Live data from Hacker News

The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

technologyreview.com

101–110 of 227 posts

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#101
Remember that US State Department members were warning of risky coronavirus research at the lab in Wuhan years before this pandemic happened.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin...

That isn't proof of anything but all of this makes for interesting reading.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#102
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think everyone knows that #4 is a plausible theory. But it's frustrating to see how the media played it as a conspiracy theory, which just discredits the media. Kind of like how they said that masks aren't helpful at first, with the ulterior (but noble) intention of preserving the mask supply for healthcare workers. It just reinforces the idea that misinformation is fine as long as it gets people to behave the "rig…

The media didn't treat #4 as a conspiracy theory. If you mean Tom Cotton's claims, he first implied it was intentional (later walked it back). He also was claiming it was a biological weapons lab. That's not what #4 is. It's always been accepted that #4 was possible.

Here's an example that was topping Google News the other day.

https://www.businessinsider.com/former-cdc-director-redfield...

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#103

So, to summarize-the-summary: there are four possible theories: 1. Direct-jump from bat population 2. Started in bats, came to humans through intermediate animal 3. Came from frozen food outside of China 4. Lab accident. I used to think the lab accident theory was crazy, because it sounds like a science fiction movie. Not an impossible theory, just a crazy one. But according to this article, despite a year of investi…

A never before seen coronavirus was found just miles away from one of only two BSL-4 laboratories in all of China, which also happens to publish gain of function research on coronaviruses. I find it amusing that anyone can claim a lab accident origin is “crazy”.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#104
post #79

I was called a conspiracy theorist on Reddit last year for saying that this likely came from the lab in Wuhan. Now it's a possibility? It's getting incredibly frustrating to go online and be constantly attacked for having common sense views.

"possible" does not imply "likely". It was always a possibility, the only thing we know with relative certainty is that it originated from near Wuhan and that the virus is not engineered. But it could have been lab grown. The problem is the lack of concrete evidence for this thesis.

I'd say that it's very likely that you did not present any concrete evidence for the lab theory last year, neither do you have any now. So as far as I'm concerned you're still in conspiracy theory territory.

Here is the real problem, though: It's not really a common sense view. The only reasonable common sense view is to remain agnostic in such matters until enough evidence is discovered. If you have thousands of conspiracy theorists throwing around thousands of different claims around about something, then surely one or two may in hindsight turn out to be right. That doesn't mean they presented a reasonable view or aren't conspiracy theorists.

Just to make this clear, I'm not talking about you personally, of course. Maybe you argued very well and convincingly and presented some great evidence a year ago. But the fallacious thought pattern is a huge problem in online discussions. Sometimes you don't even need to consider thousands of conspiracy theorists, some people are so prolific online that they make a lot of different claims about a lot of of different topics, and then, when they happen to be right in hindsight once, feel confirmed.

On a side note (not related to the above post at all), another issue in online debates I've grown to really hate is that many people online have become extremely dismissive towards experts and come up with extremely obvious counter-arguments as if the experts hadn't considered them. In every single case they have, of course. It's crazy how much stupidity some people tend to attribute to experts but not to themselves.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#105

Remember that US State Department members were warning of risky coronavirus research at the lab in Wuhan years before this pandemic happened. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin... That isn't proof of anything but all of this makes for interesting reading.

Josh Rogin has been misrepesenting these diplomatic cables for a year now. If you read the actual cables (which Rogin refused to publish when he wrote his first story - they only came out later due to a FOIA request), they did not warn that the lab was unsafe. The cables stated said that the lab did not yet have enough technicians to run at full capacity. As of the time of writing of the cables, the lab had not yet opened.

The cables were simply arguing that the US should continue to fund its training program for the lab's staff (they're trained at the premiere US high-biocontainment laboratory, in Galveston, Texas). The cables did not point to any safety problems with the lab. The people who visited the lab and wrote the cables wouldn't have known how to identify safety problems anyways - they were just diplomats. They simply stated that the US training program was important and to emphasize that, they stated that the not-yet-opened lab did not yet have enough technicians.

