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Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

nature.com

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Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#101

Post by nickysielicki »

frenchy wrote: post #51
nickysielicki wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemi…

> The scientists told us that a vaccine wouldn't be ready for years, it was actually ready in months I remember the messaging at the beginning of last year being to expect at least 18 months, possibly much longer. For most people, 18 months will be about accurate, for a few people, they will have beat the estimate, but that's not surprising - it's an estimate. It's a hell of a lot more accurate than a couple months.…

> I remember the messaging at the beginning of last year being to expect at least 18 months, possibly much longer.

I remember messaging about timelines of several years. The fact that science eventually arrived at a consistent and accurate message doesn't mean that there wasn't consensus around the wrong opinions when it was most critical.

> You just explained above that these institutions are not powerful, and that they have limititations. Which one of these are true?

Nowhere did I claim they are not powerful, I simply claimed that they made bad decisions.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#102

Post by sho_hn »

cogman10 wrote: post #68
dukeofdoom wrote: post #59

I think the biggest win will be disinfecting shopping cart handles. A few years before, I even have posts about it, how it didn't make sense that these where not disinfected during Flu season. I thought it was disgusting actually since people are handling food, between touching these handles. We will probably get some innovation in face masks too. For anyone in the construction/renovation industry having access to be…

I think facemasks are going to be the biggest change to daily life that I don't see going away. 2020 had a nearly non-existent flu season and that is likely related to all the COVID restrictions (I think facemasks being a key). If I were to guess, I think people wearing facemasks when they are sick (or even just through flu season) is going to be a lot more common and socially acceptable from now on. Hopefully that w…

I was living in South Korea 2015-2019, where use of face masks was already a normal fact of life seasonally (air pollution) and habitual when experiencing cold symptoms. It's not amazing, but also not a big deal. I did wonder about the trash/recycling factor.

Frankly - living as an immigrant in a very looks/appearance-conscious society, it had its practical perks. Quick late-day dash to the shop without having a shave? Masks takes care of that ...

OTOH, I enjoy how the lockdowns have been a sobering reset button to everyone's vanity and fashion proclivities, too. Hair styling fast fashion cycles seem like very silly preoccupations nowadays.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#103

Post by a-dub »

s_dev wrote: post #75
a-dub wrote: post #64

virus spread is O(n^2) vaccination is O(n) if you want to beat the virus, seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? common cold with the covid-19 spike protein?

>seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? A weaker varient of a disease often just is the vaccine. As for letting her rip? I'd imagine the concern is future mutations that the vaccine can't surpress with it bouncing between people.

yes but we are unable to vaccinate fast enough.

virus is n^2, vaccine is n

you cannot beat exponential growth with linear growth

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#104

Post by Animats »

"Christie Aschwanden is a science journalist in Cedaredge, Colorado." This is not by an epidemiologist.

It looks like Israel will be the first country to hit a very high vaccination level. 55.4 percent of Israelis have received the first dose of the coronavirus vaccine. Over 70% of old people. The government is pushing hard on this. Pfizer says they're seeing 97% vaccine effectiveness at preventing illness.

Israel cut a deal with Pfizer to get priority on vaccine shipments in exchange for sending extensive data on how it is working back to Pfizer.[1] So Israel has more than enough vaccine for their population. Already, Israel's coronavirus death rate is down to 0.15 deaths/day/100K people. It was 0.72 back in January.

So watch Israel to see what happens when the vaccination percentage gets to a high level.

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/3aae4345-46cc-4636-a3f9-a93a6762f...

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#105

Post by reedjosh »

a-dub wrote: post #80
reedjosh wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would prefer not to consent to a possibly dangerous 'weaker' version of COVID. This idea would completely take choice away and experiment on the human populace.

it's a last resort, it's true... but with variants mutating, i think we have to ask ourselves how much of a existential threat does this thing pose to the species. moreover, what's the difference if vaccines become mandatory anyhow? all the vaccines do is expose humans to the spike protein... if anything, hacking the virus seems safer than hacking the human body to produce the spike protein. i suppose it's hard to st…

> i think we have to ask ourselves how much of a existential threat does this thing pose to the species.

I'd say not as great a threat as setting the dangerous precedent of experimenting on an unwitting populace.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#106

Post by pelasaco »

mdocherty wrote: post #54
nickysielicki wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemi…

I don't really wanna be part of a society that sacrifices the old and unfit at the expense of the whatever point you are trying to make. 500,000 COVID deaths across the country shouldn't be taken lightly. I am surprised if you are taking all "scientists" as a collective group that you are focusing on early attempts to create models rather than the delivery of a vaccine (by scientists) and overall improvement of disea…

just playing the devil's advocate. I don't support as well the idea of sacrificing the old and unfit and neither believe that "only the strong should survive", but isn't the old and unfit from today responsible for the status-quo and all the bad decisions that we took regarding research, environment and health in the last 30 years?

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#107

Post by cogman10 »

therealjumbo wrote: post #91
cogman10 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think facemasks are going to be the biggest change to daily life that I don't see going away. 2020 had a nearly non-existent flu season and that is likely related to all the COVID restrictions (I think facemasks being a key). If I were to guess, I think people wearing facemasks when they are sick (or even just through flu season) is going to be a lot more common and socially acceptable from now on. Hopefully that w…

How are masks 99% effective against the seasonal flu, but not nearly as effective against COVID-19?

Easy, it takes less exposure to COVID to get you ill. Meaning, it's a more infectious disease.

And masks aren't ineffective against COVID-19. Everyone wearing a mask does a pretty good job at preventing the spread of disease. However, there are a lot of people that aren't as strict about following mask rules and guidelines.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#108

Post by hdyideudxuedhb »

mschuster91 wrote: post #88
ping_pong wrote: post #18

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

> The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world in the last year. There is a secondary main goal, one that the world should have learned after SARS v1, MERS, or the swine flu: get rid of the conditions that infectious agents need to spread . There's a reason that pandemic events have exploded over the last two decad…

You would have been a better health minister than any working for any government.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#109

Post by e79 »

This is a lot less depressing when you consider that vaccines have shown astounding results so far at preventing disease. COVID is a lot less scary if you’re extremely unlikely to get very sick from it. This article touches on that a bit, but it’s buried until the end.

There’s a lot of optimism to be had here, I think. Let’s not let perfect be the enemy of good — maybe we can’t eradicate COVID, but we can make it a lot more tolerable to share this planet with it.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#110

Post by cogman10 »

Kiro wrote: post #93
cogman10 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think facemasks are going to be the biggest change to daily life that I don't see going away. 2020 had a nearly non-existent flu season and that is likely related to all the COVID restrictions (I think facemasks being a key). If I were to guess, I think people wearing facemasks when they are sick (or even just through flu season) is going to be a lot more common and socially acceptable from now on. Hopefully that w…

In Sweden we're also seeing very low flu numbers for 2020-2021 but we have almost non-existent mask usage so I wouldn't attribute it to masks alone. I think social distancing plays a big part.

I mean, that could also just be a fact that worldwide everyone is masking up. One nation not participating doesn't matter as much because everyone else is. I'm guessing you've got far fewer visitors to Sweden due to all the travel restrictions.
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