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Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

vitamindforall.org

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Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#101

Post by irq11 »

esyir wrote: post #77
irq11 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not. Science is “built on” evidence. I am a professional scientist. Nobody has ever given me a pass on publication simply because they want to believe me. That said, science is a human institution, and all humans have cognitive biases that can be exploited - particularly in large groups.

That's a terribly optimistic view of science, speaking as someone who was also in the same boat. They might not just accept anything, but it'll be much easier if they want to believe you. This goes quintuple for social science.

Yes, we agree on that. Which is, again, why we don’t do “science“ by length of signature list.

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#102

Post by irq11 »

jiofih wrote: post #95
irq11 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A later increase in infections does not invalidate statistical significance for earlier studies. It’s just math, not “an excuse”. So your theory is that masks worked then , but stopped working now ? Convenient! > You’ll never see the data for how many cases would have been recorded without the measures in place. Well, yes, exactly...these are uncontrolled studies. Which is why they’re such garbage. You can see that…

No, the one from Jena was a controlled study, and they tried to exclude any biases like neighboring cities. It’s “synthetic” because you can’t create two equal cities and population to test, unfortunately. Again, did you actually open and read the link? It’s pointless to discuss your feelings in place of the studies. You’re dismissing all of the data in that report based on.. what? Again, the increase in total cases…

It’s a “synthetic control” because they didn’t actually have a control group. So they tried to pretend their was such a group by taking data from elsewhere.

Yes, I read the paper.

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#103

Post by irq11 »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #98
irq11 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have “cherry picked“ nothing. That’s the data from the study. The researchers picked the start date, arbitrarily, to produce the outcome they liked. It’s obvious. By the way: there was a randomized controlled trial for masks and covid published just recently. They were able to detect no statistically significant protective effect: https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/89778

I was referring to other studies that cherry picked for your position you posted "in this thread," not that study that supposedly cherry picked for the pro-mask position. The study you just linked to is an excellent example of using poor methodology to support your position. If a study is not powered to detect the expected change (for the mask wearer, which is expected to be very small) with full compliance, I would…

I “cherry picked“ no other studies for this thread.

The DAMASK study is literally the only RCT ever run for masks and Covid. You may not like it or what it says, but its much higher quality than any of these uncontrolled, correlative, pro-mask “papers” that have been rushed out since March.

> It did not attempt to measure the effect on transmission from the mask wearer to others at all.

Because you can’t. Short of locking a group of people in a room with infected people and seeing who gets it, thats an unfalsifiable hypothesis.

Fortunately, we know that masks are not magically effective in one direction only, and if they don’t work in one direction....

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#104

Post by lern_too_spel »

irq11 wrote: post #103
lern_too_spel wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was referring to other studies that cherry picked for your position you posted "in this thread," not that study that supposedly cherry picked for the pro-mask position. The study you just linked to is an excellent example of using poor methodology to support your position. If a study is not powered to detect the expected change (for the mask wearer, which is expected to be very small) with full compliance, I would…

I “cherry picked“ no other studies for this thread. The DAMASK study is literally the only RCT ever run for masks and Covid . You may not like it or what it says, but its much higher quality than any of these uncontrolled, correlative, pro-mask “papers” that have been rushed out since March. > It did not attempt to measure the effect on transmission from the mask wearer to others at all. Because you can’t. Short of l…

> I “cherry picked“ no other studies for this thread.

Here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25680698

> You may not like it or what it says, but its much higher quality than any of these uncontrolled, correlative, pro-mask “papers” that have been rushed out since March.

I showed you why it is not.

> Because you can’t.

And here you admit as much — that this study is useless to measure the effect of a mask mandate.

> Short of locking a group of people in a room with infected people and seeing who gets it, thats an unfalsifiable hypothesis.

And here you admit that it is impossible to do a study that proves the effectiveness of masks to the degree that would satisfy you. In the absence of such studies, we have to rely on our priors, which are based on laboratory-proven effectiveness of masks in reducing the distance and the mass of virus particle spread from the wearer combined with what we know about germ theory.

> if they don’t work in one direction....

You somehow ignored that your study does not show that it does not work in either direction. It was not designed to measure effectiveness in one direction, and it was not powered to measure effectiveness in the other direction.

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#105

Post by incrudible »

jupiter90000 wrote: post #71
incrudible wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most studies are flawed. We don't know that Vitamin D works. We also don't know that it doesn't work. Therefore, we need to consider either possibilities. Given that it is such a low-risk intervention, even a 99% chance that Vitamin D doesn't work would make supplementing worthwhile.

No offense, but this logic makes no sense to me. It's like, most studies are flawed so let's try random things I saw on the internet in hopes they might help. I don't get it. Don't really care if someone takes Vitamin D but don't get this argument/logic. That's ok, I'll move on.

It's not "a random thing on the internet". The Vitamin D correlation has been observed early in the pandemic. Most people are generally deficient and should supplement either way.

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#106

Post by joshuamorton »

irq11 wrote: post #99
joshuamorton wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So your theory is that masks worked then, but stopped working now? This doesn't follow. It's completely believable that masks have continued to be effective at curbing spread by 40% continuously. However increased holiday travel, as well as colder weather and people hanging out more in doors caused an increase in spread that wasn't present in the summer.

So let me summarize: Cases go down after mask mandate: proof that masks work! Cases go up after mask mandate: masks still work! This isn’t science.

You're right, your inference method isn't science. Science is "given two relatively similar municipalities, if one enforces a mask mandate, cases decrease in that municipality compared to the other". A finding that was repeatedly verified on the scale of cities, counties, and nations.

That months after mask mandates were enforced, case rates went up everywhere, including in places where masks weren't enforced, doesn't sound like it has particularly much to do with masks.

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#107

Post by irq11 »

pmiller2 wrote: post #66
irq11 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The open letter for face masks is a great example for why this kind of thing is dubious. All prior high-quality evidence disputed the claim: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/specia... The subsequent evidence of real-world effectiveness isn’t great: cases are skyrocketing around the northern hemisphere, and mask mandates aren’t making a difference. The only randomized controlled trial ever conduct…

There's a difference between "mask mandates aren't making a difference" and " masks aren't effective." Take a look at Japan, where the government has done fuck all to deal with the virus, but people wear their masks.

> Take a look at Japan

OK: ” A record 7,841 new coronavirus cases were reported in Japan as of 8 p.m. on Friday. The nationwide daily tally has set a record for a fourth day in a row.”

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210108_40/

That’s some fantastic evidence that masks don’t work.

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#108

Post by pmiller2 »

irq11 wrote: post #107
pmiller2 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between "mask mandates aren't making a difference" and " masks aren't effective." Take a look at Japan, where the government has done fuck all to deal with the virus, but people wear their masks.

> Take a look at Japan OK: ” A record 7,841 new coronavirus cases were reported in Japan as of 8 p.m. on Friday. The nationwide daily tally has set a record for a fourth day in a row.” https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210108_40/ That’s some fantastic evidence that masks don’t work.

Le sigh. Just because infections are increasing does not mean masks don't work. Tell me, what would the numbers be without masks?

Re: Over 100 Scientists and Doctors Call for Increased Vitamin D to Combat Covid-19

#110

Post by kpfleger »

sizzle wrote: post #109

How credible is vitaminforall.org? Never heard of it...

The site itself was set up (by me) just to host this open letter, just as the site masks4all.co was set up to host the similar open letter that happened for masks in the spring. The credibility isn't of the site itself but of the signatories of the site, which are listed plainly (with any conflicts of interest). Look through the list yourself to judge their credibility.
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