. But that's the limit of what we can say.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#104
post #55
post #3

The price of the average house in the USA is based primarily on the government-guaranteed 30 year fixed rate mortgage. For a given interest rate and income, the house will cost exactly the maximum amount of loan the borrower can get. Banks no longer have any skin in the game - they go through a massive checklist, gather tons of documents, and once they can fulfill their legal mandates they immediately approve the loa…

Are you saying in the USA your fixed rate lasts for 30 years? Its there a significant premium on the duration? In the UK fixed rates last 2 or 5 years.

[deleted]

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#105
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My lesson has been to neglect or ignore any statement made with certainty without any underlying data. The most credible statements ever made always had an element of probability/odds associated with them. That being said, some of the points this chap brings up don't add up to they hyperbole. AirBnB income - being double the actual rent in a particular neighbourhood ? How is this even possible. If you average out Air…

> If you average out AirBnB rental income over a year, you probably will end up with a slightly higher percentage than rent perhaps 10-30%. Really depends on what kind of 'AirBnB' it is. If it's a condo competing with hotels then that's one thing - although probably still more than 30%. In comparison, vacation rentals can easily take in ~$500 to $1200/night. The only real difference between the two is that the later…

Agree with everything but the last sentence. Not sure how that could be the case-- if your actual costs are the same as your revenue your taxable income is zero but your cash flow would also be zero.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#106

I've always thought the solution to this was exponentialy increasing property taxes beyond the first property you (or whatever legal entity you create to horde properties) own. I'm dumb, so I'm sure there are reasons this won't work, but it seems like it should.

This basically exists in many places in the form of the Homestead Exemption. It's not exactly the first property owned, but the property that the owner lives in.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#107

I love this article! These types of articles are the signs the market is about to turn over. The eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearance programs [i]just[/i] ended. It will take some time for the contagion from those programs to propagate thru the housing market. Secondly, you can not get massive inflation with the velocity of money in the dumps[1]. Probabilistically, we are going to see stagflation until demand…

My dream in life is to buy land, set up glamping rentals, and build extremely cheap rentals (like $200/month for a earthbag home) for those who work low-to-middle class and their families.

Rinse and repeat all over America... make $100/night off the glamping sites, to subsidize the tiny-home communities. Flood the market w/ these so landlords have no use for their over-priced NIMBY homes.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#108
post #98
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada has seen staggeringly high real estate inflation in many places lately. There have been places that have seen 100%+ increases in prices over just the last few years.

Sure, that doesn't mean that they are experiencing average 40% housing inflation because they arent

You have to give a place and a time frame for these things, there are some places that did see 40% yearly inflation for multiple years in there (along with years of say "only" 10%). So while year on year inflation isn't consistently running at 40% it is still running very hot. Specifically some of the areas outside the major cities have seen spectacular inflation in house prices. A colleague of mine sold a house in Ontario for 200K CAD or so in 2016, same place now recently sold for a bit under 500K. While that's not quite 40% year on year it's close. Sure this is just an anecdote, the place could probably have sold for more the first time around especially if more renovations were done, but there's a lot of such anecdotes and I think that's why people throw around numbers like 40% because that's what they've seen lately and perhaps lack the numeracy or data to look at the bigger picture more accurately. In fairness the inflation in that broader geographical area of that anecdote is "only" 110% over the last 5 years. But the fact that 110% inflation can have happened in 5 years across a broad geographical region is just nuts.

But yeah there's places like Barrie Ontario that are like +70% in 5 years, Hamilton 70%, Oakville 68%. All those three are around +30% in the last year. Then there's some places that were previously cheaper areas like Niagara falls that's +93% in the last 5 years.

Toronto for comparison is around 70% over the last 5 years but 15% in the last year which shows that the Covid situation has meant that inflation of property prices in the major cities has slowed compared to areas surrounding. Given that wages haven't gone up much these numbers in the real estate markets are just nuts. I can't imagine this is good for the stability of the broader banking system over there.

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#109
post #51
post #2

Not a bad overview, but misses some things (1) political instability (2) $10M/home as sticker price wouldn't happen. Apartments and row homes would be more common substitutes (and already have sopped up demand in the starter home markets) (3) what inflation measures show 10% inflation?

It emerged in another thread that since the 1950s inflation has averaged 8% a year. Will try to find source...

What utter nonsense. Even not adjusting for improved quality, do you honestly think things cost 220x what they did in the 50s?

Re: This real estate bubble won't pop

#110

The author lists every reason under the sun while missing the most important one: zoning or aka restricting buildable land that is causing the housing shortage

There’s a whole lot of suspicion that these kinds of zoning laws that are upheld by leftists are cynical—they really just want to protect their property prices. But I think the left really believe what they are doing in blocking liberalization is good for communities. They’ve gotten into this mode of thinking that markets can’t solve problems of resource scarcity. Markets aren’t perfect, but one thing they surely can…

It's like you picked up Occam's Razor & then threw it in the garbage bin.
Post reply on HN