> many crypto investors to believe the latest bull run is different "This time it's different" isn't an argument I find compelling for why something that is known to have bubbles and manipulation isn't in a bubble.
For 12 years, just bubbles? First it was over 1 cent, then over $1, over $1000, now over $50k.... when will you consider the possibility you may have been wrong? At $100k? At $1M? (which most models indicate as a plausible target price in 10 years) Let me give you my favorite quote, pulled from another HNer comment: "I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a b…
Personally I think Bitcoin has at least two bubbles left before it pops permanently. So $1M price could be achievable.
The real question is what happens when it does reach a ceiling. At some point there's not going to much more potential interest for Bitcoin, and what then? Are people gonna start moving their pension funds to Bitcoin? I think the governments will crack hard down on that, because you really want investments in building the economy, not in a pure investment/gambling scheme.
If most people start thinking there's no one else interested in buying their Bitcoin down the line, it'll crash hard, and the crash will likely be permanent. Because there's no real value behind Bitcoin. The money you invested is already spent by someone on something else.
The reason why it's interesting that Bitcoin keeps having bubbles is that there's not much reason to think that will stop. Yeah, the value keeps growing over longer time periods, but eventually a bubble will be so large that it'll seriously disrupt the economy, and that's when you'll start to see governments and peoples attitudes change.
> I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin here because even without any venture backing, it achieved a bigger valuation than all of the Y Combinator companies COMBINED, yet people still think it is unstable and has no future.
The problem is that the valuation is more imaginary than the valuation of any company except for those that are just Ponzi-schemes.
Most money put into Bitcoin has been cashed out or used for mining expenses. If everyone tried to cash out, the price would very quickly race back down to zero. If the same happened with a stocks in a corporation, at some price level someone would just buy up a controlling stake of the shares and liquidate all the assets for a profit.