Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#101

Post by arnaudsm » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:33 PM UTC

buboard wrote: post #35

it would be naive/foolish to expect that the enormous technological progress and overpopulation by humans would not affect the environment. The question is how fast can people and ecosystems adapt. This is not the first nor the biggest change the earth has seen by far. It's also naive to think that politics is going to reverse that change - it's a technological problem.

Technological progress is not the problem! We have better energy efficiency than ever, overpopulation and especially "modern comfort" are the real culprits.

Moreover, bioplastics, fusion and next-gen battery tech could mitigate world pollution if they become cheaper than "dirty" tech.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#102

Post by bryanlarsen » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:34 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #39

yokaze wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or laws/taxes are passed, which incorporate the externalities, and subventions for detrimental efforts are cut. That is "just" a matter of political will.

How much war are you willing to wage to force other countries to do the same? I think that's really the only question that matters when it comes to the "everybody pass laws" plan.

No war necessary. Make it a condition of trade, a carbon tariff. If a sizable block of countries requires this any country without a carbon tax will be at a significant trade disadvantage.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#103

Post by kmlx » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:34 PM UTC

K0SM0S wrote: post #66

kmlx wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the overpopulation mantra has been debunked so many times already. edit: since i'm getting downvoted for pointing out the obvious, here's links pointing out that overpopulation is a myth, even a racist one in some circumstances: wapo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-the... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fee.org/articles/the-myth-tha... https://www.pop.org/debunking-the-myth-of-overpopulation/…

Indeed, if we only think in terms of thermodynamics, the Earth could sustain trillions of people with ample private room (orders of magnitude more than our current average home+office size). And if you trickle down to implementation problems (agriculture, logistics, etc) and take mega-structures of the 25th century out from the equation (so, immediate future, 21st century) you still get a max figure north of 10 times…

i think we've been adapting to our ecosystem since humans first came into the scene.

the only difference now is that we finally realised we're living on a planet that's not constant, but actually changing. this realisation is a positive in my book, as an extinction level event is always around the corner.

re. how many will die: the plague has been constantly killing humans for almost 1000 years now. and we're still here. yes, i'm an optimist.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#104

Post by Consultant32452 » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:36 PM UTC

X0Refraction wrote: post #98

Consultant32452 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very happy path engineering design. What will you do with countries who refuse to comply? Will you bomb them? Will you sanction/starve them to death? Is this really an existential crisis for our species? I want to know what cards you're willing to put on the table.

Tariff's don't have to be high enough to starve out countries to cause change, most people seem to agree that the Chinese people only tolerate the CCP because their economy is growing, if tariff's slowed that then they'd be under pressure to do something to fix it. There are similar situations in countries all over the world. Personally I think it is an existential threat to our way of life - if you take the most con…

Major nuclear powers have a significant portion of their economies tied up in fossil fuels. They will not go down without a fight.

China already emits 2x US CO2 and is on track to double its emissions by 2030. There is no scale of trade war/tariffs I can imagine that will derail this.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#105

Post by kmlx » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:38 PM UTC

skilled wrote: post #99

kmlx wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

weather isn't climate

climate /ˈklʌɪmət/ noun the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period. "our cold, wet climate"

how can one copy paste an explanation without reading it?

"over a long period of time."

hot outside right now != climate is hot.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#106

Post by imtringued » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:43 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #95

windexh8er wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your logic assumes everything in the world to be equal. The world is messy. If we don't start we all lose. The Internet wasn't bootstrapped because the world's countries all agreed on exactly the right way to implement networks and protocols and there are countries that have both contributed very little opposed to those that have contributed a lot. Moving to clean energy has huge economic advantage. So, again, your g…

>If we don't start we all lose. I didn't suggest we don't start. I suggested the "everyone pass laws" plan has a fatal flaw the size of China and India. >your get on board or be destroyed is counterproductive and irrational. That's not my plan, it's yours. "Laws" are the get on board or be destroyed approach. You can do it domestically pretty easy, but it's much harder across national boundaries. >Heavy, one off, pol…

Why would you need to stop China? They have invested more into renewable energy and electric transportation than any other country.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#107

Post by mistermann » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:47 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #39

yokaze wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or laws/taxes are passed, which incorporate the externalities, and subventions for detrimental efforts are cut. That is "just" a matter of political will.

