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New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

theatlantic.com

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Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#101

Post by empath75 »

anonsubmit2671 wrote: post #31
empath75 wrote: post #2

Successive lockdowns and easings are probably going to continue for up to two years. Anybody arguing that the stock market or the economy is going to bounce back quickly in the next two months are either bullshitting you or deluding themselves. No “stimulus” package is going to be effective, because you can’t use spending to stimulate an economy which has been forced to stop producing goods and services. All you will…

First part is mostly correct. Second part, you're dead wrong in two areas. Manufacturing of essential goods continues in haste. And, stimulus is essential for people have lost their jobs and need to buy food. So take your theoretical keyboard economics degree and leave it at the door. Let's take away your source of income, ability to work and see how you feed your family.

It will keep people in their houses in the very short term, but it won’t fix the overall economic problems if the economy is frozen for a year or more.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#102

Post by jariel »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #87
jariel wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"HK and Tokyo are not examples to be emulated, they are examples of what we should be trying to avoid." ??? Japan has one of the lowest rates of infection/million and data shows that spread is considerably slower. Assuming the data is not fiction, obviously, we should be emulating them, not ignoring them. FYI they also have not 'locked down'. They're literally stopping the virus while not destroying their economies,…

It's likely, unfortunately, that the Tokyo data is fiction. There's been a significant spike in new cases starting immediately after the Olympics were officially delayed.

I share your skepticism, that said, it'd be nary impossible to hide hospitals overflowing with patients etc. there'd be too many whistleblowers in the medical community. So we'll have to keep an eye on Japan.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#103

Post by GavinMcG »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #78
amylene wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deaths would also worsen an economic depression. Why does everybody forget about this? Also, an economic depression reduces air pollution which would reduce deaths. There are lots of factors that would need to be considered. Most people I’ve seen advocating this pov are stopping at the first order analysis.

Because most people who don't advocate the POV are stopping at the zeroth order analysis, saying that you're a heartless killer if you want to consider any factors instead of just saving lives.

Consider, sure, but we need to actually consider.

There is no model for any of this, on either side of the issue, and so the off-hand "we need to get back to dating, etc." really does look... heartless. It's just as much a zeroeth-order analysis as the other.

Fixing that would mean giving due consideration to the complexity of the situation, at least attempting to define one's assumptions/model, and being explicit about how much loss of life one is willing to accept.

With inadequate measures, this pandemic could rival the Holocaust in number of deaths. There's absolutely a difference between allowing millions to be killed rather than committing mass murder or genocide, but "let's get back to life as usual" does demand justification.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#104

Post by dang »

vanniv wrote: post #40

Now that governments have proven that people will let them imprison everyone at any time, just by saying "virus", they're gearing up to do it again, all the time, forever, whenever it would be convenient. After they've done it a few times, they'll just make it permanent. By everyone agreeing to huddle terrified in their homes over nothing, we have permanently ended free movement and free assembly in our societies.

Would you please stop posting inflammatory rants to HN? You've been doing it a lot, and this site is not for that.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#106

Post by sebazzz »

lazylizard wrote: post #105

Why wont the world stay at home together for 3 months? Lets start apr1! Then by july there will be no more covid19. And lots of other infectious diseases too, i imagine..

If only there was a way to suspend the entire economy.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#107

Post by igetspam »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #70
igetspam wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The possible end result of the disease is death. Which cure is worse? A 44 year old school teacher and father of six died in my county. He went from sick to dead in a week. He had no underlying conditions that made him "at risk." By all accounts, he was active and healthy. The population of people who are at risk of death or long term lung damage are those that can be classified as "human." I don't particularly care…

I guess I'm not sure I see why we're the ones who have to move. I'd be totally fine with a proposal to construct voluntary social distancing sites for people who'd like to spend the next 18 months isolated.

Perhaps because the safety of the majority should outweigh the minority. If you'd like to risk yourself, why shouldn't you be the one to move to a high infection site? Why protect you and yours and not me and mine? Those who opt in to risky behavior (willfully accepting the possibility of being infected with a dangerous virus being the risky behavior), should be allowed to do so away from the rest of us.
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