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Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#101

Post by dane-pgp »

torstenvl wrote: post #86
eplanit wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

In my view, the primary reason we are edging toward a new civil war is that politicians have decided to wield the law as a weapon in the growing urban/rural cultural divide. Classical liberalism is a necessity for pluralism, and pluralism is necessary for a country as diverse as the United States to survive. As soon as you drop "live and let live" as a fundamental principle and start trying to micromanage personal ch…

> ... should stop trying to ban ...

Or perhaps these contentious social questions should be decided by the individual states, and citizens should be free to move to states which best match their views?

It would be nice to think that the federal government could just ban "bans", but deciding what is and isn't a ban (or which bans are strictly necessary) is an equivalent problem to the one you are trying to solve.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#102

Post by tarsinge »

ttonkytonk wrote: post #73

Civilization requires trust and fairness. Saying someone theoretically has a fair shake therefore an unfair outcome is fair won't keep getting it. There's also this strange idea that government itself is a bad thing (from Thomas Payne's Common Sense ?), when the problem would be bad government. Someone has to make the big decisions, so if it's not the government, then presumably it's whoever has the most power? Then…

This is actually what bothers me the most. It seems we are moving from individuality to egoism. More than values I think it's the abandonment of a shared society narrative (the book "Sapiens" was insightful on that mechanism): why bother being a good citizen and play our role when the game is rigged at every level (bonus with taxes financing useless wars)? And all of that reported by media on a credibility free-fall. The social contract seems kind of broken (not without reasons unfortunately).

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#103

Post by enriquto »

eplanit wrote: post #33
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

> My favorite conspiracy theory is that the CCP is sowing the division within us to drive us to civil war, whereby they win WWIII without ever firing a shot.

How is this a conspiracy theory and how is this a bad thing? The so-called Cold War (i.e., WWIII) was won by the USA "without ever firing a shot", by exactly the same method: sowing division within the socialist bloc. Do you think that the U.S.-influenced division of its enemies was a bad thing? Would you have preferred an all-out war between the two nuclear powers?

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#104

Post by jacknews »

I think we're on the path of a new cold war between 'the west' and China, if not mildly there already.

Since China currently make almost everything, that could certainly cause some collapse-like symptoms, as key equipment becomes unavailable. Just look at some of the covid supply-chain issues for a taste.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#105

Post by torstenvl »

dane-pgp wrote: post #101
torstenvl wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my view, the primary reason we are edging toward a new civil war is that politicians have decided to wield the law as a weapon in the growing urban/rural cultural divide. Classical liberalism is a necessity for pluralism, and pluralism is necessary for a country as diverse as the United States to survive. As soon as you drop "live and let live" as a fundamental principle and start trying to micromanage personal ch…

> ... should stop trying to ban ... Or perhaps these contentious social questions should be decided by the individual states, and citizens should be free to move to states which best match their views? It would be nice to think that the federal government could just ban "bans", but deciding what is and isn't a ban (or which bans are strictly necessary) is an equivalent problem to the one you are trying to solve.

I never suggested that the federal government ban "bans" and, perhaps, the fact that you immediately thought of yet another government ban is emblematic of the problem I am describing.

In any case, yes, to some extent, federalism is a partial answer to ensuring a baseline liberalism.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#106

Post by voidfunc »

runarberg wrote: post #92
xsquared2 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However I would love to see American influence dwindle in favor of a more global solidarity of the workers of the world (including American workers). Pardon my assumption, but are you a software engineer in america? How would the downfall of American hegemony and union of transnational labor favor you?

Yes I am a software engineer in America (although from Europe originally). And to answer your other question, the downfall of America might favor me personally if it would be replaced with international solidarity of workers (as I am a worker my self). However my personal wealth is not my aspiration. Or as Mr. Spock once said: “The needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few” . If I am one of the few, who’s bene…

Alright there Comrade... lets hope your vision for the future never becomes a reality.

Here's the real rub, there's many of us who would also fight to preserve the status quo or something close to it. You think many (most?) HN'ers with their 150K+ jobs want to live either individually or with their families at a much worse quality of life so some folks an ocean or two away can be a little better off? Big doubt.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#107

Post by vishnugupta »

mistermann wrote: post #32
branko_d wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best stats you've ever seen | Hans Rosling https://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w

Having not watched the video due to crappy mobile (but I've seen some of his videos before), is this a "things are getting better, stay the course" type video, a "many things are ok, but we have very serious problems here", something else?

> "things are getting better, stay the course"

This is the overarching theme.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#108

Post by nebula8804 »

eplanit wrote: post #33
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

>As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war.

I don't think the population is capable of a civil war just due to their health.

[1]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States

What are they going to do? Fight each other on their Power Wheelchairs?

Yes I am aware of the far right arming themselves and training for years for a coming 'war'. I think with the Parler leaks + Facebook, I suspect the government knows the exact location of the overwhelming majority of these people and wouldn't hesitate to gun them down if some calamity broke out.

I agree that the CCP, Soviets and others are probably devoting some resources to spreading division. It is so cheap to do in the grand scheme of things so I guess that everyone including 'soft allies' might be participating but these tactics only work due to real issues in the society that have been unresolved for decades.

Besides...long term China has more serious problems to contend with. Things such as the coming population collapse, extreme climate change that threatens their food supplies, and growing unrest as the population starts to expect more and more from the CCP.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#109

Post by thow-58d4e8b »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #100
bluejekyll wrote: post #11

“By 476, the empire’s reach was zero.” I stopped reading right here. The Western Empire fell in 476 (for many reasons). The Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) lasted until 1453. Even that isn’t a perfect way of articulating it, given the continued influence of the Catholic Church had well into the 1500’s (Luther). In some ways one could argue civilization has never ended, but paused in different areas of the wor…

That's a very literal abd misleading reading. The collapse in the West had very specific observable results including: * A trade crash across the Western empire * A crash in manufacturing * Widespread famine * A retreat from cities and villas * The withdrawal of the military * The withdrawal of centralised government influence * Their replacement by regional warlords * A huge decrease in civil stability * A huge incr…

To steel-man parent's post, usually it's not that civilization per se collapses, the collapse is better characterized as a loss of state capacity. The important distinction being - technology wasn't lost.

This framing is also relevant to present-day conversations. Claiming that our civilization is collapsing makes people eyes roll. Claim that we're losing state capacity is a message people are more receptive to.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#110

Post by nebula8804 »

dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote: post #56
eplanit wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

Yea that's not a conspiracy theory at all. CCP/Russia most definitely have heavily targeted campaigns to sow disunity via the whole "USA is a dumpster fire" and "we're so divided" nonsense all over social media sites like FB/Twitter and Reddit. Of course Reddit being Reddit and so forth you get regular Americans gobbling it up and amplifying. Even worse when late-night hosts with big audiences do it. The strength of…

I hear this line of reasoning constantly from people who have had the system work for them. What they don't realize is that there is a huge portion of this country where the system is not working and thats where this discontent is coming from.

Their misinformation campaigns wouldn't work if there weren't real core issues with the society. The internet has empowered a generation the sees whats behind the curtain.

AOC said it best: Millennials have seen a situation where 9/11 happened in Middle School, the GFC happened in college and now the covid disaster has screwed hoards of millennials once again when they are trying to purchase a home and get on their feet. Majority of millennials have never seen a time of economic prosperity in their lifetimes. It is the complete opposite to what their parents experienced. With this reality is it any wonder where there is massive discontent that results in this division? The system has failed them.

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