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Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

ercot.com

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Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#101

Post by maxerickson »

dehrmann wrote: post #84
bloaf wrote: post #31

Natural gas prices have been absolutely wild the past few days. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/weekly-natural-gas-prices-so... If you're not used to their bizarre units of volume the key takaway is this: Quantities of gas that usually sell for ~ $3 were selling for over $300 on Friday/Saturday.

How isolated are different natural gas networks in the US?

Not a direct answer, but you can adjust the active layers on https://www.eia.gov/state/maps.php to show pipelines. It's pretty well interconnected.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#102

Post by mlyle »

ogre_codes wrote: post #80
mlyle wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries solve a different problem. They can smooth over daily shortfalls, but aren't so great when you have a week-long aberration. To fix that, you need significant overprovisioning or alternate means of generation. That is, if you depend upon wind and wind is screwed up for a week... batteries aren't going to let you stretch limited solar all night long.

> To fix that, you need significant overprovisioning or alternate means of generation. They have alternate means of generation... natural gas. There is a big problem with wells shutting down due to the same extremes which shut down wind. Which has caused shortages of natural gas which is doubly problematic because it's also used extensively for heating. What do you do when your backup power is vulnerable to the same…

> It is arguably a fantastic example of where nuclear power excels. Particularly if you had a nuclear plant which ran well below capacity most of the time and ramped up when we have extreme needs.

Right now that's awful, because most of the cost of nuclear plants is the capital costs. Paying a bunch of depreciation on something you don't use 24/7 is dubious.

Also nuclear tends not to ramp very quickly.

I'm pro-nuclear, but for nighttime base load + power-to-gas and filling other storage in the day.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#103

Post by mlyle »

RyanPringnitz wrote: post #100
mlyle wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries solve a different problem. They can smooth over daily shortfalls, but aren't so great when you have a week-long aberration. To fix that, you need significant overprovisioning or alternate means of generation. That is, if you depend upon wind and wind is screwed up for a week... batteries aren't going to let you stretch limited solar all night long.

Hydro storage is gaining popularity. During the day, with over-provisioned daytime production, they pump water to higher elevation ponds. At night they let it flow down to the lower elevation ponds. These could still freeze and stop becoming viable sources of energy, but they are a non-lithium source for energy storage. If they could be kept warm enough to flow in these conditions, they could provide generous storage…

Yup, but most pumped hydro is relatively short term power storage, too.

You really want something like power->gas->power to help fill in on the worst couple weeks per year.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#104

Post by tzs »

shiftpgdn wrote: post #88
phonebanshee wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those prices are far below normal prices. Normal is 28-50 cents in places like San Diego ( https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/energy-green/s... ).

In Texas griddy exposes you to real time spot pricing. I was frequently getting paid to use electricity at night due to excess generation by wind. As an electric car owner this was fantastic as I frequently got paid to recharge my car. My average delivered rate before this week was 7c/kwh all in.

Does anyone there get a battery system, like a Tesla Powerwall, to save up negative priced night electricity to use in the daytime?

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#106

Post by ip26 »

ameetgaitonde wrote: post #70
sjg007 wrote: post #55

Weird.. you'd think with the AC demand in the summer they'd have enough capacity for winter..

I think the problem is that homes are also designed to cool, efficiently, which is why many a/c and heater units are in the attic with vents in the ceiling. This means that they tend to heat homes more inefficiently than in places that are used to very cold weather.

Attic equipment is mainly for low install costs. Easy to run the ducts. It's terribly inefficient.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#107

Post by Aloha »

don-code wrote: post #10

Some time ago, I worked for a defunct energy company that provided demand-side relief in exactly this scenario - when total system load outstrips total system capacity, we'd begin taking actions on behalf of end users, not the utility. Lights would turn off, generators would spin up, fridge temperatures would be raised. ERCOT (Texas) is an interesting case in that it can't import power from other states as easily - i…

ERCOT does have several HVDC links, which when I checked a couple hours ago were exporting power. Also, I believe that with modern technology HVDC is more efficient than synchronous AC connections (largely because of higher voltage interconnects)

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#108

Post by shiftpgdn »

pilom wrote: post #99
shiftpgdn wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My house normally uses 70kwh/day. We have an electric heater and with this cold weather we were on track to use 150-200kwh day. At $5/kwh for 5 days of 200kwh due to the cold puts me at $5,000.

Holy cow! How in the world do you use that much? My old house in Colorado would use ~350kwh/month. Swap out that electric heater for a heat pump asap!

Big house (3700sqft or so), tall ceilings, four people working/schooling from home and an electric car as the primary family car. In 2019 I literally did not turn the heater on a single time, I don't think the investment in a heat pump would be worth it.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#109

Post by brundolf »

eckza wrote: post #81

It's curious that the current tide of public opinion reckons that we're all going to be in EVs in 10-15 years, when the grid nearly collapses under the weight of everybody plugging in a heater and turning on Netflix at the same time.

It's not that the capacity can't be mustered, it's that it can't be mustered overnight.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#110

Post by unreal6 »

ogre_codes wrote: post #80
mlyle wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries solve a different problem. They can smooth over daily shortfalls, but aren't so great when you have a week-long aberration. To fix that, you need significant overprovisioning or alternate means of generation. That is, if you depend upon wind and wind is screwed up for a week... batteries aren't going to let you stretch limited solar all night long.

> To fix that, you need significant overprovisioning or alternate means of generation. They have alternate means of generation... natural gas. There is a big problem with wells shutting down due to the same extremes which shut down wind. Which has caused shortages of natural gas which is doubly problematic because it's also used extensively for heating. What do you do when your backup power is vulnerable to the same…

Do such nuclear power plants exist? I was under the impression that they provided consistent, baseline levels of power in most circumstances.
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