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UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

theguardian.com

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Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#101

Post by thu2111 »

me_me_me wrote: post #99
thu2111 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Die Zeit: "In the dispute over the delivery delay of the AstraZeneca vaccine, the EU Commission is currently making the best advertisement for Brexit: It is acting slowly, bureaucratically, and protectionist. And if something goes wrong, it’s everyone else’s fault. This is how many Britons see the EU, and so the prejudices were confirmed at the beginning of the week" https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-01/astraz…

What are you even trying to say though? I command you for putting effort to writing a post. But you probably have no idea of british politics beyond headlines for newspapers. Uk dealing with covid was a circus on fire. Here [0] UK has highest death per capita behind Belgium (super high pop density) and Slovenia (they had also excelent ideas on dealing with covid - have slovenian friend). Johnsons gov did multiple 180…

I think I understand British politics pretty well, being British.

Here [0] UK has highest death per capita behind Belgium

No, it has one of the highest numbers of "people who died within 28 days of a positive test" which isn't the same thing. COVID is highly infectious but not very deadly, so with this definition the more you test the more such events can be found. This problem becomes obvious when you look at excess death stats and discover more people have died of COVID than the overall increase in deaths.

The UK does more than double the amount of testing Belgium has done [1]. This will automatically lead it to reporting more deaths in proximity to a positive test.

Johnsons gov did multiple 180 when dealing with covid, recently promised schools will stay absolutely open, only to closed them after 1 day that they were open

Like almost everywhere except Sweden the UK has a problem with any attempt to reopen being sunk by supposedly 'expert' scientists who seem to consider lockdowns to be free. Johnson is trapped by the public's expectation that scientists know what they're doing, which in this case they don't. Constant see-sawing, announcing garbage numbers and other problems have been seen in many countries, not just the UK. Really only Sweden has managed to avoid this, thanks to Anders Tegnell who has been both (a) consistent and (b) correct. It'd be great if the UK had Tegnell too, but no such luck.

I am not going to change you mind anyhow so have a great day living in your political thriller.

You could change my mind if you raised points I hadn't previously considered months ago, or weren't claiming things that are obviously false about how the UK and Brexit are currently being reported.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#102

Post by bluthru »

websites222 wrote: post #26
1experience wrote: post #15

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

Europe yes. US, no. The US is in an amazing position in terms of demography and growth. Aging population, but not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island. The US borders a rising economy with perfect demographics for growth (Mexico). The US is the least involved country in global trade. The US is increasingly disinterested in being the world police, so that capability can be deployed to protect economic interes…

An economic system simply can't be based around population growth. We're already living unsustainably (with respect to carbon) and population growth works against that. Immigration to keep borrowing money is postponing the inevitable.

Encouraging brain drain and people to flee their developing nations works against world stability, competition, prosperity, and quality of life.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#103

Post by WalterSear »

GordonS wrote: post #46
websites222 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe yes. US, no. The US is in an amazing position in terms of demography and growth. Aging population, but not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island. The US borders a rising economy with perfect demographics for growth (Mexico). The US is the least involved country in global trade. The US is increasingly disinterested in being the world police, so that capability can be deployed to protect economic interes…

> not immigrant averse like Japan and not an island As the past 4 years have demonstrated, there is a very large segment of the US population is very much against immigration, and would happily turn the country into an "island" by building walls around the land borders.

Large in number, yes, but not in proportion to the total population.

Moreover, mostly in the places where productivity is not happening. Their growing irrelevance and sociocultural aversion to change are primary reasons for their vocality.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#104

Post by WalterSear »

ardy42 wrote: post #66
aaomidi wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good thing is that segment of population is: 1. Dying out. 2. Not in places immigrants want to immigrate to.

> 2. Not in places immigrants want to immigrate to. There's reason to doubt that. A lot of Trump's support was rural, and a lot of immigrants are farm laborers.

Farm laborers perform an essential role, but it isn't one that is driving US economy.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#105

Post by gher-shyu3i »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #17

If chartered banks charge for ... holding cash ... don't people next create a new industry of unchartered financial institutions to hold money without charging so much? Like, safe deposit? Or insurance? This seems like an ivory tower exercise that has not yet met the messy realities of the world.

> This seems like an ivory tower exercise that has not yet met the messy realities of the world.

Honestly, that's how the economy is run today, it's one big ivory tower exercise. It's shameful, toying with people's lives that way, exploiting them, and then we cry about why everything is messed up.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#106

Post by moltar »

1experience wrote: post #15

Can anyone counter my impression that we are witnessing in the Western world the exact same course of events that happened in Japan in the 1990s? (low growth, high debt, ageing population, low interest rates, rising of average P/E ratios). Am I wrong to expect that corporate valuations in Europe and the U.S. will not appreciate in the coming decades as they have in past decades? Edit: Yes, the U.S. and Europe are ind…

Japan was somewhat forced into the predicament. See the works of Richard Werner.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#107

Post by codebolt »

RobertoG wrote: post #44
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a negative interest rate for banks to keep their money with a central bank. It is supposed to discourage banks from hoarding money and stimulate the economy by giving out more loans. Like all things economic there are debates about if it works or not. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/do-negative-interest-rates-w...

It's obvious that it doesn't work. In order banks be able to lend money it's necessary the existence of business and households that want to spend money instead of saving. What we are seeing, is the result of using the wrong tool, monetary policy instead of fiscal policy, because ideological reasons.

Denmark has been doing this for years. It's not a perfect solution but it hasn't been a complete disaster either.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#108

Post by mcv »

websites222 wrote: post #82
mcv wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why Europe yes but US no? Europe is also not immigrant-averse and not an island. It doesn't border on Mexico, but it does border on many other countries. I don't see why Europe would suffer a much different fate from the US. I think the main thing holding the EU back is their love for austerity. They could do a lot more to invest in their economy.

Europe as a going United concern is headed towards a breakup. Germany’s demographics (and patience) will not not hold to support countries like Greece and Italy, which funded pensions instead of spending their bailouts responsibly. France will flourish, like it always does, because it’s more or less self sufficient and is strategically located and internally configured, but other countries like Spain will flounder du…

Still, the US seems to have a lot more internal conflicts. People are openly discussing civil war there. I think the EU does a better job of learning from its past, and support for the EU is pretty high.

Of course there will always be problems in the EU, but I don't see it breaking apart any time soon.

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#109

Post by Temporarily21 »

grey-area wrote: post #98
u678u wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Asset inflation has been raging for at least a decade, maybe 2, inflating stock assets, housing and commodities, bitcoin In the US maybe, in the UK the FTSE100 has been pretty flat for over twenty years. Yes houses have gone up a lot, do you really think that can continue? Commodities are flat in the last few decades.

No I don't think the asset bubble can or will continue indefinitely, hence the last sentence above. Re commodities Gold has risen a lot in the last couple of decades.

So hodl gold&silver for economic protection?

Re: UK banks given six months to prepare for negative interest rates

#110

Post by grey-area »

Temporarily21 wrote: post #109
grey-area wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I don't think the asset bubble can or will continue indefinitely, hence the last sentence above. Re commodities Gold has risen a lot in the last couple of decades.

So hodl gold&silver for economic protection?

Historically those have not been great bets to hedge against a crash - they tend to crash with stock prices. See 2008 for an example.
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