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Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

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Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#101
post #9
post #3

> many crypto investors to believe the latest bull run is different "This time it's different" isn't an argument I find compelling for why something that is known to have bubbles and manipulation isn't in a bubble.

For 12 years, just bubbles? First it was over 1 cent, then over $1, over $1000, now over $50k.... when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M? (which most models indicate as a plausible target price in 10 years) Let me give you my favorite quote, pulled from another HNer comment: "I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a b…

> when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M?

Personally I think Bitcoin has at least two bubbles left before it pops permanently. So $1M price could be achievable.

The real question is what happens when it does reach a ceiling. At some point there's not going to much more potential interest for Bitcoin, and what then? Are people gonna start moving their pension funds to Bitcoin? I think the governments will crack hard down on that, because you really want investments in building the economy, not in a pure investment/gambling scheme.

If most people start thinking there's no one else interested in buying their Bitcoin down the line, it'll crash hard, and the crash will likely be permanent. Because there's no real value behind Bitcoin. The money you invested is already spent by someone on something else.

The reason why it's interesting that Bitcoin keeps having bubbles is that there's not much reason to think that will stop. Yeah, the value keeps growing over longer time periods, but eventually a bubble will be so large that it'll seriously disrupt the economy, and that's when you'll start to see governments and peoples attitudes change.

> I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a bigger valuation than all of the Y Combinator companies COMBINED, yet people still think it is unstable and has no future.

The problem is that the valuation is more imaginary than the valuation of any company except for those that are just Ponzi-schemes.

Most money put into Bitcoin has been cashed out or used for mining expenses. If everyone tried to cash out, the price would very quickly race back down to zero. If the same happened with a stocks in a corporation, at some price level someone would just buy up a controlling stake of the shares and liquidate all the assets for a profit.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#102
I only keep half an eye on bitcoin, so I'm a bit out of the loop.

Was there some thing (or things) that happend in October/November that started the most recent growth in price? It seems to have bounced around $5-10k for over a year and then in early october just started to take off and is now 4-5x that and not showing any signs of stopping. I heard about the Tesla thing, but that was very recent. What did I miss?

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#103
post #73

Bitcoin itself has its value, but the current price surge is a bubble, it can be easily explained why the growth is exponential: 1. BTC price increases 4. There is media attention about the price raise 5. More people buy BTC, because FOMO 6. Back to point 1, but now a bigger group This loop is a pump, increasing the price as long as the loop isn't broken. The same pump can reverse, very quickly. Once the loop is pump…

> The fact that there is a limited supply will ensure the prices keeps raising, because nobody can "make more bitcoin"..

This is a common claim, but nothing is ensured here.

Almost everything else we put a value to has a more real underlying value that's also growing. Gold has uses in technology, with stocks most companies have real assets that could be sold off, even with art I think most people would be willing to buy an art-piece for the right price. The value of a Monet for me might be a tiny fraction of its valuation, but it's there. But nobody has any underlying interest in a Bitcoin. Its value as a currency for paying for products and services seems to be diminishing as well.

You can't make more Bitcoin, but you can easily make more cryptocurrencies, all with the same limited supply (which according to some people means the value MUST increase). And they're all equally interesting. The one exception with Bitcoin is that it was first. You could say it has a tiny bit of underlying historical value.

To me, I think it implies that it's inevitable that Bitcoin will have a crash that's very deep and very long lasting. It's impossible to predict when though. In the very long term it'll probably increase due to hits historical value. But by that point I doubt it'll significantly outperform other investments.

I also think there's a very high likelihood that many governments will regulate cryptocurrency exchanges to death at some point. A rally against Bitcoin specifically can easily be justified as part of the fight against climate change, since it wastes so much energy.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin as the gateway to Ethereum and the possibilities opened up by smart contacts such as the currently embryonic DeFi market. Paradigm shift isn't too strong a terminology.

While ETH is cool technology, I haven't seen it impact my personal life in any way yet. That might just be my sheltered life though.

Even if you said Bitcoin hasn't affected your personal life you'd be in a vast majority, and Bitcoin has got a few years on Ethereum.

It really is nascent; embryonic.

Personally, I think it's future-defining technology that's being created, but it's a decade at least from reaching common acceptance and use. Cultural change is long and slow, it's one of those things that doesn't change until the status quo generations die off and are replaced, and there's a good couple of generations that don't even know of / care about / understand bitcoin nevermind smart contracts and decentralised finance. I don't understand the absolute fundamentals, but I understand the implications.

Long term change, generationally slow migration.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#105
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For 12 years, just bubbles? First it was over 1 cent, then over $1, over $1000, now over $50k.... when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M? (which most models indicate as a plausible target price in 10 years) Let me give you my favorite quote, pulled from another HNer comment: "I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a b…

All the Y Combinator companies combined have created value. What has Bitcoin created? I struggle to come up with an answer which isn't overwhelmingly just a way to fund illicit activities, for which sure there's always been a market, but it's a far cry of it's origins. Who actually uses bitcoin for transactions today other than extortionists hackers and drug dealers? Everyone who owns is just planning to HODL and hop…

Bitcoin has pioneered a new asset class that can be transferred over the Internet and is not dependent on a central authority.