How much war are you willing to wage to force other countries to do the same? I think that's really the only question that matters when it comes to the "everybody pass laws" plan.

I'd say another question worth asking is whether waging war, or antagonism of any kind, is the optimal way to approach this problem.

This seems to be the overwhelmingly preferred approach, but my intuition tells me that seeking a mutually agreeable path of cooperation would be a wiser approach. Not that this is easy of course - heck, even getting people to realize that we aren't actually doing this seems fairly impossible.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#108

Post by X0Refraction » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:50 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #104

X0Refraction wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tariff's don't have to be high enough to starve out countries to cause change, most people seem to agree that the Chinese people only tolerate the CCP because their economy is growing, if tariff's slowed that then they'd be under pressure to do something to fix it. There are similar situations in countries all over the world. Personally I think it is an existential threat to our way of life - if you take the most con…

Major nuclear powers have a significant portion of their economies tied up in fossil fuels. They will not go down without a fight. China already emits 2x US CO2 and is on track to double its emissions by 2030. There is no scale of trade war/tariffs I can imagine that will derail this.

Let's turn this around, if the markets that China sell to implement tariff's dependent on fossil fuel usage what do you expect them to do? How do you expect them to "fight" that?

Do you expect they'll just give up selling to those markets entirely? That would lead to less manufacturing in China and a reduction in carbon output from the country. Manufacturing in the US/EU etc. would likely take up some of the slack, but at a much lower carbon output and higher price.

Do you expect them to just continue selling with the tariff? That would lead to a reduction in sales, a reduction in manufacturing, a reduction in carbon output. As before I'd guess manufacturing in the US/EU etc. would take some of the slack.

Or do you expect them to start a war over it? Do you think killing their customers makes sense to them?

Personally I think it much more likely that they'd make the required changes, increase prices accordingly and continue to be the manufacturing hub of the world. Currently they have no reason to curb their carbon usage, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't do it if they were given an economic reason.

I am genuinely interested in how you think they'd "fight" a carbon tax from the US/EU etc., because I can't see a way where it doesn't reduce the amount of carbon being released compared to a world without the carbon tax.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#109

Post by Consultant32452 » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:54 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #106

Consultant32452 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If we don't start we all lose. I didn't suggest we don't start. I suggested the "everyone pass laws" plan has a fatal flaw the size of China and India. >your get on board or be destroyed is counterproductive and irrational. That's not my plan, it's yours. "Laws" are the get on board or be destroyed approach. You can do it domestically pretty easy, but it's much harder across national boundaries. >Heavy, one off, pol…

Why would you need to stop China? They have invested more into renewable energy and electric transportation than any other country.

If we accept the axiom that CO2 emissions are an eminent threat to the existence of humanity, then I think the answer is obvious. This isn't a friendly competition for who can invest the most in green tech. This is a life or death race to rid the world of carbon emissions. The world's largest polluter doubling its emissions over the next decade cannot be accepted under those conditions.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#110

Post by NeedMoreTea » Sat, Jan 04, 2020, 3:58 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #95

windexh8er wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your logic assumes everything in the world to be equal. The world is messy. If we don't start we all lose. The Internet wasn't bootstrapped because the world's countries all agreed on exactly the right way to implement networks and protocols and there are countries that have both contributed very little opposed to those that have contributed a lot. Moving to clean energy has huge economic advantage. So, again, your g…

>If we don't start we all lose. I didn't suggest we don't start. I suggested the "everyone pass laws" plan has a fatal flaw the size of China and India. >your get on board or be destroyed is counterproductive and irrational. That's not my plan, it's yours. "Laws" are the get on board or be destroyed approach. You can do it domestically pretty easy, but it's much harder across national boundaries. >Heavy, one off, pol…

China will stop when they contracted to and not before -- although their rapidly declining air quality may influence more action sooner. They have had a "developing country" pass through UN climate agreements as did India. I suspect no one 30 years ago expected us to be little further forward, nor China and India having mostly developed past "developing" status. COP25 was a joke sadly, so, we're screwed...

I think China committed and signed on to start reducing emissions in 2025 or 2030, I forget which.