Live data from Hacker News

CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

blog.waymo.com

101–110 of 248 posts

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#101
post #70
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think this is just the usual goal post moving, if a machine does it then we decide it wasn't really dangerous for a machine to do it. I've seen a lot of goalpost moving in the other direction on this one, to be honest - Self Driving Cars started as "never have an accident again!" and have slowly migrated to "look, you suck at driving, the robot sucks less, so stop bitching when the robot runs over grandma"

*runs over grandma who us trying to ilegally and suddenly cross the street right in front of the car

Have you seen the aerial pictures of the area? There's pretty clearly a path through the median that's inviting pedestrians to cross there.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#102
Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language.

Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would be great for them if they found it, there is a lot to be said for having a bunch of businesses that just make anywhere from a few million to a billion dollars a year in revenue.

I don't know if the attitude has changed since I was there but people creating $20M/year business revenue streams were not considered "successful" back in the day. I found that somewhat self defeating.

[1] https://gist.github.com/ChuckM/ff5fc8c800c7fe9160483b68ec45a...

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#103

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle. This happened silently at the end of 2020, and was overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic doom and gloom. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only…

> On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree.

I don't disagree with your take and I'm a self driving car proponent, but I'm worried about what process we take to get there.

One thing I've taken away from the pandemic is that people seem to have no problem imposing their tolerance for risk on others. Seems like we are on a path to play this dynamic out again in how self-driving cars come to market unless that safety profile is really well controlled and understandable.

Even if at a population-level self-driving is slightly safer statistically than person-driving, there are enough edge cases to give me pause right now, and at the individual-level it may raise my risk either as a pedestrian or driver and certainly changes what is predictable behavior [1].

[1]: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/04/why-its-so-hard-to-prov...

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#104
post #70
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think this is just the usual goal post moving, if a machine does it then we decide it wasn't really dangerous for a machine to do it. I've seen a lot of goalpost moving in the other direction on this one, to be honest - Self Driving Cars started as "never have an accident again!" and have slowly migrated to "look, you suck at driving, the robot sucks less, so stop bitching when the robot runs over grandma"

*runs over grandma who us trying to ilegally and suddenly cross the street right in front of the car

Yep, turns out that's the sorta shit you have to deal with when operating a motor vehicle.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#105

That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…

[deleted]

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#106

Having read hundreds of these sorts of CEO leaving letters I'm a bit jaded and cynical. If you're interested in what I see when I read that message, I rewrote it[1] in more plain language. Google demands a lot of its "other bets" companies. Some might say it asks too much. Mostly it seems to me that they want a 'moonshot' company that has the original profitability of search advertising, full stop. And while it would…

Your rewrite was extremely well done.

It’s too bad CEOs don’t write their PR like you have done. Like when they drive companies into the ground, lay everyone off, and then they exit with millions.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle. This happened silently at the end of 2020, and was overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic doom and gloom. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only…

> On the subject of automation. Humanity is on track to have the computational power to perform whole brain emulation decades before 2100. Even if we don't solve the general AI problem through other pathways, we will solve it through this path. Ethical problems aside, once this is achieved, everything will be automatable at a human level of competence. Is this actually true? I haven't heard of this. You're saying we…

We have no idea what kind of "whole brain emulation" it would take to produce what we understand as intelligence, so all this seems highly speculative.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#108

All of the big players in self-driving have shown that while they can try to solve the tech problem, nobody can solve the team problem. Self-driving brings together people with very diverse backgrounds (perception, planning, controls, hardware, safety, rideshare product, etc), very diverse incentives (established automakers vs start-up founders vs VC investors), and throws them in a pot with a huge amount of money an…

Well, I think that they wouldn't be able to solve the tech problem even if they completely solved any and all team problems, so as far as the end users are concerned it doesn't really matter much whether they can solve the team problem. I think that full self driving almost certainly requires artificial general intelligence, and I don't think humanity is anywhere close to creating that, so all current self-driving car projects will end in failure.

I wonder to what extent the leaders of these self-driving car projects understand that their efforts to create the technology have almost no chance of success. How many of them understand this but carry on due to either wild optimism, or to just make money, or on the principle of "it's not up to me to decide whether to try, someone else is paying me to try"?

The degree to which self-driving car hype seized even the minds of many otherwise smart people in the last decade has been strange for me to see.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#109
the best way to 'solve' self driving is just to build new cities entirely with new transportation infrastructure specifically built for self driving vehicles to be on roads, and in parking spots. not for 'human driven vehicles'. just to make things simpler , and clear, the cars themselves should not even have steering wheels.

any vehicles that are outside of the city, can be driven onto a self driving wheeled platform kind of thing, and that platform ( a self driving cart ) will drive those vehicles around as needed .

that's actually SIMPLER. than 'solving' self driving in reality. Musk's updates will not solve self driving . they will abdicate driving responsibilty, for every edge case in which it fails, which , ultimately, requires the driver to supervise the car , at least , while in complex city environments. which means, ultimately, you cannot have fully robot taxis.

if you cannot have robot taxis, you can call 'self driving' whatever you want. but it's not effectively 'self driving' for the purpose of mega profit silicon valley ponzi-nomics.

if you want mega profit, let alone, real world self driving solved. just start building the entire infrastructure from scratch to ensure the system as a whole works.

right now, you're trying to solve 'self driving' for the individual vehicle as if it will be as 'smart' as a human by mimicing human driving styles with complex hardware and software.

not gonna happen. at best you get mimicry of the highest order. still doesn't work. cannot mimic persistent capacity to deal with novel situation.

'self driving' is effectively non-deliverable, until at least the next AI revolution in hardware, which is still 15-20 years away from being commercialized as a suite of different asic chips are built out and then taught to communicate with one another by some hyper sophisticated universal buss system.

Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving

#110

All of the big players in self-driving have shown that while they can try to solve the tech problem, nobody can solve the team problem. Self-driving brings together people with very diverse backgrounds (perception, planning, controls, hardware, safety, rideshare product, etc), very diverse incentives (established automakers vs start-up founders vs VC investors), and throws them in a pot with a huge amount of money an…

This seems like a cause and effect confusion.

Because no one can solve the tech problem, no one wants to stick around for the point where the failure is obvious.

Especially, for a while, self-driving cars have been at the level that impressive demos are possible but actual deployment isn't. So a fine career move is sticking around for long enough to create a demo and then leaving and blaming the failure on your successor.

Reason the tech can't deployed is that while 99% of driving problems involve just a complex, adaptive system, the 1% or .01% remaining involve "understanding what's happening", a far higher bar, one that requires a system well beyond what exists today.

Post reply on HN