I don't own any cryptocurrency and can't put a dollar valuation on such an achievement, but it's certainly not an everyday thing.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#106

So does it make sense to put in some money that I’m okay with losing now or have I missed it?

Put in some money you'd use for Netflix, Amazon prime and a few other extras you can happily do without. Mark the amount you paid and its BTC value on the calendar and completely forget about it for one year until some out of the loop person (i.e. uncle at Thanksgiving) asks you if it's a good time to put some money into it.

Put Netflix money in per month. Dollar cost averaging.

(Not a financial planner, funny invest anything you're not willing to lose, do your own research, etc.)

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#107

I only keep half an eye on bitcoin, so I'm a bit out of the loop. Was there some thing (or things) that happend in October/November that started the most recent growth in price? It seems to have bounced around $5-10k for over a year and then in early october just started to take off and is now 4-5x that and not showing any signs of stopping. I heard about the Tesla thing, but that was very recent. What did I miss?

There was halving event last spring, when the Bitcoin supply was cut in half, which happens every 4 years. Historically, Bitcoin price has been following the stock-to-flow model https://digitalik.net/btc/

In the fall, Paypal adopted Bitcoin in their payment network.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#108
post #107

I only keep half an eye on bitcoin, so I'm a bit out of the loop. Was there some thing (or things) that happend in October/November that started the most recent growth in price? It seems to have bounced around $5-10k for over a year and then in early october just started to take off and is now 4-5x that and not showing any signs of stopping. I heard about the Tesla thing, but that was very recent. What did I miss?

There was halving event last spring, when the Bitcoin supply was cut in half, which happens every 4 years. Historically, Bitcoin price has been following the stock-to-flow model https://digitalik.net/btc/ In the fall, Paypal adopted Bitcoin in their payment network.

Thanks, I'd missed the PayPal news.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? Bitcoin's excitement comes entirely from its value in fiat, as opposed to regular usage in daily life.

This. Cryptocurrencies in general seem to have potential for being used in day-to-day transactions in the future, but Bitcoin itself mostly seem to be used to store value. The planned limit on the total amount of Bitcoin in circulation, transaction fees and long transaction times seem to be quite a blocker for using it to buy a cup of coffee.

Money has to be first established as a store of value, before it can be used as a medium of exchange. As Bitcoin finds a more stable price point, it will become more interesting as a medium of exchange and an unit of account.

Re: Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto

#110
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, 100% with you here. I actually tremendously enjoy hearing a well constructed negative argument against Bitcoin/Crypto that presents a perspective I haven't heard a 100 times before and/or hasn't been debunked in depth. These are actually necessary given how new and different the whole shebang is. But that hasn't happened in a rather long time on HN, or if it has, it's buried 10 level of indent deep amongst HN r…

> I actually tremendously enjoy hearing a well constructed negative argument against Bitcoin/Crypto that presents a perspective I haven't heard a 100 times before and/or hasn't been debunked in depth. Me too! /r/Buttcoin is a nice place for that, but you must already know (as your nick looks familiar to me) My personal favorite well constructed new negative argument: like India and Nigeria, governments will try to ba…

> Counter argument: politicians (and the 1%) need to protect against inflation/taxations, so they may not all be in favor, and will leak the plan. It will cause a huge Streisand effect, as "there is no such thing as negative publicity": random Joes will buy crypto, making the plan politically undefensible.

Uh, what? This makes zero sense. There is absolutely such a thing as negative publicity, especially if major governments threaten to effectively wipe out the value of Bitcoin.

You could just as easily see a large fraction of the holders of Bitcoin try to cash out, to put into more safe investments while the situation stabilizes. This will probably create a crash, as Bitcoin is so prone to. More people will cash out. This will probably increase support for regulating or banning crypto exchanges. Some will already have cashed out, they're happy. Some of the ones that haven't will direct their anger against Bitcoin and support regulations. Some of the ones still holding will try to fight it, but they'll be in the minority. Most people who never invested will probably support bans ("I don't want to risk unwittingly getting hit by a crash like that in the future"). You'll probably have lots of emotional stories about grandpa losing all his savings in the media. I mean, we've seen this story over and over before in the stock markets. Someone figures out "get-rich-quick" schemes, they crash, people demand regulation. What makes anyone think that it'll be any different with cryptocurrencies once they become big enough?

I think it'd be absolutely reasonable to require exchanges to guarantee that there's X% of reserves behind any cryptocurrency it trades. That'll probably kill Bitcoin, since you'd probably want to build such a requirement into the implementation of the currency. And it'll probably put a big damper on the growth of the conforming cryptocurrencies.

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