Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 667 posts

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#101

Post by 0xffff2 »

tyho wrote: post #10
dm319 wrote: post #3

The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…

The 2030 date will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030, then clear economic opportunities to service the future demand for electric cars and charging infrastructure become apparent. This sidesteps the issues with network effects. You don't have to worry about building a charging network before electric cars become widespre…

>So long as "everybody" truly believes the Governments threat to effectively ban ICE sales after 2030

Will anyone believe that though? Given the propensity of virtually all governments worldwide to do less than promised and the overwhelming amount of infrastructure still needed, I don't take this date seriously at all.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#102

Post by sandworm101 »

ajross wrote: post #32
dm319 wrote: post #3

The UK plan for no ICE vehicles to be sold by 2030 is fairly ambitious. I'm seeing more and more electric vehicles on the roads, but I think some regular customers will be disappointed by how poor the infrastructure is. Not only that electric chargers aren't as prevalent as they need to be, but the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city), but an even bigger problem is the h…

> the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city) That's not so far off. Even large cities in North America have no more than a few dozen gas stations (and the UK likely fewer still due to things like London's congestion pricing reducing vehicle count). Once-a-week-or-so fueling doesn't really require a huge amount of infrastructure. That's one of the reasons we're all addicted…

>> And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt cheap to build relative to fuel stations.

Really? A normal gas station can handle around 100 cars per hour using a handful of pumps and is refueled by daily deliveries from a big truck. Simple. An electric charge point capable of that will require a massive amount of electricity, electricity delivered over wires. Look into how much it costs to run such a service to a random location in a city. Look at the costs of putting up even a handful of towers capable of delivering a thousand amps peak load. Then look the additional real estate costs need to facilitate 100 cars/hour worth of charging points. Electric 'stations' are very much not drop-in replacements. We need a very different physical infrastructure (ie smaller charge points at every parking spot rather than central stations).

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#103

Post by ogre_codes »

xirbeosbwo1234 wrote: post #99
ogre_codes wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And the once in a blue moon they do have to drive more than 300 miles, they'll need to have a spare car to do it. They'll buy their new shiny very expensive Telsa and still have to keep a gasoline-powered car around. I don't think this is the way EV owners deal with long trips. Most Tesla owners seem to just use the Supercharger network and deal with waiting 20 minutes instead of 5 minutes. After 4 hours driving I…

That's the way I, an an EV owner, deal with long trips. I would never try to plot a course from charger to charger. That sounds annoying and dangerous. I also highly doubt that charger networks would scale. Right now there are already busy gas stations by every exit on the highway. Imagine how overloaded they would be if it took an hour to fill up the tank. A plug-in hybrid still makes more sense. They're far cheaper…

This is why Tesla has such a big emphasis on range. If a car has a 300 mile range, I think dealing with charging stations is tolerable. Few people drive more than 500 miles a day so you just have 1 stop, not a bunch.

> Right now there are already busy gas stations by every exit on the highway. Imagine how overloaded they would be if it took an hour to fill up the tank.

How much of that traffic would be eliminated because EVs start the day full charged?

It only takes 20 minutes for the supercharger stations (And most newer entrants are pushing for faster charging with mixed results). It will certainly be interesting to see how well these networks hold up to increasing traffic over time. I've heard the super charger network can get pretty bogged up already on holiday weekends.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#104

Post by ajross »

sandworm101 wrote: post #102
ajross wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the number of high-speed chargers are tiny (think a couple of locations per large city) That's not so far off. Even large cities in North America have no more than a few dozen gas stations (and the UK likely fewer still due to things like London's congestion pricing reducing vehicle count). Once-a-week-or-so fueling doesn't really require a huge amount of infrastructure. That's one of the reasons we're all addicted…

>> And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt cheap to build relative to fuel stations. Really? A normal gas station can handle around 100 cars per hour using a handful of pumps and is refueled by daily deliveries from a big truck. Simple. An electric charge point capable of that will require a massive amount of electricity, electricity delivered over wires. Look into how much it costs to run such a servic…

I'd want to see numbers for that argument, because I don't think I'm willing to buy it on assertion. A single, routine, boring 100A building drop is enough to charge 4-5 cars (i.e. "one station worth"), and those wires and infrastructure are already there, and have been for decades.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#105

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

imglorp wrote: post #68
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real issue is charge times. Gas fillups take a few minutes at most - meaning no long lines. Once charges are close to that speed I think EVs will really take off.

On the road for long trips, yes absolutely. But the EV usecase also includes low and medium speed charging at home overnight, and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison.

You're making many assumptions here.

1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population.

> and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison.

