Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know about uncertainty per se or on isolation but I know at least with respect to economic downturns, recessions, and slumps and all the relation has been quantified to some extent by economists or social scientists from what I understand. Not sure how much the increase goes but it's considered a measurable thing apparently and has enough history to sketch out some kind of correlation from what I understand.…
"Quantified to some extent," yes, but not as rigorously as the effects of SARS-Cov-2. Basic epidemiological models tell us that we at least 60% or so of the population to be immune in order to reach herd immunity. Based on an infection fatality rate of 0.5% and a US population of about 328M, you multiply that out to get an order of magnitude estimate of ~1M dead, whereas during the Great Depression (probably our clos…
But the more urgent predictions at this point come from epidemiologists. And I wonder have epidemiologists had a good track record at predicting previous outbreaks accurately, say SARS, ebola, whatever, 20th and 21st century stuff? As of today we're two orders of magnitude off from those worst case scenario of millions of deaths in the US I thought were surely coming. I guess another question is how long were these millions of deaths expected to arrive, in 12 months, 18 months?
That's a good point, how fragile or robust should an economy be expected to be to wait things out. The fact that lots of companies operate off debt probably doesn't bode well for them weathering any significant storm. Can't build a house on sand and expect it to stand as the saying goes.