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536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

sciencemag.org

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Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#101

Post by datenhorst »

bwanab wrote: post #5

I’ve recently gotten through this period in the “History of Byzantium” podcast series. Justinian had just recently retaken many of the old western Roman provinces, not least of which was Rome itself, and the breadbasket of North Africa. Things were finally looking good for the Romans again when the plague hit. The armies were unfortunately overextended and now half their ranks were dead or dying. It was an irresistib…

I listened to this years ago but could still remember Procopius' quote. I just looked it up and apparently the consensus at the time of recording (2013) was a meteor strike rather than a volcanic eruption. Interesting.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#102

Post by tastyfreeze »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #71
SllX wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm, well we saw something like it recently and it mostly just stranded people in Europe from what I recall. Eyjafjallajökull erupted in Iceland about 10 years ago and there wasn’t anything we could do but wait it out, and it was a lot less severe than what’s described in this article.

Although it's worth asking, did the eruption affect agricultural output in Iceland? Maybe modern farming is just resilient enough against volcanic eruptions, as it is against all the other things that used to cause famines.

Modern farming is not resilient in any way. Production is centralized, mechanized and heavily reliant on outside inputs. Global trade lessens the degree to which a regional crop failure affects a population. Smaller, distributed, local farms lessen the reliance on trade but still very much rely on our gracious host to provide clean rain and sun. The only way to escape that is immense amounts of electricity for indoor farming.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#103

Post by crispyporkbites »

komali2 wrote: post #40
deanCommie wrote: post #10

These kinds of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions could happen today right? What's.......our intended process for dealing with this? Are there any technical solutions for dispersing ash from the atmosphere? I know this is a stupidly naive question to some degree - how do you prevent acts of god, but I am curious if someone has thought about it.

> What's.......our intended process for dealing with this? The extent of the USA's preparedness, from the federal agency in charge handling Emergencies, is a website with a bullet point list of what you should have in a first aid kit in your house: https://www.ready.gov/kit I'm being only partially facetious. There are of course multiple agencies at the federal, state, county, and local level with their own plans and…

USA is about 4% of the global population, the US government stance is not really relevant.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#104

Post by bilegeek »

ativzzz wrote: post #97
lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

> To me this is the main reason that going multiplanetary or space habitat based is basically the only way to escape this inevitable doom I disagree with this. Leaving the Earth doesn't remove random acts of doom from happening, and in fact, they are more lethal in unfamiliar and hostile environments. If we do not figure out how to handle such black swan events on our home planet, we have no chance of handling them i…

That's the issue. If we can't handle the black swan events in time, we'll at least have a backup.

Granted, this doesn't cover bigger black swan events like gamma ray bursts, where the entire solar system is screwed, but it'll at least help with Earthside apocalypse.

The fact that we couldn't handle it is indeed incriminating against our abilities as a species, but as they say, perfect is the enemy of good.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#105

Post by subsubzero »

ryandrake wrote: post #86
divbzero wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope this pandemic has opened everyone’s eyes to the benefits of disaster preparedness. If more of us get into the habit of stocking up in advance, we would experience less of a spike in demand when the next disaster strikes.

I considered myself an "aspirational Prepper" before the pandemic, but I'm getting more and more serious about it. Watching society totally freak out over as little as going without TP for a few weeks and going without their manicure for a few months has been eye-opening. My plans to stock up on survival supplies and buy a little bug out property in a remote spot have gone from "wouldn't that be neat?" to "maybe it i…

I try to be prepared as possible, at least for covid there was a little warning, I was extremely concerned late Jan. '20 and bought extra TP/paper towels/razors before everything went crazy. For a volcanic eruption there is little to no warning so having essentials on hand seems pretty important. I went to school/knew alot of Mormons and used to poke fun at them for having so much canned food(the church mentions stocking up on a years worth of food) and that doesn't seem that out of line now.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#106

Post by castis »

waterhouse wrote: post #98
castis wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

one of the attributes of an act of god is being unpreventable by humans. in the event of something like this, having the supplies to just weather the fallout would be best. a years worth of supplies on-hand would be a good start.

> one of the attributes of an act of god is being unpreventable by humans. That may be, but the set of things that humans can prevent gets larger over time. For example, 100 years ago, an asteroid hitting the earth would be an act of God we could do nothing about, but today it is at least within the realm of possibility that we could observe a large asteroid on a collision course and send in a spacecraft or missile t…

As much as I hope I never witness this, watching humanity strap a rocket to an asteroid for this purpose would probably rank #1 on the list of Most Bitchin Things Ever.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#107

Post by sethammons »

ativzzz wrote: post #97
lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

> To me this is the main reason that going multiplanetary or space habitat based is basically the only way to escape this inevitable doom I disagree with this. Leaving the Earth doesn't remove random acts of doom from happening, and in fact, they are more lethal in unfamiliar and hostile environments. If we do not figure out how to handle such black swan events on our home planet, we have no chance of handling them i…

The idea is not to avoid black swan events entirely, it is to have pockets that are missed by a given event. Earth goes cold? Well, good thing the moon base can preserve technology and knowledge for a hundred years. Solar flare? Good thing we have the under-ice base on Europa. Europa explodes? Good thing that we are still on Earth. Now if they all happen at the same time, like the sun dying, then that is why you want to get a star base even further away.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#108

Post by politelemon »

klyrs wrote: post #85
deanCommie wrote: post #10

These kinds of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions could happen today right? What's.......our intended process for dealing with this? Are there any technical solutions for dispersing ash from the atmosphere? I know this is a stupidly naive question to some degree - how do you prevent acts of god, but I am curious if someone has thought about it.

Edit: don't take my word for it, apparently this is a popular myth Read up on Yellowstone, for example -- AFAIK it's "due for a big one" but it blows up so infrequently and so catastrophically that there's no real plan other than "maybe think about not living in North America." But hey, volcanic ash is a coolant for the climate -- a few well-placed eruptions could do some good, on a global scale (sorry about the loca…

I looked it up, but according to this, it isn't due for a big one, it's merely media hyperbole.

>Although fascinating, the new findings do not imply increased geologic hazards at Yellowstone, and certainly do not increase the chances of a 'supereruption' in the near future. Contrary to some media reports, Yellowstone is not 'overdue' for a supereruption.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera#Volcanoes

www.nationalparkstraveler.com/2014/01/reactions-yellowstone-supervolcano-study-ranged-hysteria-ho-hum24449

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#109

Post by jcranmer »

lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

> (like whatever happened to cause the Younger Dryas [1] "only" ~13k years ago which is theorized to have been either a mega eruption, impact event or stellar supernova)

My understanding is that the current leading theory is a drastic shift in outflow of Lake Agassiz (an expanded version of Lake Manitoba in Canada).

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