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Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

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101–110 of 351 posts

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#101
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> years designing, simulating So trial and error, but virtually. You're telling me we went to the moon on the first try? We went into space on the first try? The Wright brothers were successful on their first flight? No, it was all trial and error.

Simulation is not the same as trial and error. There's no such thing as a perfect simulation, and imperfect simulations without real world testing and iteration result in disasters. There are many examples, but the Mars probe that crashed because of a unit conversion error comes to mind.

> Mars probe that crashed because of a unit conversion error comes

So a trial and subsequent error.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why does it need to be super-large? To simulate gravity? Rocket efficiency scales infinitely with size.

The rocket equation [0] disagrees: "In what has been called 'the tyranny of the rocket equation', there is a limit to the amount of payload that the rocket can carry, as higher amounts of propellant increment the overall weight, and thus also increase the fuel consumption" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation

The pure, theoretical rocket equation still scales linearly, the tyranny lies in the hard limit of how much mass you can theoretically accelerate out of a gravity well per unit off fuel.

But bigger rockets can get closer to that theoretical optimum because some dead weight components remain fixed-size and because some masses scale with surface instead of volume. Rockets can scale better than linearly with size, but they will never exceed the rocket equation.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#103

I respect the clarity of the vision and the drivenness to make the vision a reality. I disagree with the vision. The best analogy I can think of right now is high school kids renting a hotel for a party and trashing it and then doing the same thing next week. That’s humanity right now. There is no Planet B until we build a mutualistic relationship with the one that created us. And yes when I say “there is no Planet B…

Need to ask the question "What is life?"

Maybe it's just the thing that tries to fill the volume. Because otherwise it's displaced by a different one that does it faster. You argue about "how fast" should it be so life won't starve itself, but I think everybody is familiar with this danger. Then we can approach it more formally: what time/speed/volume/survival probability we want, try to calculate it for different options and go from there.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#104
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was my first thought as well - how does the spiritus movens behind both Tesla and SpaceX have the bandwidth to pull off that level of (micro)management?

He doesn't, plain and simple. So either it is propaganda or dilution or hybris. Probably a combination of all three.

People say he doesn't over and over - but he beats expectations over and over. Hmm.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#105
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, due to Mars' lower gravity and lack of a magnetically active core, not only can it not hold a substantial atmosphere to begin with, any such atmosphere would inevitably be blown away by solar winds. So there's that. Maybe we can put a big dome around the whole thing like Planet Druidia.

The timeline for that process is millennia, so if we come up with a continual process for replenishment that works on shorter timeframes, it's maintainable. https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-mission-reveals-spee... > MAVEN measurements indicate that the solar wind strips away gas at a rate of about 100 grams (equivalent to roughly 1/4 pound) every second. "Like the theft of a few coins from a cash register ever…

Fair enough, but that still results in an inherently unstable biosphere.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#106
post #47
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm happy Musk _is_ obsessed. The world would be a worse off place without SpaceX and Tesla, who both are what they are to a large extent because of him.

> I'm happy Musk _is_ obsessed. I can definitely empathize with that, I'm happy with what's being achieved as well. Seing how SpaceX and Tesla are routinely achieving their goals and arguably change the world, I often can't get over the fact that the output of our civilization seems to hinge on the iron will of a few billionaires. Elon Musk (and SpaceX as his tool) is just an extremely illustrative example of this, b…

> I wish there was a Musk-like figure focused on transhumanism

There is, his name is Elon Musk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink

Unfortunately, the science and technology involved is nowhere near ready for a Starship-style push to be feasible. That's not even mentioning the legal environment.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#107
What is the benefit of settling on Mars?

Until we explain that in some kind of sane way that doesn’t just involve the earth being a crutch for raw materials, it all seems rather stupid to me.

Settling an earth-like planet? Sure! Seems logical. Mars? Not really.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#109
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rocket equation [0] disagrees: "In what has been called 'the tyranny of the rocket equation', there is a limit to the amount of payload that the rocket can carry, as higher amounts of propellant increment the overall weight, and thus also increase the fuel consumption" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation

I'm having a mental blockage on this, as you can always launch 10 rockets at the same time and get 10 times the payload. Having those 10 rockets strapped together should not change the payload of them flying independently. What am I missing here -- I'm sure I'm overlooking something.

Yes.

On the other hand, ten fuel tanks will mass more than a single fuel tank with ten times the volume.

Re: Elon Musk’s plan to build one Starship a week and settle Mars

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason why we have the prosperity that we have today is because inventive people built things that people like you said were not worth the time.

> The only reason why we have the prosperity that we have today is because inventive people built things that people like you said were not worth the time. Does it? Do you have some examples? As far as I can tell, societal progress moves slowly and incrementally, with many people contributing by building on the works of others.

Lightbulb, Automobiles, Printing press

https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/87288/8-skeptical-early-...

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