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You might not need machine learning

nullprogram.com

101–110 of 201 posts

Re: You might not need machine learning

#101
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely curious as to what you moved into after working as a data scientist. I'm a data scientist and desperate to get out.

As a data scientist at the start of my career: why?

The list is so long we might as well start another thread for it.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#102
post #34
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well... I guess most people equal ML with AI and use these terms interchangeably. If you just replace ML with AI everywhere in this article it is going to make sense. The article has other problems, one being the main premise. The problem isn't to drive a car around track (which is what the polynomials did) but rather write a program that can figure out how to drive a car without you knowing how to solve it.

Well that depends on your definition of AI. Which isn't well defined. We call AI what we perceive as "magic". Black box algorithms have a higher chance of being perceived that way (e.g. neural nets). When you get some insight into how an algorithm works (easier for transparent box algos, but same holds for black box algorithms), you start to see it less and less as "magic", and, consequently, you're less likely to re…

A professor once told in class "when it works and you don't understand why, it's called AI; when you do, it's called algorithm"

Re: You might not need machine learning

#103
post #31

> A key feature of neural networks is that the outputs are a nonlinear function of the inputs. However, steering a 2D car is simple enough that a linear function is more than sufficient, and neural networks are unnecessary. This depends entirely on the definition of 'steering a 2D car'. In the model used, throttle is simply proportional to the distance to the nearest wall in front of the car. This means the agent wil…

There is enough delay in the feedback loops that the simple steer to the middle works - despite the jagged edge, you still track a straight line to within a few cm.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#104
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well... I guess most people equal ML with AI and use these terms interchangeably. If you just replace ML with AI everywhere in this article it is going to make sense. The article has other problems, one being the main premise. The problem isn't to drive a car around track (which is what the polynomials did) but rather write a program that can figure out how to drive a car without you knowing how to solve it.

In my understanding AI is an even broader term and means "any solution that imitates intelligent behavior". E.g. expert systems which are pretty much a bunch of if-then rules are also considered AI.

It's my understanding as well, many things that a modern programmer thinks in term of "computation" were once considered to be "AI". Lisp and Prolog were "AI", even the A* algorithm is still considered a rudimentary form of "AI" in textbooks just because it uses heuristics. There's a joke that says "every time AI researchers figure out a piece of it, it stops being AI" [0].

It's why I use "AI" and "ML" interchangeably although I know it's technically incorrect - the formal definition doesn't match what people are currently thinking.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect

Re: You might not need machine learning

#105
> Instead of doing anything fancy, my program generates the coefficients at random to explore the space. If I wanted to generate a good driver for a course, I’d run a few thousand of these and pick the coefficients that complete the course in the shortest time.

It is worth pointing out that this strategy can likely overfit on the data that you have used for training: when you change the track, your car may not behave as good as before. In other words: the coefficients are only good for that specific track(s).

The author is still using Machine Learning, even if not with neural networks: the need for rigorous strategies for model selection doesn't disappear.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#106
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might not be a hard boundary, but I think the perception of ML vs. optimization is how much of a model you have. If all you have is a black box, then it's ML; if you know how the system you are studying works, it's (parameter) optimization.

That’s a very unfair distinction, almost like a No True Scotsmam fallacy to say machine learning is only bad and other stuff is only good (in terms of transparency). But machine learning has predated neural networks by hundreds of years. The core mathematical basis of all machine learning coursework linear regression and decision trees. Other models like SVMs, Bayesian models, nearest neighbor indexes, TFIDF text sea…

Saying that linear regression is machine learning is like saying that newtons laws is chemistry. There was no machine learning before computers, just regular old optimization algorithms.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#107

I love the article, but I don't agree with the premise that machine learning equals neural nets. In my understanding machine learning is a very broad term that just as well could be applied to the polynomial model if the constants were optimized algorithmically. I feel like the presented argument is more for transparent vs opaque models rather than machine learning vs something else. Also one could argue that the pol…

As soon as we recognize plain old regression as machine learning, then we start to see "averages" as models of systems and how practically useful could that be?

Well, actually working with "averages" as baselines before you start experimenting with more complex ML models is a good habit.

Sure, they are dummy regressors [1], but they can be so useful for proving that your whatever ML model you choose is at least better than a dummy baseline. If your model can't beat it, then you need to develop a better one.

They can even be used as a place-holder model so you can develop your whole architecture surrounding it, while another teammate is iterating over more complex experiments.

You could also settle in for a moving average process as a first model in a time-series [2], because they are easy to implement and simple to reason about.

Never under-estimate the power of an "average".

[1] https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/generated/sklearn.du... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving-average_model

Re: You might not need machine learning

#108
post #31

> A key feature of neural networks is that the outputs are a nonlinear function of the inputs. However, steering a 2D car is simple enough that a linear function is more than sufficient, and neural networks are unnecessary. This depends entirely on the definition of 'steering a 2D car'. In the model used, throttle is simply proportional to the distance to the nearest wall in front of the car. This means the agent wil…

I see the article more as a broader metaphor for the AI hype. Take, I dunno, video recommendation. Sure, YouTube itself proably built insane stuff in their engine you could never replicate with classic methods (ignoring whether the YT algo is any good). However, if we are just talking about the Vlog of your real estate company, you should probably A/B-test whether your viewers prefer order by time or clicks and imple…

Video recommendation is the quintessential machine learning killjoy. YouTube and Netflix were a lot more interesting before they achieved algorithmic homogeneity.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#109
There's another aspect of this overhype of machine learning right now.

Manager - We need to do X, we need a ML Data Scientist.

Engineering Team - there's a simple solution we can use instead of ML.

Manager - No we need a ML Data Scientist, we need to do this right.

Time Passes, hiring a ML Data Scientist is hard, and the problem never gets solved.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#110
I thought hn has an intelligent and well informed crowd. ok I get it that engineers are not scientist but judging from the responses here it's quite staggering to me how clueless some ppl are here.. do yourself a favour and maybe learn a bit about ml before forming an opinion. massaging JavaScript for a living is cool I guess but maybe there's a reason faang is paying 5-10x your salaries to ml researchers. maybe just maybe it's not just hype but billions and billions of dollars worth of innovation potential. it's quite clear to me that a lot of cs ppl are super bitter that they are not the top paid ppl anymore but supply and demand dictates these things and turns out inventing the latest transformer architecture is more valuable (and factors of magnitude less ppl can do it) than writing trivial front end or backend stuff..
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