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Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

cdc.gov

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Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#101

Post by gdubs »

matwood wrote: post #36
ransom1538 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy. %20 of the cases require some type of hospitalization. %80 are mild and don't require medical attention. If you have Covid-19 rampant in your town - the hospitals will fill with persons experiencing a bad flu - that %20. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases...

Yeah, this is more serious than the flu, but not as serious as MERS or SARS. Like the seasonal flu, the main worry is older people and/or people who are already respiratory compromised. I don't want to catch this much like I don't want to catch the flu, but my main worry is for my parents and grandparents.

There’s something of a social stigma around treating this thing seriously but alarm bells should be ringing at this point.

We have, essentially, a hurricane off the coast (so to speak) and no one can say with certainty whether it will blow over or whether people are going to take a direct hit.

Like with storms, there’s the fear that hyping it up too much will lower trust in the future. However, not preparing people and then having the worst happen is many times worse.

This thing should absolutely be taken seriously. The responsible thing at this point is to prepare for worst and plan. The worst being an overwhelmed healthcare system because too many people require hospitalization all at once.

If the hurricane blows over, we’ll have stocked up our emergency kits that we, frankly, all should have had in the first place.

But we should really stop comparing this to the flu.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#102

Post by edejong »

Loughla wrote: post #99
edejong wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Care to explain the down-voting?

I'll take a stab at why you're being down-voted.: >case fatality ratio (CFR) is around 2%, which is 20x higher than the flu. [Citation needed] >This number is likely to rise when ICUs are becoming over-constrained and cannot take new patients. This is already happening in the north of Italy as we speak. [Citation Needed] I can find citations for crowded hospitals in popular media, but nothing about the death rate inc…

HN is not Wikipedia. I am more than happy to provide evidence for my claims, but I'd be downvoting almost every single comment on HN if those were the requirements.

The CFR is easy to find with a Google search. There are multiple studies currently providing strong lower and upper bounds on CFR.

My second statement has the word 'likely' in it. W.r.t. Italy, I am talking about an Italian media article describing over-constrained hospitals and the provisioning of military field hospitals.

Third statement has some evidence in other parts of the thread.

Fourth statement: many, many experts are warning that we are doing too little to late. The need for a response is logical given the high R0, CFR and needed hospitalization. If needed, I can provide some links, but going to my next meeting right now.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#103

Post by Loughla »

edejong wrote: post #102
Loughla wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take a stab at why you're being down-voted.: >case fatality ratio (CFR) is around 2%, which is 20x higher than the flu. [Citation needed] >This number is likely to rise when ICUs are becoming over-constrained and cannot take new patients. This is already happening in the north of Italy as we speak. [Citation Needed] I can find citations for crowded hospitals in popular media, but nothing about the death rate inc…

HN is not Wikipedia. I am more than happy to provide evidence for my claims, but I'd be downvoting almost every single comment on HN if those were the requirements. The CFR is easy to find with a Google search. There are multiple studies currently providing strong lower and upper bounds on CFR. My second statement has the word 'likely' in it. W.r.t. Italy, I am talking about an Italian media article describing over-c…

HN is not wikipedia, correct. But there is a baseline for expectation, from what I can tell. If you're going to make claims of fact, especially for something controversial, you need to support with facts. That's your job as the person making the claim.

Otherwise, you need to put a sentence in there that all of these things are just your opinion.

And your response to me is just more hand-waving "i'm right i'm right" with zero content. You're still doing it.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#104

Post by y-c-o-m-b »

dboreham wrote: post #3

>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States. Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

This was my first thought! My child here in Oregon has all the symptoms (fever, cough, and respiratory issues) and was exposed to a VERY close proxy of the person here in Oregon that recently tested positive. The doctor at the urgent care (we've gone twice now) even heard crackling in the lungs. They labeled it as the flu (note: my kid was vaccinated this year) but they didn't test for the flu and they only prescribed steroids to clear up the lung issues.