Rogin has been trying to spin this into some sort of dire warning, but that's simply a willful misreading of the cables.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#106

So, to summarize-the-summary: there are four possible theories: 1. Direct-jump from bat population 2. Started in bats, came to humans through intermediate animal 3. Came from frozen food outside of China 4. Lab accident. I used to think the lab accident theory was crazy, because it sounds like a science fiction movie. Not an impossible theory, just a crazy one. But according to this article, despite a year of investi…

> I used to think the lab accident theory was crazy Accidents happen. Even if it was a lab accident, it's not a reason to be outraged with the Chinese government. I think in parallel to searching for the origin, they should also look into the reports that Chinese government tried to hid it under the carpet and only admitting that it couldn't control it after it was already spread all over the world. That's the real c…

The problem is that this is proof that the slippery slope of social media censorship already has a causality. Twitter banned ZeroHedge, an irreverent but very well known financial website, for months just for pushing this theory. Yesterday’s crazy conspiracy theories become today’s plausibilities.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/twitter-bans-zero-hedge-coronav...

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I used to think the lab accident theory was crazy Accidents happen. Even if it was a lab accident, it's not a reason to be outraged with the Chinese government. I think in parallel to searching for the origin, they should also look into the reports that Chinese government tried to hid it under the carpet and only admitting that it couldn't control it after it was already spread all over the world. That's the real c…

The problem is that this is proof that the slippery slope of social media censorship already has a causality. Twitter banned ZeroHedge, an irreverent but very well known financial website, for months just for pushing this theory. Yesterday’s crazy conspiracy theories become today’s plausibilities. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/twitter-bans-zero-hedge-coronav...

ZH singled out an individual and made statements that could subject him to harassment. That's not merely a case of having the wrong suspicions about globally significant events.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I used to think the lab accident theory was crazy Accidents happen. Even if it was a lab accident, it's not a reason to be outraged with the Chinese government. I think in parallel to searching for the origin, they should also look into the reports that Chinese government tried to hid it under the carpet and only admitting that it couldn't control it after it was already spread all over the world. That's the real c…

The problem is that this is proof that the slippery slope of social media censorship already has a causality. Twitter banned ZeroHedge, an irreverent but very well known financial website, for months just for pushing this theory. Yesterday’s crazy conspiracy theories become today’s plausibilities. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/twitter-bans-zero-hedge-coronav...

To be fair, although we are a bit better here in west, we are still far from perfect. Letting the POTUS call it China virus, is despicable.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#109

So, to summarize-the-summary: there are four possible theories: 1. Direct-jump from bat population 2. Started in bats, came to humans through intermediate animal 3. Came from frozen food outside of China 4. Lab accident. I used to think the lab accident theory was crazy, because it sounds like a science fiction movie. Not an impossible theory, just a crazy one. But according to this article, despite a year of investi…

A never before seen coronavirus was found just miles away from one of only two BSL-4 laboratories in all of China, which also happens to publish gain of function research on coronaviruses. I find it amusing that anyone can claim a lab accident origin is “crazy”.

For some reason so many people are hung up on “lab accident” implying that it was a bioweapon made by China. And honestly the biggest reason why this theory is rejected is because Trump called it the China Virus, and lots of people have this “Trump said a thing, so I must be in direct opposition to it” reflex, creating a mental block on the possibility of China because responsible at some level.

Re: The WHO-China search for the origins of the coronavirus

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that this is proof that the slippery slope of social media censorship already has a causality. Twitter banned ZeroHedge, an irreverent but very well known financial website, for months just for pushing this theory. Yesterday’s crazy conspiracy theories become today’s plausibilities. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/twitter-bans-zero-hedge-coronav...

To be fair, although we are a bit better here in west, we are still far from perfect. Letting the POTUS call it China virus, is despicable.

Let’s stay on topic. The truth is that many people were reluctant to even consider the lab theory because it might look anti-Chinese at a time when Trump was blatantly attacking them and blaming them for the virus with no evidence. The point is that politics led to censorship that made it difficult to consider all possibilities.
Post reply on HN