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Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

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Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#101
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now address the reliability issue. Cost is only one factor.

solar + batteries is $40/mwh?

Last winter we didnt see the sun for 6 weeks, and didnt have enough wind to overcome the cost of keeping wind turbine blades de-iced.

Batteries simply are not an appropriate solution to the problem.

We would need to make massive investments in high voltage DC lines across the country, dumping tons of CO2 into steel and concrete for rare usage patterns.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#102
post #82
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's exactly what the above commenter was saying in: "European nuclear advocates really don’t have a satisfactory political response to Chernobyl and Fukushima." If a country experiences a nuclear accident like Chernobyl or Fukushima, your "number of casualties is lower than if we moved to coal" argument won't work. Cold numbers won't beat emotion. Edit: On downvotes, it's very demographically consistent of…

It’s more like cold numbers won’t beat lobbying. It’s not “if we moved to coal”. It’s “coal definitely killed more people than Chernobyl every few months for the last 100 years and is now literally burning the planet down, but somehow that’s OK.”

Yes, and that being OK is the magic of how emotions work! That's the exact valid point being ignored.

If you don't have a better response to a catastrophic nuclear disaster than "well, it killed people but coal definitely killed more people over time," then as the commenter said, you really don't have a satisfactory political response [1] to a nuclear disaster.

You're acknowledging the difference in our emotional response between gradual deaths over time versus a nuclear accident, but then hand-waving it away as irrational and unworthy of response, and ignoring that those irrational people form the majority of voters in the country.

[1] A satisfactory political response is one that will keep public opinion positive towards nuclear energy after a disaster.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anec-data: I’m in my 40s and live in the Vancouver area. The first time in my life that I ever experienced a smoked in summer was about 5 years ago. Actual data: the link you posted shows a decrease in fires overall, but the size and damage of them increasing. I guess when the fires are so big and start merging your overall count goes down.

> Anec-data: I’m in my 40s and live in the Vancouver area. The first time in my life that I ever experienced a smoked in summer was about 5 years ago. And up until last week, almost no one alive in BC had lived through record-setting temperatures, most of which were set in the 1930s. It just seems so counter productive to point to every single weather event now and say "see? climate-change". That's why people ignore…

Prior to the 1930's, we didnt even have reliable means of tracking temperature. If that is the sole argument for "this is climate change" an easy rebuttal would be "this is a natural pattern".

For singular events like this, there simply isnt evidence either way... only whatever intuition your predisposition tells you makes sense.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#104
post #99
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carbon taxes and tariffs would work yes. But you're imposing serious costs on people that they haven't shown any desire to support. Further, tariffs would disproportionately impact the poor in the developing world.

I'm 100% against the embargo of Cuba ... but let me use that as an example of: "it's not as if the US hasn't/isn't doing exactly that in other arenas". But I take your point, and I'm not sure of the solution.

The solution is economic, just not via tariff or tax. Clean energy must supplant dirty energy at scale. The only way for this to happen is to make it cheaper so the developing world will use it instead.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#105
post #41
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China dropped from 80% coal in 2010 to 57.7% in 2019. China’s exponential increase in electricity production means they don’t have nearly as many old coal power plants, but looking at what their building today is very promising.

And? Re: China, there's clearly not an effort to move away from coal if they're constructing new plants. The percentages may be less, but if the overarching thesis is to limit things that produce CO2 altogether, this statistic is irrelevant when contrasted with their actions.

> And

Coal power plants age. As their power demand has skyrocketed there are currently few 40+ year old coal power stations to be decommissioned. Looking at say 2050 the existing stock will mostly be replaced by whatever ratio they built between 2010 and 2050.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country

Solar in China went from 78 GW in 2016 to 254 GW 2020. The US had 40 GW of solar in 2016 and 75 GW in 2020.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anec-data: I’m in my 40s and live in the Vancouver area. The first time in my life that I ever experienced a smoked in summer was about 5 years ago. Actual data: the link you posted shows a decrease in fires overall, but the size and damage of them increasing. I guess when the fires are so big and start merging your overall count goes down.

> but the size and damage of them increasing Is your assertion that climate change is causing bigger fires, or could there be other contributing factors ie controlled burning, development etc?

The #1 contributing factor in this case is the western pine beetle, which exploded in range when winters stopped being cold enough to kill them off, and left stands of dead forests in its wake. Climate change is a direct culprit.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anec-data: I’m in my 40s and live in the Vancouver area. The first time in my life that I ever experienced a smoked in summer was about 5 years ago. Actual data: the link you posted shows a decrease in fires overall, but the size and damage of them increasing. I guess when the fires are so big and start merging your overall count goes down.

> Anec-data: I’m in my 40s and live in the Vancouver area. The first time in my life that I ever experienced a smoked in summer was about 5 years ago. And up until last week, almost no one alive in BC had lived through record-setting temperatures, most of which were set in the 1930s. It just seems so counter productive to point to every single weather event now and say "see? climate-change". That's why people ignore…

If you had to bet, or put money like you were investing in the stock market, what would you put as your best-guess odds on these records being broken again in less than 70 years (ie, a shorter time than it took to break them)? What about 50 years? 30? Keep in mind that as this record is higher than the previous one, it should be harder to surpass if the climate isn't changing.

Personally, I bet 50-50 we'll surpass these records in the next 20 years.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#108

I've been in that part of BC where the fires are happening. It's the dry region beyond the Rocky Mountains. Clouds coming in from the Pacific Ocean rain themselves out when the wind forces them rise above the mountains. So the other side of the mountains range gets very little rain. Grass is dried yellow in the summer. Easy for fires to start.

The Rocky Mountains are hundreds of kilometres east of the Fraser Valley. The mountains between the coast and the Fraser Valley is the Coast range.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#109

I've been in that part of BC where the fires are happening. It's the dry region beyond the Rocky Mountains. Clouds coming in from the Pacific Ocean rain themselves out when the wind forces them rise above the mountains. So the other side of the mountains range gets very little rain. Grass is dried yellow in the summer. Easy for fires to start.

You mean the coastal mountains, right? Beyond the Rockies is Alberta.

Generally the grass goes yellow here in the summer, even right on the coastline in Vancouver Island and up the sunshine coast.

Re: Canada battles more than 180 wildfires with hundreds dead in heat wave

#110
post #3

And yet we'll continue to treat climate change as an inconvenience that can be addressed in 20 years, when - to quote Alex Steffen - we're not yet ready for what's already happened. https://alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet-ready-for-wh...

Meanwhile some EU nations are opposing the classification of nuclear energy as green for ESG purposes.. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-four-others-...

Nuclear isn't truly green. It still involved mining, and industry that as of today does burn lots of hydrocarbons. Nuclear is certainly better, but it isn't 100% green. It could become green if we can manage to electrify mining and/or get uranium from alternative sources such as water. While I am a fan of nuclear power I don't think it is perfect nor totally carbon free. True renewables, when they are working, are still better than nuclear. Nuclear's niche is that 24/7 reliability that we need to gap-fill wind and solar.
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