Given the mismanagement I've seen first hand, at this point I am reasonably sure the virus is indeed wide-spread.

EDIT: Just to clarify in case anyone thinks I'm being overly paranoid: the person that tested positive in Oregon is a school employee and acquired it via community-based transmission. The kids that my child goes to school with have siblings that were directly exposed to that person. The time-frame fits within the two week incubation period as well.

Criteria as set out by the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-crite...

> Fever or signs/symptoms of lower respiratory illness (e.g. cough or shortness of breath) AND Any person, including healthcare workers, who has had close contact with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patient within 14 days of symptom onset

For healthcare professionals to brush off these facts as "the flu" without first performing a flu test to validate such a claim is irresponsible and indicative of an issue where this virus has gone undetected with valid cases being mislabeled as the flu despite evidence suggestive of Covid-19. Further supported by: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-s...

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#105

Post by sounds »

jtdev wrote: post #42

Seems like social distancing and a recommendation from the CDC of cancelling mass gatherings of > 5000 would be a great measure to slow the waves of infection that are likely to hit and overwhelm healthcare systems if such measures are not taken. HIMSS 2020, a conference of ~45000 attendees from 90+ countries is still scheduled to go forward at Orange County Convention Center Orlando March 9-13 - even as major partic…

South by Southwest is still, as far as I can tell, planned to go from March 13 - March 22.

A change.org petition to have it cancelled: https://www.businessinsider.com/10000-call-for-sxsw-to-be-ca...

But the organizers have doggedly soldiered on: https://www.sxsw.com/attendee-safety/

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#106

Post by nickjj »

So here's a serious question.

What are the odds of you getting this virus by handling a DVD that was shipped in the mail from someone who is infected?

I'm actually thinking about suspending my Netflix DVD subscription for a bit because if people are put on "self quarantines" then they might be inclined to watch movies which means they are potentially shipping contaminated DVDs around the country.

Can this virus live for 1-3 days without a host?

This seems like a really bad way for it to spread if it can survive without a host for a bit. There you are, sick, laying in bed at night, maybe rubbing your nose, coughing, touching various parts of your body, laying in a bed you've been in all week while you recover, and then you handle the DVD with your hands, seal it up and send it across the country which is then shipped to someone else.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#107

Post by Footkerchief »

lubesGordi wrote: post #85
dboreham wrote: post #3

>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States. Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

You should back up your claims. The CDC reports that over 470 tests have been done to date. Is that practically zero? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html "numerous cases" You'll have to back that up as well given the linked article clearly states the cryptic transmission in Washington is accounted for. They call it "Community Spread."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-new-york-city-do...

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#108

Post by Footkerchief »

Striking summary from the WHO report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

> Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#109

Post by Loughla »

nickjj wrote: post #106

So here's a serious question. What are the odds of you getting this virus by handling a DVD that was shipped in the mail from someone who is infected? I'm actually thinking about suspending my Netflix DVD subscription for a bit because if people are put on "self quarantines" then they might be inclined to watch movies which means they are potentially shipping contaminated DVDs around the country. Can this virus live…

From the WHO:

>From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#110

Post by nickjj »

Loughla wrote: post #109
nickjj wrote: post #106

So here's a serious question. What are the odds of you getting this virus by handling a DVD that was shipped in the mail from someone who is infected? I'm actually thinking about suspending my Netflix DVD subscription for a bit because if people are put on "self quarantines" then they might be inclined to watch movies which means they are potentially shipping contaminated DVDs around the country. Can this virus live…

From the WHO: >From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

Thanks.

Although, their definition of "do not survive long" isn't crystal clear.

The WHO article you've quoted came from here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

But that's specifically in reference to receiving letters from China which might take a decent amount of time to cross the globe without human contact. In the Netflix case, I'm sure the turn around time for a DVD to go from household A to household B is a lot less time than China to the US.

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