This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to pay for this? Really?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#106

Post by Gibbon1 »

ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #105
imglorp wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the road for long trips, yes absolutely. But the EV usecase also includes low and medium speed charging at home overnight, and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison.

You're making many assumptions here. 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population. > and while at your destination (say a retailer) which you can't do with your ICE car. So overlapping but not identical comparison. This really isn't available yet either. Who's going to pay for this? Really?

> 1st, you're assuming people can charge at home - assuming they have a garage and access to power. This isn't true for a huge portion of the population.

So what, figuring out how people without a designated parking space can change their car is trivial compared to trying to undo global warming. Also Covid has shown us how much disruption we can actually tolerate, hint: a lot more than the powers that be want you to believe.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#107

Post by sandworm101 »

ajross wrote: post #104
sandworm101 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> And charging stations are, of course, absolutely dirt cheap to build relative to fuel stations. Really? A normal gas station can handle around 100 cars per hour using a handful of pumps and is refueled by daily deliveries from a big truck. Simple. An electric charge point capable of that will require a massive amount of electricity, electricity delivered over wires. Look into how much it costs to run such a servic…

I'd want to see numbers for that argument, because I don't think I'm willing to buy it on assertion. A single, routine, boring 100A building drop is enough to charge 4-5 cars (i.e. "one station worth"), and those wires and infrastructure are already there, and have been for decades.

Tesla superchargers take about 40 minutes to deliver an 80% charge. Call that a "full" tank. A gas pump can do the same in about 5 minutes (probably less). So to charge/fill the same number of cars per hour as one gas pump you need 8 superchargers. That's a significant increase in real estate area needed.

Another approach: A top-end Tesla supercharger delivers around 250kW. So eight of those would be 2000kW or 2 Megawatt, or around 20,000 amps, to give the equivalent number of fills/charges per hour as ONE gas pump.

I filled my tank at a medium-sized station this morning that had 8 pumps (4 islands, double-sided). So the drop-in electric replacement would be 8x the numbers above.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#108

Post by maxerickson »

sandworm101 wrote: post #107
ajross wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd want to see numbers for that argument, because I don't think I'm willing to buy it on assertion. A single, routine, boring 100A building drop is enough to charge 4-5 cars (i.e. "one station worth"), and those wires and infrastructure are already there, and have been for decades.

Tesla superchargers take about 40 minutes to deliver an 80% charge. Call that a "full" tank. A gas pump can do the same in about 5 minutes (probably less). So to charge/fill the same number of cars per hour as one gas pump you need 8 superchargers. That's a significant increase in real estate area needed. Another approach: A top-end Tesla supercharger delivers around 250kW. So eight of those would be 2000kW or 2 Mega…

Applebee's can add charge points without any increase in real estate (as an example). The ongoing logistics of having chargers in the parking lot is pretty different than running a gas station.

Which is to say, quickly fueling up at a convenience store probably won't be the only way people charge their vehicles going forward.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#109

Post by davidhbolton »

rini17 wrote: post #70
seanalltogether wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of people in the UK and Ireland that have to park overnight on the street is way too high to start banning ICE vehicles within the next decade. Electric infrastructure isn't enough, they will have to completely revamp entire neighborhoods to provide space for permanent and predictable overnight parking for residents.

After street lighting was upgraded to more energy-effective LEDs there's surplus capacity. Making every pole available for slow overnight charging does not mean to "completely revamp entire neighborhoods". The possibility to sell the electricity might even become attractive for municipality or utility. Also, parking is going to be overhauled anyway, after decades of cars occupying every nook and cranny, there's a str…

I lived in London until 2015 and took a recent look on Street View where I lived (Search for E10 6QB if you want to see) . It was a typical London street where everyone parks nose to nose. There's about 20 cars for every lamp post.

No way could you charge every car that way. With the typical 50-70% street occupancy. You'd be lucky to find a spare lamp post.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#110

Post by sandworm101 »

maxerickson wrote: post #108
sandworm101 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla superchargers take about 40 minutes to deliver an 80% charge. Call that a "full" tank. A gas pump can do the same in about 5 minutes (probably less). So to charge/fill the same number of cars per hour as one gas pump you need 8 superchargers. That's a significant increase in real estate area needed. Another approach: A top-end Tesla supercharger delivers around 250kW. So eight of those would be 2000kW or 2 Mega…

Applebee's can add charge points without any increase in real estate (as an example). The ongoing logistics of having chargers in the parking lot is pretty different than running a gas station. Which is to say, quickly fueling up at a convenience store probably won't be the only way people charge their vehicles going forward.

Exactly. I wasn't saying that charging was impossible, rather that drop-in replacements for gas stations are impracticable and certainly would not be "cheap". The widespread use of EVs will require a very different physical infrastructure.
Post reply on HN